Tiresias: Predicting Security Events Through Deep Learning

With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g., whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4 billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the task

Experiments on Adaptive Techniques for Host-Based Intrusion Detection

This research explores four experiments of adaptive host-based intrusion detection (ID) techniques in an attempt to develop systems that can detect novel exploits. The technique considered to have the most potential is adaptive critic designs (ACDs) because of their utilization of reinforcement learning, which allows learning exploits that are difficult to pinpoint in sensor data. Preliminary results of ID using an ACD, an Elman recurrent neural network, and a statistical anomaly detection technique demonstrate an ability to learn to distinguish between clean and exploit data. We used the Solaris Basic Security Module (BSM) as a data source and performed considerable preprocessing on the raw data. A detection approach called generalized signature-based ID is recommended as a middle ground between signature-based ID, which has an inability to detect novel exploits, and anomaly detection, which detects too many events including events that are not exploits. The primary results of the ID experiments demonstrate the use of custom data for generalized signature-based intrusion detection and the ability of neural network-based systems to learn in this application environment