Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Non-Compositional Term Dependence for Information Retrieval

Modelling term dependence in IR aims to identify co-occurring terms that are too heavily dependent on each other to be treated as a bag of words, and to adapt the indexing and ranking accordingly. Dependent terms are predominantly identified using lexical frequency statistics, assuming that (a) if terms co-occur often enough in some corpus, they are semantically dependent; (b) the more often they co-occur, the more semantically dependent they are. This assumption is not always correct: the frequency of co-occurring terms can be separate from the strength of their semantic dependence. E.g. "red tape" might be overall less frequent than "tape measure" in some corpus, but this does not mean that "red"+"tape" are less dependent than "tape"+"measure". This is especially the case for non-compositional phrases, i.e. phrases whose meaning cannot be composed from the individual meanings of their terms (such as the phrase "red tape" meaning bureaucracy). Motivated by this lack of distinction between the frequency and strength of term dependence in IR, we present a principled approach for handling term dependence in queries, using both lexical frequency and semantic evidence. We focus on non-compositional phrases, extending a recent unsupervised model for their detection [21] to IR. Our approach, integrated into ranking using Markov Random Fields [31], yields effectiveness gains over competitive TREC baselines, showing that there is still room for improvement in the very well-studied area of term dependence in IR

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

A Scalable Machine Learning Online Service for Big Data Real-Time Analysis

Proceedings of: IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI 2014). Orlando, FL, USA, December 09-12, 2014.This work describes a proposal for developing and testing a scalable machine learning architecture able to provide real-time predictions or analytics as a service over domain-independent big data, working on top of the Hadoop ecosystem and providing real-time analytics as a service through a RESTful API. Systems implementing this architecture could provide companies with on-demand tools facilitating the tasks of storing, analyzing, understanding and reacting to their data, either in batch or stream fashion; and could turn into a valuable asset for improving the business performance and be a key market differentiator in this fast pace environment. In order to validate the proposed architecture, two systems are developed, each one providing classical machine-learning services in different domains: the first one involves a recommender system for web advertising, while the second consists in a prediction system which learns from gamers' behavior and tries to predict future events such as purchases or churning. An evaluation is carried out on these systems, and results show how both services are able to provide fast responses even when a number of concurrent requests are made, and in the particular case of the second system, results clearly prove that computed predictions significantly outperform those obtained if random guess was used.This research work is part of Memento Data Analysis project, co-funded by the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism with identifier TSI-020601-2012-99.Publicad