9,367 research outputs found
Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia
Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability,
and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on
accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease.
Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly
and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as
social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but
important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of
diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness.
We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs
from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a
proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we
tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data
feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our
proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to
the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that
transferring models from one location to another without re-training is
feasible.
Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed
to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting
system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive
than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein
and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for
clarit
Enhancing Twitter Data Analysis with Simple Semantic Filtering: Example in Tracking Influenza-Like Illnesses
Systems that exploit publicly available user generated content such as
Twitter messages have been successful in tracking seasonal influenza. We
developed a novel filtering method for Influenza-Like-Illnesses (ILI)-related
messages using 587 million messages from Twitter micro-blogs. We first filtered
messages based on syndrome keywords from the BioCaster Ontology, an extant
knowledge model of laymen's terms. We then filtered the messages according to
semantic features such as negation, hashtags, emoticons, humor and geography.
The data covered 36 weeks for the US 2009 influenza season from 30th August
2009 to 8th May 2010. Results showed that our system achieved the highest
Pearson correlation coefficient of 98.46% (p-value<2.2e-16), an improvement of
3.98% over the previous state-of-the-art method. The results indicate that
simple NLP-based enhancements to existing approaches to mine Twitter data can
increase the value of this inexpensive resource.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, IEEE HISB 2012 conference, Sept 27-28, 2012, La
Jolla, California, U
Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams
Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture
what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics.
Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems
such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video
concept detection systems.
Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their
various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we
present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social
media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending
topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate
that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to
Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams
strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key
contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of
forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge.
Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting
technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit
similar behavior.
We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics
that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the
actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean
average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201
Summary of the Very Large Hadron Collider Physics and Detector Workshop
One of the options for an accelerator beyond the LHC is a hadron collider
with higher energy. Work is going on to explore accelerator technologies that
would make such a machine feasible. This workshop concentrated on the physics
and detector issues associated with a hadron collider with an energy in the
center of mass of the order of 100 to 200 TeV
Search strategies of Wikipedia readers
The quest for information is one of the most common activity of human beings. Despite the the impressive progress of search engines, not to miss the needed piece of information could be still very tough, as well as to acquire specific competences and knowledge by shaping and following the proper learning paths. Indeed, the need to find sensible paths in information networks is one of the biggest challenges of our societies and, to effectively address it, it is important to investigate the strategies adopted by human users to cope with the cognitive bottleneck of finding their way in a growing sea of information. Here we focus on the case of Wikipedia and investigate a recently released dataset about usersâ click on the English Wikipedia, namely the English Wikipedia Clickstream. We perform a semantically charged analysis to uncover the general patterns followed by information seekers in the multi-dimensional space of Wikipedia topics/categories. We discover the existence of well defined strategies in which users tend to start from very general, i.e., semantically broad, pages and progressively narrow down the scope of their navigation, while keeping a growing semantic coherence. This is unlike strategies associated to tasks with predefined search goals, namely the case of the Wikispeedia game. In this case users first move from the âparticularâ to the âuniversalâ before focusing down again to the required target. The clear picture offered here represents a very important stepping stone towards a better design of information networks and recommendation strategies, as well as the construction of radically new learning paths
BlogForever: D2.5 Weblog Spam Filtering Report and Associated Methodology
This report is written as a first attempt to define the BlogForever spam detection strategy. It comprises a survey of weblog spam technology and approaches to their detection. While the report was written to help identify possible approaches to spam detection as a component within the BlogForver software, the discussion has been extended to include observations related to the historical, social and practical value of spam, and proposals of other ways of dealing with spam within the repository without necessarily removing them. It contains a general overview of spam types, ready-made anti-spam APIs available for weblogs, possible methods that have been suggested for preventing the introduction of spam into a blog, and research related to spam focusing on those that appear in the weblog context, concluding in a proposal for a spam detection workflow that might form the basis for the spam detection component of the BlogForever software
Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data
Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective
states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the
emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this
would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense
of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time
monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on
an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success
of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the
popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and
analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry
to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the
dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi
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