The impact of Mean Time Between Disasters on inventory pre-positioning strategy

Purpose - This paper addresses the impact of Mean Time Between Disasters (MTBD) to inventory pre-positioning strategy of medical supplies prior to a sudden-onset disaster

Numerical Solution of Dynamic Equilibrium Models under Poisson Uncertainty

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households.continuous-time DSGE, Poisson uncertainty, waveform relaxation

Rules Rather Than Discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

This paper explores options for programs to be put in place prior to a disaster to avoid large and often poorly-managed expenditures following a catastrophe and to provide appropriate protection against the risk of those large losses which do occur. The lack of interest in insurance protection and mitigation by property owners and by public sector agencies prior to a disaster often creates major problems following a catastrophic event for victims and the government. Property owners who suffer severe damage may not have the financial resources easily at hand to rebuild their property and hence will demand relief. The government is then likely to respond with costly but poorly targeted disaster assistance. To avoid these large and often uneven ex post expenditures, we consider the option of mandatory comprehensive private disaster insurance with risk based rates. It may be more efficient to have an ex ante public program to ensure coverage of catastrophic losses and to subsidize low income residents who cannot afford coverage rather than the current largely ex post public disaster relief program.

A cognitive architecture for emergency response

Plan recognition, cognitive workload estimation and human assistance have been extensively studied in the AI and human factors communities, resulting in many techniques being applied to domains of various levels of realism. These techniques have seldom been integrated and evaluated as complete systems. In this paper, we report on the development of an assistant agent architecture that integrates plan recognition, current and future user information needs, workload estimation and adaptive information presentation to aid an emergency response manager in making high quality decisions under time stress, while avoiding cognitive overload. We describe the main components of a full implementation of this architecture as well as a simulation developed to evaluate the system. Our evaluation consists of simulating various possible executions of the emergency response plans used in the real world and measuring the expected time taken by an unaided human user, as well as one that receives information assistance from our system. In the experimental condition of agent assistance, we also examine the effects of different error rates in the agent's estimation of user's stat or information needs

Epidemiological evaluation of cat health at a first-response animal shelter in Fukushima, following the Great East Japan Earthquakes of 2011.

The Great East Japan Earthquakes of March 11, 2011 caused immense harm to the community and subsequent nuclear accident in Fukushima Prefecture extended the damage. Local residents were forced to evacuated without pets and the left behind animals were rescued from the restricted zone one month later. Unplanned animal rescue and unregulated sheltering caused secondary damage to animals such as disease epidemics at impounded animal shelter. The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the incidence of upper respiratory infection (URI) and diarrhea in cats at the first response animal shelter in Fukushima, and investigate factors affecting the duration of disease and determinants of treatments performed. Eighty percent and 59% of impounded cats developed URI, 71% and 54% of cats developed diarrhea, and 91% and 83% of cats had at least one disease in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Uses of multiple drug administration (more than five drugs) was associated with prolonged URI and diarrhea. Multiple antibiotics, antihistamines, interferon, and steroids were associated with relapse of and prolonged URI. Developing a standardized treatment protocol for commonly observed diseases at Japanese animal shelters to prevent and control diseases, to promote animal welfare, and protect public health in the face of future disasters is overdue

Transition Policy: A Conceptual Framework

Legal change, whether through legislation, regulation, or court decision, is a common phenomenon, and virtually all reform creates both gains and losses for those who under the prior regime took actions that would have lasting effects. This article offers a conceptual framework for assessing the desirability of different transition policies, ranging from compensation of losses and taxation of gains, grandfathering of pre-enactment investments, and delayed or partial implementation to complete and immediate implementation or even retroactive application. Emphasis is placed on how transitions and various mitigation strategies affect the incentives of and risk borne by private actors as well as on the behavior of government and how it may be affected by transition policy.

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth

We examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. We assess the counterfactual of the cases studied by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run. However, we also show that this result from two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. We also find that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output in the short run or in the long run.Natural Disasters, Political Change, Economic Growth and Causal Effects.