Detection of Causal Relations in Time Series Affected by Noise in Tokamaks Using Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds

Modern experiments in Magnetic Confinement Nuclear Fusion can produce Gigabytes of data, mainly in form of time series. The acquired signals, composing massive databases, are typically affected by significant levels of noise. The interpretation of the time series can therefore become quite involved, particularly when tenuous causal relations have to be investigated. In the last years, synchronization experiments, to control potentially dangerous instabilities, have become a subject of intensive research. Their interpretation requires quite delicate causality analysis. In this paper, the approach of Information Geometry is applied to the problem of assessing the effectiveness of synchronization experiments on JET (Joint European Torus). In particular, the use of the Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds is shown to improve the results of advanced techniques such as Recurrent Plots and Complex Networks, when the noise level is not negligible. In cases affected by particularly high levels of noise, compromising the traditional treatments, the use of the Geodesic Distance on Gaussian Manifolds allows deriving quite encouraging results. In addition to consolidating conclusions previously quite uncertain, it has been demonstrated that the proposed approach permit to successfully analyze signals of discharges which were otherwise unusable, therefore salvaging the interpretation of those experiments.EURATOM 63305

On the Use of Transfer Entropy to Investigate the Time Horizon of Causal Influences between Signals

Peer reviewe

A machine learning approach based on generative topographic mapping for disruption prevention and avoidance at JET

The need for predictive capabilities greater than 95% with very limited false alarms are demanding requirements for reliable disruption prediction systems in tokamaks such as JET or, in the near future, ITER. The prediction of an upcoming disruption must be provided sufficiently in advance in order to apply effective disruption avoidance or mitigation actions to prevent the machine from being damaged. In this paper, following the typical machine learning workflow, a generative topographic mapping (GTM) of the operational space of JET has been built using a set of disrupted and regularly terminated discharges. In order to build the predictive model, a suitable set of dimensionless, machine-independent, physics-based features have been synthesized, which make use of 1D plasma profile information, rather than simple zero-D time series. The use of such predicting features, together with the power of the GTM in fitting the model to the data, obtains, in an unsupervised way, a 2D map of the multi-dimensional parameter space of JET, where it is possible to identify a boundary separating the region free from disruption from the disruption region. In addition to helping in operational boundaries studies, the GTM map can also be used for disruption prediction exploiting the potential of the developed GTM toolbox to monitor the discharge dynamics. Following the trajectory of a discharge on the map throughout the different regions, an alarm is triggered depending on the disruption risk of these regions. The proposed approach to predict disruptions has been evaluated on a training and an independent test set and achieves very good performance with only one tardive detection and a limited number of false detections. The warning times are suitable for avoidance purposes and, more important, the detections are consistent with physical causes and mechanisms that destabilize the plasma leading to disruptions.Peer reviewe

Nonlinear Dynamics

This volume covers a diverse collection of topics dealing with some of the fundamental concepts and applications embodied in the study of nonlinear dynamics. Each of the 15 chapters contained in this compendium generally fit into one of five topical areas: physics applications, nonlinear oscillators, electrical and mechanical systems, biological and behavioral applications or random processes. The authors of these chapters have contributed a stimulating cross section of new results, which provide a fertile spectrum of ideas that will inspire both seasoned researches and students

Topics in Magnetohydrodynamics

To understand plasma physics intuitively one need to master the MHD behaviors. As sciences advance, gap between published textbooks and cutting-edge researches gradually develops. Connection from textbook knowledge to up-to-dated research results can often be tough. Review articles can help. This book contains eight topical review papers on MHD. For magnetically confined fusion one can find toroidal MHD theory for tokamaks, magnetic relaxation process in spheromaks, and the formation and stability of field-reversed configuration. In space plasma physics one can get solar spicules and X-ray jets physics, as well as general sub-fluid theory. For numerical methods one can find the implicit numerical methods for resistive MHD and the boundary control formalism. For low temperature plasma physics one can read theory for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids etc