Meteorological buoy observations from the central Iceland Sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 3199–3208, doi:10.1002/2014JD022584.We present the first continuous in situ atmospheric observations from the central Iceland Sea collected from a meteorological buoy deployed for a 2 year period between 23 November 2007 and 21 August 2009. We use these observations to evaluate the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and demonstrate that it represented low-level meteorological fields and surface turbulent fluxes in this region very well. The buoy observations showed that moderate to strong winds were common from any direction, while wind speeds below 5 ms−1 were relatively rare. The observed low-level air temperature and surface heat fluxes were related to the wind direction with cold-air outbreaks most common from the northwest. Mean wintertime turbulent heat fluxes were modest (<60 Wm−2), but the range was substantial. High heat flux events, greater than 200 Wm−2, typically occurred every 1–2 weeks in the winter, with each event lasting on average 2.5 days with an average total turbulent heat flux of ∼200 Wm−2 out of the ocean. The most pronounced high heat flux events over the central Iceland Sea were associated with cold-air outbreaks from the north and west forced by a deep Lofoten Low over the Norwegian Sea.This work was funded in part by the Ocean and Climate Change Institute at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NSF grant OCE-1433958.2015-10-2

A Modeling Study of the Initial Formation of Polar Lows in the Vicinity of the Arctic Front

A regional mathematical model of the wind system of the lower atmosphere, developed recently in the Polar Geophysical Institute, is applied to investigate the initial stage of the formation of polar lows at latitudes of the European Arctic. The mathematical model is based on numerical solving of nonsimplified gas dynamic equations and produces three-dimensional distributions of the atmospheric parameters in the height range from 0 to 15 km over a limited region of the Earth’s surface. Simulation results indicated that the origin of a convexity in the configuration of the arctic front can lead to the formation of a polar low during the period of about one day

An objective global climatology of polar lows based on reanalysis data

Here an objective global climatology of polar lows has been developed. In order to obtain objective detection criteria the efficacy of several parameters for separating polar lows from other cyclones has been investigated. This parameter efficacy has been compared for polar lows subjectively identified by experts and for all kind of extra-tropical cyclones. The comparison is based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 - 2016 and the higher resolution Arctic System Reanalysis from 2000 - 2012. The parameters found to be the most effective at separating polar lows from all other kinds of synoptic and meso-scale cyclones were the difference between the mean sea-level pressure of the low and its surroundings, the difference in the potential temperature between the sea surface and the 500 hPa level, and the tropopause wind poleward of the system. Other parameters often used for distinguishing, such as the 10m wind speed and the temperature difference between the sea surface and the 700 hPa level were found to be less effective. Investigation of the climatologies reveals that PLs occur in all maritime basins at high latitudes, but with high density in the vicinity of the sea-ice edge and coastal zones. The regions showing the highest degree of polar-low activity are the Denmark Strait and the Nordic Seas. Especially the most intense polar lows occur in these two regions. In the North Atlantic and Pacific the main polar-low season ranges from November to March. In the Southern Hemisphere polar lows are mainly detected between 50 - 65'S from April to October, indicating that this hemisphere compared to its northern counterpart has a two months longer, but less intense, polar-low season. No significant hemispheric long-term trends are observed, although some regions, such as the Denmark Strait and the Nordic Sea experience significant downward and upward trends in polar lows, respectively, over the last decades. For intense polar lows a significant decaying trend has been observed for the northern hemisphere

Cold Air Outbreaks in Fram Strait: Climatology, Trends, and Observations During an Extreme Season in 2020

Fram Strait in the northern North Atlantic is a key region for marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), southward discharges of polar air under northerly air flow, which have a strong impact on air-sea heat fluxes, boundary layer processes and severe weather. This study investigates climatologies and decadal trends of Fram Strait MCAOs of different intensity classes based on the ERA5 reanalysis product for 1979–2020. Among striking interannual variability, it is shown that the main MCAO season is December through March, when MCAOs occur around 2/3 of the time. We report on significant decadal MCAO decreases in December and January, and a significant increase in March. While the mid-winter decrease is mainly related to the different paces of warming between the surface and the lower atmosphere, the increase in March can be related to changes in synoptic circulation patterns. As an explanation for the latter, a possible feedback between retreating Barents Sea sea ice, enhanced cyclonic activity and Fram Strait MCAOs is postulated. Exemplifying the trend toward stronger MCAOs during March, the study details the recordbreaking MCAO season in early 2020, and an observational case study of an extreme MCAO event in March 2020 is conducted. Thereby, radiosonde observations are combined with kinematic air back-trajectories to provide rare observational evidence for the diabatic cooling and drying during the MCAO preconditioning phase

GNSS transpolar earth reflectometry exploriNg system (G-TERN): mission concept

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) Transpolar Earth Reflectometry exploriNg system (G-TERN) was proposed in response to ESA's Earth Explorer 9 revised call by a team of 33 multi-disciplinary scientists. The primary objective of the mission is to quantify at high spatio-temporal resolution crucial characteristics, processes and interactions between sea ice, and other Earth system components in order to advance the understanding and prediction of climate change and its impacts on the environment and society. The objective is articulated through three key questions. 1) In a rapidly changing Arctic regime and under the resilient Antarctic sea ice trend, how will highly dynamic forcings and couplings between the various components of the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere modify or influence the processes governing the characteristics of the sea ice cover (ice production, growth, deformation, and melt)? 2) What are the impacts of extreme events and feedback mechanisms on sea ice evolution? 3) What are the effects of the cryosphere behaviors, either rapidly changing or resiliently stable, on the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude extreme events? To contribute answering these questions, G-TERN will measure key parameters of the sea ice, the oceans, and the atmosphere with frequent and dense coverage over polar areas, becoming a “dynamic mapper”of the ice conditions, the ice production, and the loss in multiple time and space scales, and surrounding environment. Over polar areas, the G-TERN will measure sea ice surface elevation (<;10 cm precision), roughness, and polarimetry aspects at 30-km resolution and 3-days full coverage. G-TERN will implement the interferometric GNSS reflectometry concept, from a single satellite in near-polar orbit with capability for 12 simultaneous observations. Unlike currently orbiting GNSS reflectometry missions, the G-TERN uses the full GNSS available bandwidth to improve its ranging measurements. The lifetime would be 2025-2030 or optimally 2025-2035, covering key stages of the transition toward a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. This paper describes the mission objectives, it reviews its measurement techniques, summarizes the suggested implementation, and finally, it estimates the expected performance.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming