Controversy trend detection in social media

In this research, we focus on the early prediction of whether topics are likely to generate significant controversy (in the form of social media such as comments, blogs, etc.). Controversy trend detection is important to companies, governments, national security agencies, and marketing groups because it can be used to identify which issues the public is having problems with and develop strategies to remedy them. For example, companies can monitor their press release to find out how the public is reacting and to decide if any additional public relations action is required, social media moderators can moderate discussions if the discussions start becoming abusive and getting out of control, and governmental agencies can monitor their public policies and make adjustments to the policies to address any public concerns. An algorithm was developed to predict controversy trends by taking into account sentiment expressed in comments, burstiness of comments, and controversy score. To train and test the algorithm, an annotated corpus was developed consisting of 728 news articles and over 500,000 comments on these articles made by viewers from CNN.com. This study achieved an average F-score of 71.3% across all time spans in detection of controversial versus non-controversial topics. The results suggest that it is possible for early prediction of controversy trends leveraging social media

Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Leveraging Sociological Models for Predictive Analytics

Abstract—There is considerable interest in developing techniques for predicting human behavior, for instance to enable emerging contentious situations to be forecast or the nature of ongoing but “hidden ” activities to be inferred. A promising approach to this problem is to identify and collect appropriate empirical data and then apply machine learning methods to these data to generate the predictions. This paper shows the performance of such learning algorithms often can be improved substantially by leveraging sociological models in their development and implementation. In particular, we demonstrate that sociologically-grounded learning algorithms outperform gold-standard methods in three important and challenging tasks: 1.) inferring the (unobserved) nature of relationships in adversarial social networks, 2.) predicting whether nascent social diffusion events will “go viral”, and 3.) anticipating and defending future actions of opponents in adversarial settings. Significantly, the new algorithms perform well even when there is limited data available for their training and execution. Keywords—predictive analysis, sociological models, social networks, empirical analysis, machine learning. I

Information diffusion in online social networks

International audienceOnline social networks play a major role in the spread of information at very large scale and it becomes essential to provide means to analyze this phenomenon. Analyzing information diffusion proves to be a challenging task since the raw data produced by users of these networks are a flood of ideas, recommendations, opinions, etc. The aim of this PhD work is to help in the understanding of this phenomenon. So far, our contributions are the following: (i) a survey of developments in the field; (ii) T-BaSIC, a graph-based model for information diffusion prediction; (iii) SONDY, an open source platform that helps understanding social network users' interests and activity by providing emerging topics and events detection as well as network analysis functionalities

Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment

The past two decades have seen an upsurge of interest in the collective behaviors of complex systems composed of many agents entrained to each other and to external events. In this paper, we extend concepts of entrainment to the dynamics of human collective attention. We conducted a detailed investigation of the unfolding of human entrainment - as expressed by the content and patterns of hundreds of thousands of messages on Twitter - during the 2012 US presidential debates. By time locking these data sources, we quantify the impact of the unfolding debate on human attention. We show that collective social behavior covaries second-by-second to the interactional dynamics of the debates: A candidate speaking induces rapid increases in mentions of his name on social media and decreases in mentions of the other candidate. Moreover, interruptions by an interlocutor increase the attention received. We also highlight a distinct time scale for the impact of salient moments in the debate: Mentions in social media start within 5-10 seconds after the moment; peak at approximately one minute; and slowly decay in a consistent fashion across well-known events during the debates. Finally, we show that public attention after an initial burst slowly decays through the course of the debates. Thus we demonstrate that large-scale human entrainment may hold across a number of distinct scales, in an exquisitely time-locked fashion. The methods and results pave the way for careful study of the dynamics and mechanisms of large-scale human entrainment.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, 4 supplementary figures. 2nd version revised according to peer reviewers' comments: more detailed explanation of the methods, and grounding of the hypothese

Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications

Predictive analysis of social media data has attracted considerable attention from the research community as well as the business world because of the essential and actionable information it can provide. Over the years, extensive experimentation and analysis for insights have been carried out using Twitter data in various domains such as healthcare, public health, politics, social sciences, and demographics. In this chapter, we discuss techniques, approaches and state-of-the-art applications of predictive analysis of Twitter data. Specifically, we present fine-grained analysis involving aspects such as sentiment, emotion, and the use of domain knowledge in the coarse-grained analysis of Twitter data for making decisions and taking actions, and relate a few success stories

Leveraging Twitter data to understand the dynamics of social media interactions on cryptocurrencies

Rapid technological change in the last decades has led to the emergence of new platforms and fields such as cryptocurrencies and social media data. Cryptocurrencies are decentralized digital currencies that use blockchain technology to create a secure and decentralized environment. In the decade since the inception of social media, it has created revolutions and connected people with interests. Social media platforms such as Twitter allow users worldwide to share opinions, emotions, and news. Twitter is one of the most used social media platforms worldwide. The social media platform has millions of users where tweets are continuously shared every second. Therefore, tweets are useful when a large amount of data is generated to conduct a social media analysis. In addition, Twitter is broadly utilized by investors and financial analysts to gather valuable information. Several studies have shown that the content posted on Twitter can predict the movement of cryptocurrency prices. However, limited research has been conducted on the dynamics of Twitter interactions on cryptocurrencies among users. By leveraging 1724328 tweets, this research aims to understand the dynamics of social media users’ interactions on cryptocurrencies. Essentially by shedding light on larger cryptocurrencies contrary to smaller. The findings reveal that Twitter users are more positive than negative about cryptocurrencies. The analysis also shows an existing relationship between events and the interaction of users, where cryptocurrency-related events shift the emotion, sentiment, and discussion topics of the users. The thesis contributes to demonstrating the effectiveness of the Social set analysis framework to analyze and visualize a massive amount of social media data and user-generated data created on social media platforms such as Twitter