Desperately Seeking (Environmental) Kuznets

The number of studies seeking to empirically characterize the reduced-form relationship between a country's economic growth and the quantity of various pollutants produced has recently increased significantly. In several cases researchers have found evidence in favor of an inverted-U "environmental Kuznets" curve. In the case of a major greenhouse gas, CO2, however, the evidence is at best mixed. This paper attempts to shed further light on this issue by using a newly developed data set covering over one hundred countries around the world for the last twenty five years and by considering alternative functional forms together with an effort to rigorously discriminate among competing alternatives.Environment, Growth, CO2 emissions, Panel data

Desperately Seeking Environmental Kuznets

The number of studies seeking to empirically characterize the reduced-form relationship between a country economic growth and the quantity of various pollutants produced has recently increased significantly. In several cases researchers have found evidence in favor of an inverted-U “environmental Kuznets” curve. In the case of a major greenhouse gas, CO2, however, the evidence is at best mixed. This paper attempts to shed further light on this issue by using a newly developed data set covering over one hundred countries around the world for the last twenty five years and by considering alternative functional forms together with an effort to rigorously discriminate among competing alternatives.Environment, Growth, CO2 Emissions, Panel Data

Desperately seeking (environmental) Kuznets

The number of studies seeking to empirically characterize the reduced-form relationship between a country economic growth and the quantity of various pollutants produced has recently increased significantly. In several cases researchers have found evidence in favor of an inverted-U “environmental Kuznets” curve. In the case of a major greenhouse gas, CO2, however, the evidence is at best mixed. This paper attempts to shed further light on this issue by using a newly developed data set covering over one hundred countries around the world for the last twenty five years and by considering alternative functional forms together with an effort to rigorously discriminate among competing alternatives

Environment and Economic Growth: Is Technical Change the Key to Decoupling?

The relationship between economic growth and pollution is very complex, depending upon a host of different factors. Thus the study of this phenomenon represents a challenging endeavor. While most economics papers begin with theory and support that theory with econometric evidence, the literature on Environmental Kuznets Curves has proceeded in the opposite direction: first developing an empirical observation about the world, and then attempting to supply appropriate theories. A number of papers have aimed at providing the theoretical underpinnings to the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Prominent here is the class of optimal growth models. These are usually studied from the point of view of the analytical conditions that must hold in order to obtain an inverted-U functional relationship between pollution and growth. These models are however seldom confronted with the data. In this paper we take one popular optimal growth model designed for climate change policy analysis and carry out a few simulation exercises with the purpose of characterizing the relationship between economic growth and emissions. In particular, we try to assess the relative contribution of the ingredients of the well-known decomposition of the environment-growth relationship put forth by Grossman (1995): according to it, the presumed inverted-U pattern results from the joint effect of scale, composition, and technology components. We do this focusing on the developed regions of the world and on a global pollutant, CO2 emissions.Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

Economic Development and Environmental Protection

There is a long-standing debate on the relationship between economic development and environmental quality. From a sustainable development viewpoint there has been a growing concern that the economic expansion of the world economy will cause irreparable damage to our planet. In the last few years several studies have appeared dealing with the relationship between the scale of economic activity and the level of pollution. In particular, if we concentrate on local pollutants several empirical studies have identified a bell shaped curve linking pollution to per capita GDP (in the case of global pollutants like CO2 the evidence is less clear-cut). This behaviour implies that, starting from low per capita income levels, per capita emissions or concentrations tend to increase but at a slower pace. After a certain level of income (which typically differs across pollutants) – the “turning point” – pollution starts to decline as income further increases. In analogy with the historic relationship between income distribution and income growth, the inverted-U relationship between per capita income and pollution has been termed “Environmental Kuznets Curve”. The purpose of this chapter is not to provide an overview the literature: there are several survey papers around doing precisely that. We instead reconsider the explanations that have been put forth for its inverted-U pattern. We look at the literature from this perspective. In addition, without resorting to any econometric estimation, we consider whether simple data analysis can help to shed some light on the motives that can rationalize the Environmental Kuznets Curve.Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

The Ups and Downs of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

By now the observation that some pollutants appear to increase and then decrease with economic development has become a widely accepted stylized fact. This paper argues that the fundamental insight of the empirical literature is merely that pollution does not necessarily increase with economic growth, and that the fundamental insight of the theoretical literature is that the observed inverse-U-shaped pollution-income relationship is neither necessary nor sufficient for Pareto-efficient environmental policies. Furthermore, the inverse-U-shaped path is not unique to environmental phenomenon, and may exist wherever a desirable good generates an undesirable side-effect. Finally, all of these points can be made without most of the econometric or theoretical mechanics that fill this literature.

Greenhouse gas emissions and the energy system: decomposition analysis and the environmental Kuznets curve

This paper discusses to what extent the recent trends in energy consumption and production are compatible with the requirements of sustainable development. For this purpose, starting from a simple identity applied to the energy sector, we use the decomposition analysis to derive a few analytical requirements for the long-term sustainability of the energy system and examine whether they are satisfied on the basis of the currently available data. From the analysis conducted in the paper, it emerges that an Environmental Kuznets Curve in energy intensity and/or carbon intensity may be insufficient to satisfy the sustainability conditions identified in the paper. Moreover, using simple graphical analysis, we show that the decomposition approach and the EKC imply two different relationships between per capita income (y) and carbon intensity (gy) and discuss the relative implications.sustainable development, energy, global warming, environmental Kuznets curve, decomposition analysis, Kaya identity

A panel estimation of the relationship between income, electric power consumption and CO2 emissions

This paper aims to give a contribution on the still questioned bell-shaped relationship between carbon dioxide polluting emissions and economic growth, which is commonly known in the literature as the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. In particular, it develops a panel analysis for a group of 77 countries, including 22 OECD and 55 NON-OECD units, over the period 1971-2006. We specify the estimated model by taking into account the role of electric power consumption and compare the performance of alternative panel estimators for a quadratic and cubic specification of the empirical model. Our findings seem to go in favor of the EKC relationship for the entire sample. However, this outcome is not confirmed when moving the analysis at sub-sample level where results highlight a non homogeneous picture across different groups of nations.Panel analysis, Environmental Kuznets Curve, CO2 emissions and Energy use