Periodic behaviour of coronal mass ejections, eruptive events, and solar activity proxies during solar cycles 23 and 24

We report on the parallel analysis of the periodic behaviour of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on 21 years [1996 -- 2016] of observations with the SOHO/LASCO--C2 coronagraph, solar flares, prominences, and several proxies of solar activity. We consider values of the rates globally and whenever possible, distinguish solar hemispheres and solar cycles 23 and 24. Periodicities are investigated using both frequency (periodogram) and time-frequency (wavelet) analysis. We find that these different processes, in addition to following the $\approx$11-year Solar Cycle, exhibit diverse statistically significant oscillations with properties common to all solar, coronal, and heliospheric processes: variable periodicity, intermittence, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles, being more pronounced during solar cycle 23 than the weaker cycle 24. However, our analysis reveals an extremely complex and diverse situation. For instance, there exists very limited commonality for periods of less than one year. The few exceptions are the periods of 3.1--3.2 months found in the global occurrence rates of CMEs and in the sunspot area (SSA) and those of 5.9--6.1 months found in the northern hemisphere. Mid-range periods of $\approx$1 and $\approx$2 years are more wide spread among the studied processes, but exhibit a very distinct behaviour with the first one being present only in the northern hemisphere and the second one only in the southern hemisphere. These periodic behaviours likely results from the complexity of the underlying physical processes, prominently the emergence of magnetic flux.Comment: 33 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

On the dynamics of social conflicts: looking for the Black Swan

This paper deals with the modeling of social competition, possibly resulting in the onset of extreme conflicts. More precisely, we discuss models describing the interplay between individual competition for wealth distribution that, when coupled with political stances coming from support or opposition to a government, may give rise to strongly self-enhanced effects. The latter may be thought of as the early stages of massive, unpredictable events known as Black Swans, although no analysis of any fully-developed Black Swan is provided here. Our approach makes use of the framework of the kinetic theory for active particles, where nonlinear interactions among subjects are modeled according to game-theoretical tools.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Fourier Domain

The changes in brightness of an astronomical source as a function of time are key probes into that source's physics. Periodic and quasi-periodic signals are indicators of fundamental time (and length) scales in the system, while stochastic processes help uncover the nature of turbulent accretion processes. A key method of studying time variability is through Fourier methods, the decomposition of the signal into sine waves, which yields a representation of the data in frequency space. With the extension into \textit{spectral timing} the methods built on the Fourier transform can not only help us characterize (quasi-)periodicities and stochastic processes, but also uncover the complex relationships between time, photon energy and flux in order to help build better models of accretion processes and other high-energy dynamical physics. In this Chapter, we provide a broad, but practical overview of the most important relevant methods.Comment: 50 pages, 13 figures. This Chapter will appear in the Section "Timing Analysis" of the "Handbook of X-ray and Gamma-ray Astrophysics" (Editors in chief: C. Bambi and A. Santangelo

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

On the data hiding theory and multimedia content security applications

This dissertation is a comprehensive study of digital steganography for multimedia content protection. With the increasing development of Internet technology, protection and enforcement of multimedia property rights has become a great concern to multimedia authors and distributors. Watermarking technologies provide a possible solution for this problem. The dissertation first briefly introduces the current watermarking schemes, including their applications in video,, image and audio. Most available embedding schemes are based on direct Spread Sequence (SS) modulation. A small value pseudo random signature sequence is embedded into the host signal and the information is extracted via correlation. The correlation detection problem is discussed at the beginning. It is concluded that the correlator is not optimum in oblivious detection. The Maximum Likelihood detector is derived and some feasible suboptimal detectors are also analyzed. Through the calculation of extraction Bit Error Rate (BER), it is revealed that the SS scheme is not very efficient due to its poor host noise suppression. The watermark domain selection problem is addressed subsequently. Some implications on hiding capacity and reliability are also studied. The last topic in SS modulation scheme is the sequence selection. The relationship between sequence bandwidth and synchronization requirement is detailed in the work. It is demonstrated that the white sequence commonly used in watermarking may not really boost watermark security. To address the host noise suppression problem, the hidden communication is modeled as a general hypothesis testing problem and a set partitioning scheme is proposed. Simulation studies and mathematical analysis confirm that it outperforms the SS schemes in host noise suppression. The proposed scheme demonstrates improvement over the existing embedding schemes. Data hiding in audio signals are explored next. The audio data hiding is believed a more challenging task due to the human sensitivity to audio artifacts and advanced feature of current compression techniques. The human psychoacoustic model and human music understanding are also covered in the work. Then as a typical audio perceptual compression scheme, the popular MP3 compression is visited in some length. Several schemes, amplitude modulation, phase modulation and noise substitution are presented together with some experimental results. As a case study, a music bitstream encryption scheme is proposed. In all these applications, human psychoacoustic model plays a very important role. A more advanced audio analysis model is introduced to reveal implications on music understanding. In the last part, conclusions and future research are presented

Assessing Non-Linear Structures in Real Exchange Rates Using Recurrence Plot Strategies

Non-linearity; chaos; recurrence analysis