Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Archiving the Relaxed Consistency Web

The historical, cultural, and intellectual importance of archiving the web has been widely recognized. Today, all countries with high Internet penetration rate have established high-profile archiving initiatives to crawl and archive the fast-disappearing web content for long-term use. As web technologies evolve, established web archiving techniques face challenges. This paper focuses on the potential impact of the relaxed consistency web design on crawler driven web archiving. Relaxed consistent websites may disseminate, albeit ephemerally, inaccurate and even contradictory information. If captured and preserved in the web archives as historical records, such information will degrade the overall archival quality. To assess the extent of such quality degradation, we build a simplified feed-following application and simulate its operation with synthetic workloads. The results indicate that a non-trivial portion of a relaxed consistency web archive may contain observable inconsistency, and the inconsistency window may extend significantly longer than that observed at the data store. We discuss the nature of such quality degradation and propose a few possible remedies.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, CIKM 201

Catching the flu: Syndromic surveillance, algorithmic governmentality and global health security

How do algorithms shape the imaginary and practice of security? Does their proliferation point to a shift in the political rationality of security? If so, what is the nature and extent of that shift? This article explores these questions in relation to global health security. Prompted by an epidemic of new infectious disease outbreaks – from HIV, SARS and pandemic flu, through to MERS and Ebola – many governments are making health security an integral part of their national security strategies. Algorithms are central to these developments because they underpin a number of nextgeneration syndromic surveillance systems now routinely used by governments and international organizations to rapidly detect new outbreaks globally. This article traces the origins, design and evolution of three such internet-based surveillance systems: 1) the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases, 2) the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, and 3) HealthMap. The article shows how the successive introduction of those three syndromic surveillance systems has propelled algorithmic technologies into the heart of global outbreak detection. This growing recourse to algorithms for the purposes of strengthening global health security, the article argues, signals a significant shift in the underlying problem, nature, and role of knowledge in contemporary security practices

Event Detection from Social Media Stream: Methods, Datasets and Opportunities

Social media streams contain large and diverse amount of information, ranging from daily-life stories to the latest global and local events and news. Twitter, especially, allows a fast spread of events happening real time, and enables individuals and organizations to stay informed of the events happening now. Event detection from social media data poses different challenges from traditional text and is a research area that has attracted much attention in recent years. In this paper, we survey a wide range of event detection methods for Twitter data stream, helping readers understand the recent development in this area. We present the datasets available to the public. Furthermore, a few research opportunitiesComment: 8 page

Detecting Events and Patterns in Large-Scale User Generated Textual Streams with Statistical Learning Methods

A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem of inferring information - or patterns in general - about events emerging in real life based on the contents of this textual stream. We show that it is possible to extract valuable information about social phenomena, such as an epidemic or even rainfall rates, by automatic analysis of the content published in Social Media, and in particular Twitter, using Statistical Machine Learning methods. An important intermediate task regards the formation and identification of features which characterise a target event; we select and use those textual features in several linear, non-linear and hybrid inference approaches achieving a significantly good performance in terms of the applied loss function. By examining further this rich data set, we also propose methods for extracting various types of mood signals revealing how affective norms - at least within the social web's population - evolve during the day and how significant events emerging in the real world are influencing them. Lastly, we present some preliminary findings showing several spatiotemporal characteristics of this textual information as well as the potential of using it to tackle tasks such as the prediction of voting intentions.Comment: PhD thesis, 238 pages, 9 chapters, 2 appendices, 58 figures, 49 table