7,048 research outputs found
Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modelling
The establishment of high-throughput sequencing technologies and
subsequent large-scale genomic datasets has flourished across fields of
fundamental biological sciences. The introduction of genomic resources in
fisheries management has been proposed from multiple angles, ranging from
an accurate re-definition of geographical limitations of stocks and connectivity,
identification of fine-scale stock structure linked to locally adapted subpopulations, or even the integration with individual-based biophysical
models to explore life history strategies. While those clearly enhance our
perception of patterns at the light of a spatial scale, temporal depth and
consequently forecasting ability might be compromised as an analytical
trade-off. Here, we present a framework to reinforce our understanding of
stock dynamics by adding also a temporal point of view. We propose to
integrate genomic information on temporal projections of species
distributions computed by Species Distribution Models (SDMs). SDMs have
the potential to project the current and future distribution ranges of a given
species from relevant environmental predictors. These projections serve as
tools to inform about range expansions and contractions of fish stocks and
suggest either suitable locations or local extirpations that may arise in the
future. However, SDMs assume that the whole population respond
homogenously to the range of environmental conditions. Here, we
conceptualize a framework that leverages a conventional Bayesian joint-SDM
approach with the incorporation of genomic data. We propose that introducing
genomic information at the basis of a joint-SDM will explore the range of
suitable habitats where stocks could thrive in the future as a function of their
current evolutionary potential.Fundação para a CiĂȘncia e Tecnollogia - FCT; ARNETinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Annual SHOT Report 2018
SHOT is affiliated to the Royal College of PathologistsAll NHS organisations must move away from a blame culture towards a just and learning culture. All clinical and laboratory staff should be encouraged to become familiar with human factors and ergonomics concepts. All transfusion decisions must be made after carefully assessing the risks and benefits of transfusion therapy. Collaboration and co-ordination among staff is vital
Norsk rÄ kumelk, en kilde til zoonotiske patogener?
The worldwide emerging trend of eating ânaturalâ foods, that has not been
processed, also applies for beverages. According to Norwegian legislation, all
milk must be pasteurized before commercial sale but drinking milk that has
not been heat-treated, is gaining increasing popularity. Scientist are warning
against this trend and highlights the risk of contracting disease from milkborne
microorganisms. To examine potential risks associated with drinking
unpasteurized milk in Norway, milk- and environmental samples were
collected from dairy farms located in south-east of Norway. The samples
were analyzed for the presence of specific zoonotic pathogens; Listeria
monocytogenes, Campylobacter spp., and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia
coli (STEC). Cattle are known to be healthy carriers of these pathogens, and
Campylobacter spp. and STEC have a low infectious dose, meaning that
infection can be established by ingesting a low number of bacterial cells. L.
monocytogenes causes one of the most severe foodborne zoonotic diseases,
listeriosis, that has a high fatality rate. All three pathogens have caused milk
borne disease outbreaks all over the world, also in Norway.
During this work, we observed that the prevalence of the three examined
bacteria were high in the environment at the examined farms. In addition, 7%
of the milk filters were contaminated by STEC, 13% by L. monocytogenes and
4% by Campylobacter spp. Four of the STEC isolates detected were eaepositive,
which is associated with the capability to cause severe human
disease. One of the eae-positive STEC isolates were collected from a milk
filter, which strongly indicate that Norwegian raw milk may contain potential
pathogenic STEC.
To further assess the possibilities of getting ill by STEC after consuming raw
milk, we examined the growth of the four eae-positive STEC isolates in raw milk at different temperatures. All four isolates seemed to have ability to multiply in raw milk at 8°C, and one isolate had significant growth after 72 hours. Incubation at 6°C seemed to reduce the number of bacteria during the
first 24 hours before cell death stopped. These findings highlight the
importance of stable refrigerator temperatures, preferable < 4°C, for storage
of raw milk.
The L. monocytogenes isolates collected during this study show genetic
similarities to isolates collected from urban and rural environmental
locations, but different clones were predominant in agricultural
environments compared to clinical and food environments. However, the
results indicate that the same clone can persist in a farm over time, and that
milk can be contaminated by L. monocytogenes clones present in farm
environment.
Despite testing small volumes (25 mL) of milk, we were able to isolate both
STEC and Campylobacter spp. directly from raw milk. A proportion of 3% of
the bulk tank milk and teat milk samples were contaminated by
Campylobacter spp. and one STEC was isolated from bulk tank milk. L
monocytogenes was not detected in bulk tank milk, nor in teat milk samples.
The agricultural evolvement during the past decades have led to larger
production units and new food safety challenges. Dairy cattle production in
Norway is in a current transition from tie-stall housing with conventional
pipeline milking systems, to modern loose housing systems with robotic
milking. The occurrence of the three pathogens in this project were higher in
samples collected from farms with loose housing compared to those with tiestall
housing.
Pasteurization of cowâs milk is a risk reducing procedure to protect
consumers from microbial pathogens and in most EU countries, commercial
distribution of unpasteurized milk is legally restricted. Together, the results
presented in this thesis show that the animal housing may influence the level
of pathogenic bacteria in the raw milk and that ingestion of Norwegian raw
cowâs milk may expose consumers to pathogenic bacteria which can cause
severe disease, especially in children, elderly and in persons with underlying
diseases. The results also highlight the importance of storing raw milk at low
temperatures between milking and consumption.Ă
spise mat som er mindre prosessert og mer «naturlig» er en pÄgÄende
trend i Norge og i andre deler av verden. Interessen for Ă„ drikke melk som
ikke er varmebehandlet, sÄkalt rÄ melk, er ogsÄ Þkende. I Norge er det pÄbudt
Ă„ pasteurisere melk fĂžr kommersielt salg for Ă„ beskytte forbrukeren mot
sykdomsfremkallende mikroorganismer. Fagfolk advarer mot Ä drikke rÄ
melk, og pÄpeker risikoen for Ä bli syk av patogene bakterier som kan finnes i
melken.
I denne avhandlingen undersĂžker vi den potensielle risikoen det medfĂžrer Ă„
drikke upasteurisert melk fra Norge. I tillegg til Ă„ samle inn tankmelk- og
speneprÞver fra melkegÄrder i sÞrÞst Norge, samlet vi ogsÄ miljÞprÞver fra
de samme gÄrdene for Ä kartlegge forekomst og for Ä identifisere potensielle
mattrygghetsrisikoer i melkeproduksjonen. Alle prĂžvene ble analysert for de
zoonotiske sykdomsfremkallende bakteriene Listeria monocytogenes,
Campylobacter spp., og Shiga toksin-produserende Escherichia coli (STEC).
Kyr kan vĂŠre friske smittebĂŠrere av disse bakteriene, som dermed kan
etablere et reservoar pÄ gÄrdene. Bakteriene kan overfÞres fra gÄrdsmiljÞet
til melkekjeden og dermed utfordre mattryggheten. Disse bakteriene har
forÄrsaket melkebÄrne sykdomsutbrudd over hele verden, ogsÄ i Norge.
Campylobacter spp. og STEC har lav infeksiĂžs dose, som vil si at man kan bli
syk selv om man bare inntar et lavt antall bakterieceller. L. monocytogenes
kan gi sykdommen listeriose, en av de mest alvorlige matbÄrne zoonotiske
sykdommene vi har i den vestlige verden.
Resultater fra denne oppgaven viser en hĂžy forekomst av de tre patogenene i
gÄrdsmiljÞet. I tillegg var 7% av melkefiltrene vi testet positive for STEC, 13%
positive for L. monocytogenes og 4% positive for Campylobacter spp.. Fire av
STEC isolatene bar genet for Intimin, eae, som er ansett som en viktig
virulensfaktor som Ăžker sjansen for alvorlig sykdom. Ett av de eae-positive
isolatene ble funnet i et melkefilter, noe som indikerer at norsk rÄ melk kan
inneholde patogene STEC. For Ă„ videre vurdere risikoen for Ă„ bli syk av STEC
fra rÄ melk undersÞkte vi hvordan de fire eae-positive isolatene vokste i rÄ
melk lagret ved forskjellige temperaturer. For alle isolatene Ăžkte antall
bakterier etter lagring ved 8°C, og for et isolat var veksten signifikant. Etter
lagring ved 6°C ble antallet bakterier redusert de fÞrste 24 timene, deretter
stoppet reduksjonen i antall bakterier. Disse resultatene viser hvor viktig det
er Ä ha stabil lav lagringstemperatur for rÄ melk, helst < 4°C.
L. monocytogenes isolatene som ble samlet inn fra melkegÄrdene viste
genetiske likheter med isolater samlet inn fra urbane og rurale miljĂžer rundt
omkring i Norge. Derimot var kloner som dominerte i landbruksmiljĂžet
forskjellige fra kliniske isolater og isolater fra matproduksjonslokaler. Videre
sÄ man at en klone kan persistere pÄ en gÄrd over tid og at melk kan
kontamineres av L. monocytogenes kloner som er til stede i gÄrdsmiljÞet.
Til tross for smÄ testvolum av tankmelken (25 mL) fant vi bÄde STEC og
Campylobacter spp. i melkeprĂžvene. 3% av tankmelkprĂžvene og
speneprĂžvene var positive for Campylobacter spp. og ett STEC isolat ble
funnet i tankmelk. L. monocytogenes ble ikke funnet direkte i melkeprĂžvene.
Landbruket i Norge er i stadig utvikling der besetningene blir stĂžrre, men
fĂŠrre. Melkebesetningene er midt i en overgang der tradisjonell oppstalling
med melking pÄ bÄs byttes ut med lÞsdriftssystemer og melkeroboter.
Forekomsten av de tre patogenene funnet i denne studien var hĂžyere i
besetningene med lĂžsdrift sammenliknet med besetningene som hadde
melkekyrne oppstallet pÄ bÄs.
Pasteurisering er et viktig forebyggende tiltak for Ă„ beskytte konsumenter fra
mikrobielle patogener, og i de fleste EU-land er kommersielt salg av rÄ melk
juridisk begrenset. Denne studien viser at oppstallingstype kan pÄvirke
nivÄene av patogene bakterier i gÄrdsmiljÞet og i rÄ melk. Inntak av rÄ melk
kan eksponere forbruker for patogene bakterier som kan gi alvorlig sykdom,
spesielt hos barn, eldre og personer med underliggende sykdommer.
Resultatene underbygger viktigheten av Ă„ pasteurisere melk for Ă„ sikre
mattryggheten, og at det er avgjÞrende Ä lagre rÄ melk ved kontinuerlig lave
temperaturer for Ă„ forebygge vekst av zoonotiske patogener
AnuĂĄrio cientĂfico da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da SaĂșde de Lisboa - 2021
Ă com grande prazer que apresentamos a mais recente edição (a 11.ÂȘ) do AnuĂĄrio CientĂfico da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da SaĂșde de Lisboa. Como instituição de ensino superior, temos o compromisso de promover e incentivar a pesquisa cientĂfica em todas as ĂĄreas do conhecimento que contemplam a nossa missĂŁo. Esta publicação tem como objetivo divulgar toda a produção cientĂfica desenvolvida pelos Professores, Investigadores, Estudantes e Pessoal nĂŁo Docente da ESTeSL durante 2021. Este AnuĂĄrio Ă©, assim, o reflexo do trabalho ĂĄrduo e dedicado da nossa comunidade, que se empenhou na produção de conteĂșdo cientĂfico de elevada qualidade e partilhada com a Sociedade na forma de livros, capĂtulos de livros, artigos publicados em revistas nacionais e internacionais, resumos de comunicaçÔes orais e pĂłsteres, bem como resultado dos trabalhos de 1Âș e 2Âș ciclo. Com isto, o conteĂșdo desta publicação abrange uma ampla variedade de tĂłpicos, desde temas mais fundamentais atĂ© estudos de aplicação prĂĄtica em contextos especĂficos de SaĂșde, refletindo desta forma a pluralidade e diversidade de ĂĄreas que definem, e tornam Ășnica, a ESTeSL. Acreditamos que a investigação e pesquisa cientĂfica Ă© um eixo fundamental para o desenvolvimento da sociedade e Ă© por isso que incentivamos os nossos estudantes a envolverem-se em atividades de pesquisa e prĂĄtica baseada na evidĂȘncia desde o inĂcio dos seus estudos na ESTeSL. Esta publicação Ă© um exemplo do sucesso desses esforços, sendo a maior de sempre, o que faz com que estejamos muito orgulhosos em partilhar os resultados e descobertas dos nossos investigadores com a comunidade cientĂfica e o pĂșblico em geral. Esperamos que este AnuĂĄrio inspire e motive outros estudantes, profissionais de saĂșde, professores e outros colaboradores a continuarem a explorar novas ideias e contribuir para o avanço da ciĂȘncia e da tecnologia no corpo de conhecimento prĂłprio das ĂĄreas que compĂ”e a ESTeSL. Agradecemos a todos os envolvidos na produção deste anuĂĄrio e desejamos uma leitura inspiradora e agradĂĄvel.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Long-term zooplankton dynamics in Lake TaupĆ: 2000-2020
Long-term monitoring is essential for distinguishing between natural and anthropogenically induced changes within ecosystems, particularly those with high degrees of natural fluctuation. In order to gain further understanding of the links between physical, chemical and biotic factors, zooplankton have been highlighted as useful bioindicators within aquatic ecosystems. Long-term zooplankton monitoring studies have been utilized to highlight changes in lake trophic state, changes within catchments, fisheries practices and invasions.
Lake TaupĆ, New Zealandâs largest lake, has been subject to a long-term monitoring programme by NIWA since 1994, commissioned by the Waikato Regional Council, with the primary purpose of detecting changes in the lakeâs trophic state through time. Since January 2000, the monitoring programme has included biweekly zooplankton sampling; no results of this have yet been published. The purpose of my research was to assess if there have been any significant changes in the zooplankton community composition over the monitoring period (2000-2020), with a particular focus on the last 12 years of data (2009-2020), and determine the importance of measured environmental variables in influencing changes in the zooplankton community composition.
Lake TaupĆ was assessed as microtrophic to oligotrophic throughout the monitoring period (Trophic Level Index (TLI) between 1.5 and 2.9), and there were no significant linear changes in any of the measured environmental variables (R-squared values all 0.05). The zooplankton data was separated into two separate datasets; a shorter February 2009 â December 2020 dataset with samples analysed entirely by myself, and a longer January 2000-December 2020 dataset, with earlier samples analysed by NIWA, utilising a lower taxonomic resolution.
Multivariate analyses (nMDS and ANOSIM) indicated significant differences among three yearly groups of zooplankton data within both the shorter (Global R statistic = 0.179, p = 0.014) and longer dataset (Global R statistic = 0.353, p = 0.001). Time and temperature were inferred by Redundancy Analysis (RDA) as the most important environmental variables associated with change in zooplankton community composition in both the shorter 2009-2020 (Lambda-A = 0.08 for both, p = 0.002 for both) and longer 2000-2020 datasets (Lambda-A = 0.15, p = 0.002 for time, and Lambda-A = 0.06, p = 0.002 for temperature). Both ordinations indicated that changes associated with time (long-term) and changes in temperature were primarily unrelated. Changes in zooplankton community composition influenced by temperature were attributed to seasonal succession.
Zooplankton community composition differed between the beginning and end of the monitoring periods in both datasets. However, the direction of the community change seemingly reversed around 2009-2011, with assemblages late in the study reverting to communities similar to those observed earlier in the study. Decreases in the native large Daphnia thomsoni and increased importance of the non-native Daphnia galeata indicate that colonisation by the invading species has influenced the observed changes in zooplankton community composition. The influences of top-down control in the form of predation on the zooplankton community by fish (an unmeasured variable) may have also influenced communities, with shifts from large- to small-sized species observed. Rotifers indicative of both low and high TLI are present throughout the study (e.g., Polyarthra dolichoptera and Keratella cochlearis respectively), but the community is dominated throughout by species indicative of low trophic state (e.g., Conochiloides dossuarius), which is consistent with previous zooplankton studies within Lake TaupĆ. Continued monitoring of zooplankton, physical and chemical lake properties, algae, and bacteria is advised, with the inclusion of fish monitoring recommended
Mathematical models to evaluate the impact of increasing serotype coverage in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines
Of over 100 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae, only 7 were included in the first pneumo- coccal conjugate vaccine (PCV). While PCV reduced the disease incidence, in part because of a herd immunity effect, a replacement effect was observed whereby disease was increasingly caused by serotypes not included in the vaccine. Dynamic transmission models can account for these effects to describe post-vaccination scenarios, whereas economic evaluations can enable decision-makers to compare vaccines of increasing valency for implementation. This thesis has four aims. First, to explore the limitations and assumptions of published pneu- mococcal models and the implications for future vaccine formulation and policy. Second, to conduct a trend analysis assembling all the available evidence for serotype replacement in Europe, North America and Australia to characterise invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by vaccine-type (VT) and non-vaccine-types (NVT) serotypes. The motivation behind this is to assess the patterns of relative abundance in IPD cases pre- and post-vaccination, to examine country-level differences in relation to the vaccines employed over time since introduction, and to assess the growth of the replacement serotypes in comparison with the serotypes targeted by the vaccine. The third aim is to use a Bayesian framework to estimate serotype-specific invasiveness, i.e. the rate of invasive disease given carriage. This is useful for dynamic transmission modelling, as transmission is through carriage but a majority of serotype-specific pneumococcal data lies in active disease surveillance. This is also helpful to address whether serotype replacement reflects serotypes that are more invasive or whether serotypes in a specific location are equally more invasive than in other locations. Finally, the last aim of this thesis is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of increas- ing serotype coverage in PCVs using a dynamic transmission model. Together, the results highlight that though there are key parameter uncertainties that merit further exploration, divergence in serotype replacement and inconsistencies in invasiveness on a country-level may make a universal PCV suboptimal.Open Acces
Addressing infrastructure challenges posed by the Harwich Formation through understanding its geological origins
Variable deposits known to make up the sequence of the Harwich Formation in London have been the subject of ongoing uncertainty within the engineering industry. Current stratigraphical subdivisions do not account for the systematic recognition of individual members in unexposed ground where recovered material is usually disturbed - fines are flushed out during the drilling process and loose materials are often lost or mixed with the surrounding layers.
Most engineering problems associated with the Harwich Formation deposits are down to their unconsolidated nature and irregular cementation within layers. The consequent engineering hazards are commonly reflected in high permeability, raised groundwater pressures, ground settlements - when found near the surface and poor stability - when exposed during excavations or tunnelling operations. This frequently leads to sudden design changes or requires contingency measures during construction. All of these can result in damaged equipment, slow progress, and unforeseen costs.
This research proposes a facies-based approach where the lithological facies assigned were identified based on reinterpretation of available borehole data from various ground investigations in London, supported by visual inspection of deposits in-situ and a selection of laboratory testing including Particle Size Distribution, Optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy and X-ray Diffraction analyses.
Two ground models were developed as a result: 1st a 3D geological model (MOVE model) of the stratigraphy found within the study area that explores the influence of local structural processes controlling/affecting these sediments pre-, syn- and post- deposition and 2nd a sequence stratigraphic model (Dionisos Flow model) unveiling stratal geometries of facies at various stages of accretion. The models present a series of sediment distribution maps, localised 3D views and cross-sections that aim to provide a novel approach to assist the geotechnical industry in predicting the likely distribution of the Harwich Formation deposits, decreasing the engineering risks associated with this stratum.Open Acces
Omics measures of ageing and disease susceptibility
While genomics has been a major field of study for decades due to relatively inexpensive genotyping arrays, the recent advancement of technology has also allowed the measure and study of various âomicsâ. There are now numerous methods and platforms available that allow high throughput and high dimensional quantification of many types of biological molecules. Traditional genomics and transcriptomics are now joined by proteomics, metabolomics, glycomics, lipidomics and epigenomics.
I was lucky to have access to a unique resource in the Orkney Complex Disease Study (ORCADES), a cohort of individuals from the Orkney Islands that are extremely deeply annotated. Approximately 1000 individuals in ORCADES have genomics, proteomics, lipidomics, glycomics, metabolomics, epigenomics, clinical risk factors and disease phenotypes, as well as body composition measurements from whole body scans. In addition to these cross-sectional omics and health related measures, these individuals also have linked electronic health records (EHR) available, allowing the assessment of the effect of these omics measures on incident disease over a ~10-year follow up period. In this thesis I use this phenotype rich resource to investigate the relationship between multiple types of omics measures and both ageing and health outcomes.
First, I used the ORCADES data to construct measures of biological age (BA). The idea that there is an underlying rate at which the body deteriorates with age that varies between individuals of the same chronological age, this biological age, would be more indicative of health status, functional capacity and risk of age-related diseases than chronological age. Previous models estimating BA (ageing clocks) have predominantly been built using a single type of omics assay and comparison between different omics ageing clocks has been limited. I performed the most exhaustive comparison of different omics ageing clocks yet, with eleven clocks spanning nine different omics assays. I show that different omics clocks overlap in the information they provide about age, that some omics clocks track more generalised ageing while others track specific disease risk factors and that omics ageing clocks are prognostic of incident disease over and above chronological age.
Second, I assessed whether individually or in multivariable models, omics measures are associated with health-related risk factors or prognostic of incident disease over 10 years post-assessment. I show that 2,686 single omics biomarkers are associated with 10 risk factors and 44 subsequent incident diseases. I also show that models built using multiple biomarkers from whole body scans, metabolomics, proteomics and clinical risk factors are prognostic of subsequent diabetes mellitus and that clinical risk factors are prognostic of incident hypertensive disorders, obesity, ischaemic heart disease and Framingham risk score.
Third, I investigated the genetic architecture of a subset of the proteomics measures available in ORCADES, specifically 184 cardiovascular-related proteins. Combining genome-wide association (GWAS) summary statistics from ORCADES and 17 other cohorts from the SCALLOP Consortium, giving a maximum sample size of 26,494 individuals, I performed 184 genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) on the levels of these proteins circulating in plasma. I discovered 592 independent significant loci associated with the levels of at least one protein. I found that between 8-37% of these significant loci colocalise with known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL). I also find evidence of causal associations between 11 plasma protein levels and disease susceptibility using Mendelian randomisation, highlighting potential candidate drug targets
Socio-endocrinology revisited: New tools to tackle old questions
Animalsâ social environments impact their health and survival, but the proximate links between sociality and fitness are still not fully understood. In this thesis, I develop and apply new approaches to address an outstanding question within this sociality-fitness link: does grooming (a widely studied, positive social interaction) directly affect glucocorticoid concentrations (GCs; a group of steroid hormones indicating physiological stress) in a wild primate? To date, negative, long-term correlations between grooming and GCs have been found, but the logistical difficulties of studying proximate mechanisms in the wild leave knowledge gaps regarding the short-term, causal mechanisms that underpin this relationship. New technologies, such as collar-mounted tri-axial accelerometers, can provide the continuous behavioural data required to match grooming to non-invasive GC measures (Chapter 1). Using Chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) living on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa as a model system, I identify giving and receiving grooming using tri-axial accelerometers and supervised machine learning methods, with high overall accuracy (~80%) (Chapter 2). I then test what socio-ecological variables predict variation in faecal and urinary GCs (fGCs and uGCs) (Chapter 3). Shorter and rainy days are associated with higher fGCs and uGCs, respectively, suggesting that environmental conditions may impose stressors in the form of temporal bottlenecks. Indeed, I find that short days and days with more rain-hours are associated with reduced giving grooming (Chapter 4), and that this reduction is characterised by fewer and shorter grooming bouts. Finally, I test whether grooming predicts GCs, and find that while there is a long-term negative correlation between grooming and GCs, grooming in the short-term, in particular giving grooming, is associated with higher fGCs and uGCs (Chapter 5). I end with a discussion on how the new tools I applied have enabled me to advance our understanding of sociality and stress in primate social systems (Chapter 6)
Contemporary, decadal, and millennial-scale permafrost- and vegetation dynamics and carbon release in an alpine region of Jotunheimen, Norway
Climatic warming in northern alpine regions facilitates the thawing of permafrost, the associated release of soil carbon into the atmosphere, and the altitudinal shifts in vegetation patterns. Here, a multi-disciplinary approach is adopted to investigate the response of an alpine permafrost landscape (Jotunheimen, Norway, with focus on GaldhĂžpiggen) to climatic changes over long- to medium timescales. First, a gas analyser is used to explore how ecosystem respiration is affected by ecosystem (soil and vegetation) and geomorphological (cryogenic disturbance) factors during the peak growing season. A palaeoecological record is then analysed to infer the past dynamics of the alpine tree lines and the lower limit of permafrost on GaldhĂžpiggen over the millennial- and centennial scales. Finally, remotely sensed satellite imagery is combined with observed air temperatures to create a model that provides an estimation of land surface temperatures over the past six decades. The model is then used to predict surface âgreennessâ over the same period. Palynological evidence from GaldhĂžpiggen indicates that the altitudinal limits of alpine tree lines have shifted by hundreds of metres in response to climatic changes over the millennial scale. Since 1957, the model predictions indicate substantial increases in land surface temperatures and growing season surface âgreennessâ (i.e., vegetation abundance) in Jotunheimen, but the change has not been spatially uniform. The highest increases were recorded over the low- and mid-alpine heaths above the tree line (1050-1500 m a.s.l.), which was attributed to increased shrub cover. This trend could facilitate carbon release from the ground, as peak growing season ecosystem respiration was found to be most strongly controlled by soil microclimate and plant growth forms. The likely future scenario in response to warming in Jotunheimen will be continued permafrost degradation, with higher altitudes (â„1500 m a.s.l.) experiencing decreased cryoturbation, increased shrub encroachment and higher surface CO2 emissions
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