Impact of Systematic Errors in Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Surveys of Galaxy Clusters

Future high-resolution microwave background measurements hold the promise of detecting galaxy clusters throughout our Hubble volume through their Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) signature, down to a given limiting flux. The number density of galaxy clusters is highly sensitive to cluster mass through fluctuations in the matter power spectrum, as well as redshift through the comoving volume and the growth factor. This sensitivity in principle allows tight constraints on such quantities as the equation of state of dark energy and the neutrino mass. We evaluate the ability of future cluster surveys to measure these quantities simultaneously when combined with PLANCK-like CMB data. Using a simple effective model for uncertainties in the cluster mass-SZ flux relation, we evaluate systematic shifts in cosmological constraints from cluster SZ surveys. We find that a systematic bias of 10% in cluster mass measurements can give rise to shifts in cosmological parameter estimates at levels larger than the $1\sigma$ statistical errors. Systematic errors are unlikely to be detected from the mass and redshift dependence of cluster number counts alone; increasing survey size has only a marginal effect. Implications for upcoming experiments are discussed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures; accepted to JCAP; revised to match submitted versio

Detecting the Rise and Fall of 21 cm Fluctuations with the Murchison Widefield Array

We forecast the sensitivity with which the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) can measure the 21 cm power spectrum of cosmic hydrogen, using radiative transfer simulations to model reionization and the 21 cm signal. The MWA is sensitive to roughly a decade in scale (wavenumbers of k ~ 0.1 - 1 h Mpc^{-1}), with foreground contamination precluding measurements on larger scales, and thermal detector noise limiting the small scale sensitivity. This amounts primarily to constraints on two numbers: the amplitude and slope of the 21 cm power spectrum on the scales probed. We find, however, that the redshift evolution in these quantities can yield important information about reionization. Although the power spectrum differs substantially across plausible models, a generic prediction is that the amplitude of the 21 cm power spectrum on MWA scales peaks near the epoch when the intergalactic medium (IGM) is ~ 50% ionized. Moreover, the slope of the 21 cm power spectrum on MWA scales flattens as the ionization fraction increases and the sizes of the HII regions grow. Considering detection sensitivity, we show that the optimal MWA antenna configuration for power spectrum measurements would pack all 500 antenna tiles as close as possible in a compact core. The MWA is sensitive enough in its optimal configuration to measure redshift evolution in the slope and amplitude of the 21 cm power spectrum. Detecting the characteristic redshift evolution of our models will confirm that observed 21 cm fluctuations originate from the IGM, and not from foregrounds, and provide an indirect constraint on the volume-filling factor of HII regions during reionization. After two years of observations under favorable conditions, the MWA can constrain the filling factor at an epoch when ~ 0.5 to within roughly +/- 0.1 at 2-sigma.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Ap

Matched direction detectors and estimators for array processing with subspace steering vector uncertainties

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating and detecting a signal whose associated spatial signature is known to lie in a given linear subspace but whose coordinates in this subspace are otherwise unknown, in the presence of subspace interference and broad-band noise. This situation arises when, on one hand, there exist uncertainties about the steering vector but, on the other hand, some knowledge about the steering vector errors is available. First, we derive the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) for the problem and compute the corresponding Cramer-Rao bound. Next, the maximum-likelihood estimates are used to derive a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). The GLRT is compared and contrasted with the standard matched subspace detectors. The performances of the estimators and detectors are illustrated by means of numerical simulations

Gravitationally lensed quasars and supernovae in future wide-field optical imaging surveys

Cadenced optical imaging surveys in the next decade will be capable of detecting time-varying galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in large numbers, increasing the size of the statistically well-defined samples of multiply-imaged quasars by two orders of magnitude, and discovering the first strongly-lensed supernovae. We carry out a detailed calculation of the likely yields of several planned surveys, using realistic distributions for the lens and source properties and taking magnification bias and image configuration detectability into account. We find that upcoming wide-field synoptic surveys should detect several thousand lensed quasars. In particular, the LSST should find 8000 lensed quasars, 3000 of which will have well-measured time delays, and also ~130 lensed supernovae, which is compared with ~15 lensed supernovae predicted to be found by the JDEM. We predict the quad fraction to be ~15% for the lensed quasars and ~30% for the lensed supernovae. Generating a mock catalogue of around 1500 well-observed double-image lenses, we compute the available precision on the Hubble constant and the dark energy equation parameters for the time delay distance experiment (assuming priors from Planck): the predicted marginalised 68% confidence intervals are \sigma(w_0)=0.15, \sigma(w_a)=0.41, and \sigma(h)=0.017. While this is encouraging in the sense that these uncertainties are only 50% larger than those predicted for a space-based type-Ia supernova sample, we show how the dark energy figure of merit degrades with decreasing knowledge of the the lens mass distribution. (Abridged)Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS; mock LSST lens catalogue may be available at http://kipac-prod.stanford.edu/collab/research/lensing/mocklen

An Upper Bound for Random Measurement Error in Causal Discovery

Causal discovery algorithms infer causal relations from data based on several assumptions, including notably the absence of measurement error. However, this assumption is most likely violated in practical applications, which may result in erroneous, irreproducible results. In this work we show how to obtain an upper bound for the variance of random measurement error from the covariance matrix of measured variables and how to use this upper bound as a correction for constraint-based causal discovery. We demonstrate a practical application of our approach on both simulated data and real-world protein signaling data.Comment: Published in Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-18

Observationally Determining the Properties of Dark Matter

Determining the properties of the dark components of the universe remains one of the outstanding challenges in cosmology. We explore how upcoming CMB anisotropy measurements, galaxy power spectrum data, and supernova (SN) distance measurements can observationally constrain their gravitational properties with minimal assumptions on the theoretical side. SN observations currently suggest the existence of dark matter with an exotic equation of state p/rho < -1/3 that accelerates the expansion of the universe. When combined with CMB anisotropy measurements, SN or galaxy survey data can in principle determine the equation of state and density of this component separately, regardless of their value, as long as the universe is spatially flat. Combining these pairs creates a sharp consistency check. If p/rho > -1/2, then the clustering behavior (sound speed) of the dark component can be determined so as to test the scalar-field ``quintessence'' hypothesis. If the exotic matter turns out instead to be simply a cosmological constant (p/rho = -1), the combination of CMB and galaxy survey data should provide a significant detection of the remaining dark matter, the neutrino background radiation (NBR). The gross effect of its density or temperature on the expansion rate is ill-constrained as it is can be mimicked by a change in the matter density. However, anisotropies of the NBR break this degeneracy and should be detectable by upcoming experiments.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, RevTeX, submitted to PR