The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationDue to the popularity of Web 2.0 and Social Media in the last decade, the percolation of user generated content (UGC) has rapidly increased. In the financial realm, this results in the emergence of virtual investing communities (VIC) to the investing public. There is an on-going debate among scholars and practitioners on whether such UGC contain valuable investing information or mainly noise. I investigate two major studies in my dissertation. First I examine the relationship between peer influence and information quality in the context of individual characteristics in stock microblogging. Surprisingly, I discover that the set of individual characteristics that relate to peer influence is not synonymous with those that relate to high information quality. In relating to information quality, influentials who are frequently mentioned by peers due to their name value are likely to possess higher information quality while those who are better at diffusing information via retweets are likely to associate with lower information quality. Second I propose a study to explore predictability of stock microblog dimensions and features over stock price directional movements using data mining classification techniques. I find that author-ticker-day dimension produces the highest predictive accuracy inferring that this dimension is able to capture both relevant author and ticker information as compared to author-day and ticker-day. In addition to these two studies, I also explore two topics: network structure of co-tweeted tickers and sentiment annotation via crowdsourcing. I do this in order to understand and uncover new features as well as new outcome indicators with the objective of improving predictive accuracy of the classification or saliency of the explanatory models. My dissertation work extends the frontier in understanding the relationship between financial UGC, specifically stock microblogging with relevant phenomena as well as predictive outcomes

Sentiment analysis and real-time microblog search

This thesis sets out to examine the role played by sentiment in real-time microblog search. The recent prominence of the real-time web is proving both challenging and disruptive for a number of areas of research, notably information retrieval and web data mining. User-generated content on the real-time web is perhaps best epitomised by content on microblogging platforms, such as Twitter. Given the substantial quantity of microblog posts that may be relevant to a user query at a given point in time, automated methods are required to enable users to sift through this information. As an area of research reaching maturity, sentiment analysis offers a promising direction for modelling the text content in microblog streams. In this thesis we review the real-time web as a new area of focus for sentiment analysis, with a specific focus on microblogging. We propose a system and method for evaluating the effect of sentiment on perceived search quality in real-time microblog search scenarios. Initially we provide an evaluation of sentiment analysis using supervised learning for classi- fying the short, informal content in microblog posts. We then evaluate our sentiment-based filtering system for microblog search in a user study with simulated real-time scenarios. Lastly, we conduct real-time user studies for the live broadcast of the popular television programme, the X Factor, and for the Leaders Debate during the Irish General Election. We find that we are able to satisfactorily classify positive, negative and neutral sentiment in microblog posts. We also find a significant role played by sentiment in many microblog search scenarios, observing some detrimental effects in filtering out certain sentiment types. We make a series of observations regarding associations between document-level sentiment and user feedback, including associations with user profile attributes, and users’ prior topic sentiment

Stock Prediction Analyzing Investor Sentiments

We are going through a phase of data evolution where a major portion of the data from our daily lives is now been stored on social media platforms. In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. In the financial sector, sentiments are also of paramount importance, and this dissertation mainly focuses on the effect of sentiments from investors [3] on the behavior of stocks. The dissertation work leverages social data from Twitter and seeks the sentiment of certain investors. Once the sentiment of the tweets is calculated using an advanced sentiment analyzer, it is used as an additional attribute to the other fundamental properties of the stock. This dissertation demonstrates how incorporating the sentiments improves forecasting accuracy of predicting stock valuation. In addition, various experimental analysis on regression based statistical models are considered which show statistical measures to consider for effectively predicting the closing price of the stock. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that stock market prices are largely driven by additional information and follow a random walk pattern [7, 8, 37, 39, 41]. Though this hypothesis is widely accepted by the research community as a central paradigm governing the markets in general, several people have attempted to extract patterns in the way stock markets behave and respond to external stimuli. We test a hypothesis based on the premise of behavioral economics, that the emotions and moods of individuals basically the sentiments affect their decision-making process, thus, leading to a direct correlation between ?public sentiment? and ?market sentiment? [42, 43, 44, 45]. We first select key investors from Twitter [27, 28] whose sentiments matter and do sentiment analysis on the tweets pertaining to stock related information. Once we retrieve the sentiment for every stock, we combine this information with the other fundamental information about stocks and build different regression-based prediction models to predict their closing price