1,531 research outputs found

    Graph Matching Based Decision Support Tools For Mitigating Spread Of Infectious Diseases Like H1N1

    Get PDF
    Diseases like H1N1 can be prevented from becoming a wide spread epidemic through timely detection and containment measures. Similarity of H1N1 symptoms to any common flu and its alarming rate of spread through animals and humans complicate the deployment of such strategies. We use dynamic implementation of graph matching methods to overcome these challenges. Specifically, we formulate a mixed integer programming model (MIP) that analyzes patient symptom data available at hospitals to generate patient graph match scores. Successful matches are then used to update counters that generate alerts to the Public Health Department when the counters surpass the threshold values. Since multiple factors like age, health status, etc., influence vulnerability of exposed population and severity of those already infected, a heuristic that dynamically updates patient graph match scores based on the values of these factors is developed. To better understand the gravity of the situation at hand and achieve timely containment, the rate of infection and size of infected population in a specific region needs to be estimated. To this effect, we propose an algorithm that clusters the hospitals in a region based on the population they serve. Hospitals grouped together affect counters that are local to the population they serve. Analysis of graph match scores and counter values specific to the cluster helps identify the region that needs containment attention and determine the size and severity of infection in that region. We demonstrate the application of our models via a case study on emergency department patients arriving at hospitals in Buffalo, NY

    Operations research in disaster preparedness and response: The public health perspective

    Get PDF
    Operations research is the scientific study of operations for the purpose of better decision making and management. Disasters are defined as events whose consequences exceed the capability of civil protection and public health systems to provide necessary responses in a timely manner. Public health science is applied to the design of operations of public health services and therefore operations research principles and techniques can be applied in public health. Disaster response quantitative methods such as operations research addressing public health are important tools for planning effective responses to disasters. Models address a variety of decision makers (e.g. first responders, public health officials), geographic settings, strategies modelled (e.g. dispensing, supply chain network design, prevention or mitigation of disaster effects, treatment) and outcomes evaluated (costs, morbidity, mortality, logistical outcomes) and use a range of modelling methodologies. Regarding natural disasters the modelling approaches have been rather limited. Response logistics related to public health impact of disasters have been modelled more intensively since decisions about procurement, transport, stockpiling, and maintenance of needed supplies but also mass vaccination, prophylaxis, and treatment are essential in the emergency management. Major issues at all levels of disaster response decision making, including long-range strategic planning, tactical response planning, and real-time operational support are still unresolved and operations research can provide useful techniques for decision management.-JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen

    Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola.

    Get PDF
    As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts

    Protocol for the COG-UK hospital-onset COVID-19 infection (HOCI) multicentre interventional clinical study: evaluating the efficacy of rapid genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in limiting the spread of COVID-19 in UK NHS hospitals

    Get PDF
    OBJECTIVES: Nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been a significant cause of mortality in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COG-UK Consortium Hospital-Onset COVID-19 Infections (COG-UK HOCI) study aims to evaluate whether the use of rapid whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, supported by a novel probabilistic reporting methodology, can inform infection prevention and control (IPC) practice within NHS hospital settings. DESIGN: Multicentre, prospective, interventional, superiority study. SETTING: 14 participating NHS hospitals over winter–spring 2020/2021 in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible patients must be admitted to hospital with first-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive test result >48 hour from time of admission, where COVID-19 diagnosis not suspected on admission. The projected sample size is 2380 patients. INTERVENTION: The intervention is the return of a sequence report, within 48 hours in one phase (rapid local lab processing) and within 5–10 days in a second phase (mimicking central lab), comparing the viral genome from an eligible study participant with others within and outside the hospital site. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes are incidence of Public Health England (PHE)/IPC-defined SARS-CoV-2 hospital-acquired infection during the baseline and two interventional phases, and proportion of hospital-onset cases with genomic evidence of transmission linkage following implementation of the intervention where such linkage was not suspected by initial IPC investigation. Secondary outcomes include incidence of hospital outbreaks, with and without sequencing data; actual and desirable changes to IPC actions; periods of healthcare worker (HCW) absence. Health economic analysis will be conducted to determine cost benefit of the intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews with HCWs will be conducted alongside the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN50212645. Pre-results stage. This manuscript is based on protocol V.6.0. 2 September 2021

    Measuring distance through dense weighted networks: The case of hospital-associated pathogens

    Get PDF
    Hospital networks, formed by patients visiting multiple hospitals, affect the spread of hospital-associated infections, resulting in differences in risks for hospitals depending on their network position. These networks are increasingly used to inform strategies to prevent and control the spread of hospital-associated pathogens. However, many studies only consider patients that are received directly from the initial hospital, without considering the effect of indirect trajectories through the network. We determine the optimal way to measure the distance between hospitals within the network, by reconstructing the English hospital network based on shared patients in 2014–2015, and simulating the spread of a hospital-associated pathogen between hospitals, taking into consideration that each intermediate hospital conveys a delay in the further spread of the pathogen. While the risk of transferring a hospital-associated pathogen between directly neighbouring hospitals is a direct reflection of the number of shared patients, the distance between two hospitals far-away in the network is determined largely by the number of intermediate hospitals in the network. Because the network is dense, most long distance transmission chains in fact involve only few intermediate steps, spreading along the many weak links. The dense connectivity of hospital networks, together with a strong regional structure, causes hospital-associated pathogens to spread from the initial outbreak in a two-step process: first, the directly surrounding hospitals are affected through the strong connections, second all other hospitals receive introductions through the multitude of weaker links. Although the strong connections matter for local spread, weak links in the network can offer ideal routes for hospital-associated pathogens to travel further faster. This hold important implications for infection prevention and control efforts: if a local outbreak is not controlled in time, colonised patients will appear in other regions, irrespective of the distance to the initial outbreak, making import screening ever more difficult

    Syndromic surveillance: reports from a national conference, 2003

    Get PDF
    Overview of Syndromic Surveillance -- What is Syndromic Surveillance? -- Linking Better Surveillance to Better Outcomes -- Review of the 2003 National Syndromic Surveillance Conference - Lessons Learned and Questions To Be Answered -- -- System Descriptions -- New York City Syndromic Surveillance Systems -- Syndrome and Outbreak Detection Using Chief-Complaint Data - Experience of the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance Project -- Removing a Barrier to Computer-Based Outbreak and Disease Surveillance - The RODS Open Source Project -- National Retail Data Monitor for Public Health Surveillance -- National Bioterrorism Syndromic Surveillance Demonstration Program -- Daily Emergency Department Surveillance System - Bergen County, New Jersey -- Hospital Admissions Syndromic Surveillance - Connecticut, September 2001-November 2003 -- BioSense - A National Initiative for Early Detection and Quantification of Public Health Emergencies -- Syndromic Surveillance at Hospital Emergency Departments - Southeastern Virginia -- -- Research Methods -- Bivariate Method for Spatio-Temporal Syndromic Surveillance -- Role of Data Aggregation in Biosurveillance Detection Strategies with Applications from ESSENCE -- Scan Statistics for Temporal Surveillance for Biologic Terrorism -- Approaches to Syndromic Surveillance When Data Consist of Small Regional Counts -- Algorithm for Statistical Detection of Peaks - Syndromic Surveillance System for the Athens 2004 Olympic Games -- Taming Variability in Free Text: Application to Health Surveillance -- Comparison of Two Major Emergency Department-Based Free-Text Chief-Complaint Coding Systems -- How Many Illnesses Does One Emergency Department Visit Represent? Using a Population-Based Telephone Survey To Estimate the Syndromic Multiplier -- Comparison of Office Visit and Nurse Advice Hotline Data for Syndromic Surveillance - Baltimore-Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Area, 2002 -- Progress in Understanding and Using Over-the-Counter Pharmaceuticals for Syndromic Surveillance -- -- Evaluation -- Evaluation Challenges for Syndromic Surveillance - Making Incremental Progress -- Measuring Outbreak-Detection Performance By Using Controlled Feature Set Simulations -- Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems - Design of an Epidemic Simulation Model -- Benchmark Data and Power Calculations for Evaluating Disease Outbreak Detection Methods -- Bio-ALIRT Biosurveillance Detection Algorithm Evaluation -- ESSENCE II and the Framework for Evaluating Syndromic Surveillance Systems -- Conducting Population Behavioral Health Surveillance by Using Automated Diagnostic and Pharmacy Data Systems -- Evaluation of an Electronic General-Practitioner-Based Syndromic Surveillance System -- National Symptom Surveillance Using Calls to a Telephone Health Advice Service - United Kingdom, December 2001-February 2003 -- Field Investigations of Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance Signals - New York City -- Should We Be Worried? Investigation of Signals Generated by an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System - Westchester County, New York -- -- Public Health Practice -- Public Health Information Network - Improving Early Detection by Using a Standards-Based Approach to Connecting Public Health and Clinical Medicine -- Information System Architectures for Syndromic Surveillance -- Perspective of an Emergency Physician Group as a Data Provider for Syndromic Surveillance -- SARS Surveillance Project - Internet-Enabled Multiregion Surveillance for Rapidly Emerging Disease -- Health Information Privacy and Syndromic Surveillance SystemsPapers from the second annual National Syndromic Surveillance Conference convened by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the New York Academy of Medicine, and the CDC in New York City during Oct. 23-24, 2003. Published as the September 24, 2004 supplement to vol. 53 of MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report.1571461

    Reliability and validity of EMS dispatch code-based categorization of emergency patients for syndromic surveillance.

    Get PDF
    A retrospective study involving the secondary analysis of public health surveillance records was undertaken to characterize the reliability and validity of an EMS dispatch data-based scheme for assigning emergency patients to surveillance syndromes in relation to two other schemes, one based on hospital ED clinicians\u27 manual categorization according to patients\u27 chief complaint and clinical presentation, and one based on ICD-9 coded hospital ED diagnoses. Comparisons of a sample of individual emergency patients\u27 syndrome assignments according to the EMS versus each of the two hospital categorization schemes were made by matching EMS run records to their corresponding emergency department patient encounter records. This new, linked dataset was analyzed to assess the level of agreement beyond chance between the three possible pairs of syndrome categorization schemes in assigning patients to a respiratory or non-respiratory syndrome and to a gastrointestinal or non-gastrointestinal syndrome. Cohen\u27s kappa statistics were used to measure chance-adjusted agreement between categorization schemes (raters). Z-tests and a chi-square-like test based on the variance of the kappa statistic were used to test the equivalence of kappa coefficients across syndromes, population subgroups and pairs of syndrome assignment schemes. The sensitivity, specificity, predictive value positive and predictive value negative of EMS dispatch and chief complaint-based categorization schemes were also calculated, using the ICD-9-coded ED diagnosis-based categorization scheme as the criterion standard. Comparisons of all performance characteristic (i.e. sensitivity, specificity, predictive value positive and predictive value negative) values were made across categorization schemes and surveillance syndromes to determine whether they were significantly different. The use of EMS dispatch codes for assigning emergency patients to surveillance syndromes was found to have limited but statistically significant reliability in relation to more commonly used syndrome grouping methods based on chief complaints or ICD-9 coded ED diagnoses. The reliability of EMS-based syndrome assignment varied significantly by syndrome, age group and comparison rater. When ICD-9 coded ED diagnosis-based grouping is taken as the criterion standard of syndrome definition, the validity of EMS-based syndrome assignment was limited but comparable to chief complaint-based assignment. The validity of EMS-based syndrome assignment varied significantly by syndrome

    Unlocking Doors: A TinyML-based Approach for real-time Face Mask Detection in Door Lock Systems

    Get PDF
    In response to the rapid spread of coronaviruses, including COVID-19 and seasonal common cold viruses, this article introduces a proposed system for enhancing door lock systems using TinyML technology for real-time face mask detection. The research project focuses on developing a machine learning model based on the YOLOv5 architecture to classify individuals based on their mask-wearing behavior correctly, incorrectly, or not at all in high-risk spaces prone to the transmission of coronaviruses, such as healthcare facilities, laboratories, and public settings. The study outlines the hardware and software tools utilized, including the Raspberry Pi 4, camera hardware, and the YOLOv5 machine learning model. The model is trained using a dataset containing three different classes and converted to a TFLite format for efficient implementation on the Raspberry Pi. Evaluation results demonstrate a mean Average Precision (mAP) of 0.99 and an inference rate of 10FPS for a 128-frame size input. This proposed system offers practical implications for enhancing door lock systems and promoting public health and safety during outbreaks of coronaviruses, including COVID-19 and other seasonal coronaviruses, providing a valuable approach to decrease the spread of these diseases and mitigate transmission risks in high-risk spaces, thereby contributing to the overall reduction of public health threats
    • …
    corecore