Estimating causal networks in biosphere–atmosphere interaction with the PCMCI approach

Local meteorological conditions and biospheric activity are tightly coupled. Understanding these links is an essential prerequisite for predicting the Earth system under climate change conditions. However, many empirical studies on the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere are based on correlative approaches that are not able to deduce causal paths, and only very few studies apply causal discovery methods. Here, we use a recently proposed causal graph discovery algorithm, which aims to reconstruct the causal dependency structure underlying a set of time series. We explore the potential of this method to infer temporal dependencies in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Specifically we address the following questions: How do periodicity and heteroscedasticity influence causal detection rates, i.e. the detection of existing and non-existing links? How consistent are results for noise-contaminated data? Do results exhibit an increased information content that justifies the use of this causal-inference method? We explore the first question using artificial time series with well known dependencies that mimic real-world biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The two remaining questions are addressed jointly in two case studies utilizing observational data. Firstly, we analyse three replicated eddy covariance datasets from a Mediterranean ecosystem at half hourly time resolution allowing us to understand the impact of measurement uncertainties. Secondly, we analyse global NDVI time series (GIMMS 3g) along with gridded climate data to study large-scale climatic drivers of vegetation greenness. Overall, the results confirm the capacity of the causal discovery method to extract time-lagged linear dependencies under realistic settings. The violation of the method's assumptions increases the likelihood to detect false links. Nevertheless, we consistently identify interaction patterns in observational data. Our findings suggest that estimating a directed biosphere-atmosphere network at the ecosystem level can offer novel possibilities to unravel complex multi-directional interactions. Other than classical correlative approaches, our findings are constrained to a few meaningful set of relations which can be powerful insights for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem models

Comparing Star Formation on Large Scales in the c2d Legacy Clouds: Bolocam 1.1 mm Dust Continuum Surveys of Serpens, Perseus, and Ophiuchus

We have undertaken an unprecedentedly large 1.1 millimeter continuum survey of three nearby star forming clouds using Bolocam at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory. We mapped the largest areas in each cloud at millimeter or submillimeter wavelengths to date: 7.5 sq. deg in Perseus (Paper I), 10.8 sq. deg in Ophiuchus (Paper II), and 1.5 sq. deg in Serpens with a resolution of 31", detecting 122, 44, and 35 cores, respectively. Here we report on results of the Serpens survey and compare the three clouds. Average measured angular core sizes and their dependence on resolution suggest that many of the observed sources are consistent with power-law density profiles. Tests of the effects of cloud distance reveal that linear resolution strongly affects measured source sizes and densities, but not the shape of the mass distribution. Core mass distribution slopes in Perseus and Ophiuchus (alpha=2.1+/-0.1 and alpha=2.1+/-0.3) are consistent with recent measurements of the stellar IMF, whereas the Serpens distribution is flatter (alpha=1.6+/-0.2). We also compare the relative mass distribution shapes to predictions from turbulent fragmentation simulations. Dense cores constitute less than 10% of the total cloud mass in all three clouds, consistent with other measurements of low star-formation efficiencies. Furthermore, most cores are found at high column densities; more than 75% of 1.1 mm cores are associated with Av>8 mag in Perseus, 15 mag in Serpens, and 20-23 mag in Ophiuchus.Comment: 32 pages, including 18 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The COBE Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment Search for the Cosmic Infrared Background: I. Limits and Detections

The DIRBE on the COBE spacecraft was designed primarily to conduct systematic search for an isotropic CIB in ten photometric bands from 1.25 to 240 microns. The results of that search are presented here. Conservative limits on the CIB are obtained from the minimum observed brightness in all-sky maps at each wavelength, with the faintest limits in the DIRBE spectral range being at 3.5 microns (\nu I_\nu < 64 nW/m^2/sr, 95% CL) and at 240 microns (\nu I_\nu < 28 nW/m^2/sr, 95% CL). The bright foregrounds from interplanetary dust scattering and emission, stars, and interstellar dust emission are the principal impediments to the DIRBE measurements of the CIB. These foregrounds have been modeled and removed from the sky maps. Assessment of the random and systematic uncertainties in the residuals and tests for isotropy show that only the 140 and 240 microns data provide candidate detections of the CIB. The residuals and their uncertainties provide CIB upper limits more restrictive than the dark sky limits at wavelengths from 1.25 to 100 microns. No plausible solar system or Galactic source of the observed 140 and 240 microns residuals can be identified, leading to the conclusion that the CIB has been detected at levels of \nu I_\nu = 25+-7 and 14+-3 nW/m^2/sr at 140 and 240 microns respectively. The integrated energy from 140 to 240 microns, 10.3 nW/m^2/sr, is about twice the integrated optical light from the galaxies in the Hubble Deep Field, suggesting that star formation might have been heavily enshrouded by dust at high redshift. The detections and upper limits reported here provide new constraints on models of the history of energy-releasing processes and dust production since the decoupling of the cosmic microwave background from matter.Comment: 26 pages and 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophyical Journa

SPIRE Point Source Catalog Explanatory Supplement

The Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) was launched as one of the scientific instruments on board of the space observatory Herschel. The SPIRE photometer opened up an entirely new window in the Submillimeter domain for large scale mapping, that up to then was very difficult to observe. There are already several catalogs that were produced by individual Herschel science projects. Yet, we estimate that the objects of only a fraction of these maps will ever be systematically extracted and published by the science teams that originally proposed the observations. The SPIRE instrument performed its standard photometric observations in an optically very stable configuration, only moving the telescope across the sky, with variations in its configuration parameters limited to scan speed and sampling rate. This and the scarcity of features in the data that require special processing steps made this dataset very attractive for producing an expert reduced catalog of point sources that is being described in this document. The Catalog was extracted from a total of 6878 unmodified SPIRE scan map observations. The photometry was obtained by a systematic and homogeneous source extraction procedure, followed by a rigorous quality check that emphasized reliability over completeness. Having to exclude regions affected by strong Galactic emission, that pushed the limits of the four source extraction methods that were used, this catalog is aimed primarily at the extragalactic community. The result can serve as a pathfinder for ALMA and other Submillimeter and Far-Infrared facilities. 1,693,718 sources are included in the final catalog, splitting into 950688, 524734, 218296 objects for the 250\mu m, 350\mu m, and 500\mu m bands, respectively. The catalog comes with well characterized environments, reliability, completeness, and accuracies, that single programs typically cannot provide

Probes of Lorentz Violation in Neutrino Propagation

It has been suggested that the interactions of energetic particles with the foamy structure of space-time thought to be generated by quantum-gravitational (QG) effects might violate Lorentz invariance, so that they do not propagate at a universal speed of light. We consider the limits that may be set on a linear or quadratic violation of Lorentz invariance in the propagation of energetic neutrinos, v/c=[1 +- (E/M_\nuQG1)] or [1 +- (E/M_\nu QG2}^2], using data from supernova explosions and the OPERA long-baseline neutrino experiment. Using the SN1987a neutrino data from the Kamioka II, IMB and Baksan experiments, we set the limits M_\nuQG1 > 2.7(2.5)x10^10 GeV for subluminal (superluminal) propagation, respectively, and M_\nuQG2 >4.6(4.1)x10^4 GeV at the 95% confidence level. A future galactic supernova at a distance of 10 kpc would have sensitivity to M_\nuQG1 > 2(4)x10^11 GeV for subluminal (superluminal) propagation, respectively, and M_\nuQG2 > 2(4)x10^5 GeV. With the current CNGS extraction spill length of 10.5 micro seconds and with standard clock synchronization techniques, the sensitivity of the OPERA experiment would reach M_\nuQG1 ~ 7x10^5 GeV (M_\nuQG2 ~ 8x10^3 GeV) after 5 years of nominal running. If the time structure of the SPS RF bunches within the extracted CNGS spills could be exploited, these figures would be significantly improved to M_\nuQG1 ~ 5x10^7 GeV (M_\nuQG2 ~ 4x10^4 GeV). These results can be improved further if similar time resolution can be achieved with neutrino events occurring in the rock upstream of the OPERA detector: we find potential sensitivities to M_\nuQG1 ~ 4x10^8 GeV and M_\nuQG2 ~ 7x10^5 GeV.Comment: 33 pages, 22 figures, version accepted for publication in Physical Review