Bayesian network development for depots location selection with biomass supply system excellence

The renewable energy of the wood pellet market has taken great attention over the last few periods. However, the returns from the pellet business depend largely on how well the quality of biomass. The objective is to economically harvest pellets matching pellet standards set forward by the U.S. markets. The single-mindedness of this study is to develop a Bayesian network model to ensure a high-quality flow through the supply chain of the pallet industry in the top ten counties in Mississippi state. Multiple critical decisions (harvesting, storage, transportation, and quality control) of a biomass-to-pellet supply system could potentially affect the supply chain. The biomass-to pellet supply chain is an extremely challenging problem. For Multi-criteria Decision Making,we have developed criteria and sub-criteria associated with biomass-to pellet supply chain pellet. Experimental results specify that the biomass-to-pellet stream system is complex to the biomass quality parameters especially ash and moisture contents. Fifty were studied and ten locations were recommended and ranked based on affordability and resiliency of the availability of both corn stover and forest residues in the depot facilities. There are several anticipated and unpredicted energy turbulence in the Depots property. Pellets have been recognized as an alternative power approach to managing risk throughout power generation. These prospective users from using alternative power. This research proposes a solid foundation for in-depth future research to acquire detailed insights into how the Pellets depots location works in practice in Mississippi state to give a more substantial basis for strategic, tactical, and operational levels of possible risk profiles in Mississippi state

Methodologies for Simplified Lifeline System Risk Assessments

Natural hazards are a growing risk across the globe. As regions have urbanized, single events impact greater proportions of the population, and the populations within those regions have become more dependent on infrastructure systems. Regional resilience has become closely tied to the performance of infrastructure. For a comprehensive risk assessment losses caused by lifeline outage must be considered alongside structural and nonstructural risks. Many well developed techniques quantify structural and nonstructural risk; however, there are insufficient procedures to determine the likelihood of lifeline outages. Including lifelines in seismic assessments will provide a comprehensive risk, improving a decision maker’s capacity to efficiently balance mitigation against the full spectrum of risks. An ideal lifeline risk assessment is infeasible due to the large geographic scale of lifeline systems and their system structure; these same characteristics also make them vulnerable to disruption in hazard events. Probabilistic methods provide solutions for their analysis, but many of the necessary analysis variables remain unknown. Continued research and increased collection of infrastructure data may improve the ability of advanced probabilistic methods to study and forecast performance of lifelines, but many inputs for a complete probabilistic model are likely to remain unknown. This thesis recognizes these barriers to assessment and proposes a methodology that uses consequences to simplify analysis of lifeline systems. Risk is often defined as the product of probability of failure and consequence. Many assessments study the probability of failure and then consider the consequence. This thesis proposes the opposite, studying consequence first. In a theoretical model where all information is available the difference in approach is irrelevant; the results are the same regardless of order. In the real world however, studying consequence first provides an opportunity to simplify the system assessment. The proposed methodology starts with stakeholders defining consequences that constitute ruin, and then the lifeline system is examined and simplified to components that can produce such consequences. Previously large and expansive systems can be greatly simplified and made more approachable systems to study. The simplified methodology does not result in a comprehensive risk assessment, rather it provides an abbreviated risk profile of catastrophic risk; risk that constitutes ruin. By providing an assessment of only catastrophic lifeline risk, the risk of greatest importance is measured, while smaller recoverable risk remains unknown. This methodology aligns itself with the principle of resilience, the ability to withstand shocks and rebound. Assessments can be used directly to consider mitigation options that directly address stakeholder resilience. Many of the same probabilistic issues remain, but by simplifying the process, abbreviated lifelines assessments are more feasible providing stakeholders with information to make decisions in an environment that currently is largely unknown

A Holistic Approach to Sustainability Analysis of Industrial Networks

The aim of this thesis is to support the evaluation of sustainable development strategies for industrial networks in the context of industrial ecology (IE). Industrial networks are a group of units which carry out, or contribute to, industrial activity, and are connected by material and energy flows, but also capital and information exchanges. The components of an industrial network encompass resource extraction, processing and refining, forming and assembly, use, disposal, as well as recycling and reprocessing. The motivation behind this research is the realisation that much of the current environmental system analysis focus within IE lacks a structured approach to considering: • system environment • dynamic nature of the system and its environment • economic and social impacts • the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes. It is argued in this thesis that current environmental analysis approaches used in IE can be improved in their capacity to capture the complexity of industrial systems, with the objective of promoting sustainable development. While IE emphasises the benefit of a systems approach to identifying environmental strategies in industry, analysis tools have to date not engaged extensively with important aspects such as the influence of system environment and dynamics on the viability of an environmental strategy, or with the economic or social impacts of industrial system development, which are equally important for sustainable development. Nor is the assessment of the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes an integral part of environmental analysis tools in IE. This is particularly significant when, in fact, the degree of uncertainty in assumptions and data used increases with the scope, and therefore the abstraction, of the system under consideration. IE will have to engage with the network and contextual complexities to a greater degree if it is to evolve from a concept to the application of its principles in practice. The main contribution of this thesis is therefore the development of a structured approach to analysing industrial networks for the purpose of identifying strategies to encourage sustainable development, while accounting for the complexity of the underlying system as well as the problem context. This analysis is intended to allow the identification of preferred network development pathways and to test the effectiveness of sustainable development strategies. A top-down, prescriptive approach is adopted for this purpose. This approach is chosen as the industrial network analysis is intended to identify how a network should develop, rather than focusing on how it could develop. Industrial networks are systems which are complex in both their structure and behaviour. This thesis also delivers a characterisation of these networks, which serves two purposes – quantifying key elements of structure and behaviour; and using this information to build a foundation for subsequent industrial network analysis. The value of such an approach can be seen in the following example. With a detailed understanding of individual network characteristics, both separately and collectively, it is possible to determine the source of issues, the means available to address them, any barriers that might exist, and the consequences of implementing any strategic interventions. The analysis approach proposed in this thesis is based on multi-criteria decisions analysis (MCDA), which, as a process, combines initial problem structuring and subsequent quantitative analysis stages. The tools employed within MCDA have been employed variously around considerations of sustainable development. Their value in this thesis is their integration within a rigorous analytical framework. Rigorous problem structuring is attractive as it helps elucidate the complexities of the system and its environment and is, by definition, designed to deal with multiple environmental social and economic criteria that would have to be considered to promote sustainable development. For the quantitative analysis, the industrial network analysis draws from existing analysis tools in IE, but predominately from other systems research disciplines, such as process systems engineering (PSE) and supply chain management (SCM). These fields, due to their maturity and practical focus, have invested a lot of research into system design and strategic planning, capturing system dynamics and uncertainty to ensure, within selected system constraints, that a proposed system or changes to a system are viable, and that the system is capable of achieving the stated objectives. Both PSE and SCM rely heavily on optimisation for system design and planning, and achieve good results with it as an analytical tool. The similarity between industrial networks and process systems / supply chains, suggests that an optimisation platform, specifically multi-objective dynamic optimisation, could be employed fruitfully for the analysis of industrial networks. This is the approach taken in this thesis. It is consistent with the “top down” approach advocated previously, which is deemed preferable for the identification and implementation analysis of strategic interventions. This enables the determination of a structure (design) that is “best” able to operate under future conditions (planning) with respect to the chosen sustainable development objectives. However, an analysis is only ever as good as its underlying data and assumptions. The complexity and scope of the industrial network and the challenge of articulating sustainable development target(s) give rise to significant uncertainties. For this reason a framework is developed within this thesis that integrates uncertainty analysis into the overall approach, to obtain insight into the robustness of the analysis results. Quantifying all the uncertainties in an industrial network model can be a daunting task for a modeller, and a decision-maker can be confused by modelling results. Means are therefore suggested to reduce the set of uncertainties that have to be engaged with, by identifying those which impact critically on model outcomes. However, even if uncertainty cannot be reduced, and the implementation of any strategy retains a degree of risk, the uncertainty analysis has the benefit that it forces an analyst to engage in more detail with the network in question, and to be more critical of the underlying assumptions. The analysis approach is applied to two case studies in this thesis: one deals with waste avoidance in an existing wood-products network in a large urban metropolis; the other with the potential for renewable energy generation in a developing economy. Together, these case studies provide a rich tableau within which to demonstrate the full features of the industrial network analysis. These case studies highlight how the context within which the relevant industrial network functions influences greatly the evolution of the network over time; how uncertainty is managed; and what strategies are preferred in each case in order to enhance the contribution of each network to sustainable development. This thesis makes an intellectual contribution in the following areas: • the characterisation of industrial networks to highlight sources of environmental issues, role the characteristics (could) play in the identification of (preferred) sustainable development strategies, and the need to explicitly consider these in a systems analysis. • the synthesis, adaptation and application of existing tools to fulfil the need for analysis tools in IE that can handle both contextual and system complexity, and address the above mentioned issues of lacking consideration of o system environment o dynamic nature of the system and its environment o economic and social impacts o the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes. • the development and demonstration of an industrial network analysis approach that o is flexible enough to model any industrial network at the inter-firm level, regardless of form and configuration of materials and products circulated, and depending on the existing network and the proposed strategies. o is able to encompass a wide range of environmental strategies, either individually or in combination depending on what best suits the situation, rather than focusing on any strategy in particular. o ensures long term viability of strategies, rather than short term solutions delivering incremental improvement. • the development of a comprehensive approach to capturing and assessing the effect of uncertainty on solution robustness for industrial network analysis, including the screening to determine the most important parameters, considering valuation and technical uncertainties, including future uncertainty. The industrial network analysis approach presented in this thesis looks more to how a network should develop (according to a set of sustainable development objectives), rather than how it may in actual fact develop. Consequently, the influence of agent interests and behaviour is not considered explicitly. This may be construed as a limitation of the industrial analysis approach. However, it is argued that the “top down” modelling approach favoured here is useful at a policy-making level. Here, for example, government instrumentalities, trade organisations and industry groupings, non-government organisations and community-based organisations are likely to be interested more in the performance of the network as a whole, rather than (necessarily) following the behaviour of individual agents within the network. Future work could well entertain the prospect of a mixed approach, in which the top-down approach of this thesis is complemented by a “bottom-up”, agent-based analysis. In this manner, it would be possible to give an indication of how attainable the identified industrial network development pathways are. Furthermore, the use of government incentives can be explored to assess if network development could approach the preferred development pathway which is identified using the methodology and results articulated in this thesis

A Holistic Approach to Sustainability Analysis of Industrial Networks

The aim of this thesis is to support the evaluation of sustainable development strategies for industrial networks in the context of industrial ecology (IE). Industrial networks are a group of units which carry out, or contribute to, industrial activity, and are connected by material and energy flows, but also capital and information exchanges. The components of an industrial network encompass resource extraction, processing and refining, forming and assembly, use, disposal, as well as recycling and reprocessing. The motivation behind this research is the realisation that much of the current environmental system analysis focus within IE lacks a structured approach to considering: • system environment • dynamic nature of the system and its environment • economic and social impacts • the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes. It is argued in this thesis that current environmental analysis approaches used in IE can be improved in their capacity to capture the complexity of industrial systems, with the objective of promoting sustainable development. While IE emphasises the benefit of a systems approach to identifying environmental strategies in industry, analysis tools have to date not engaged extensively with important aspects such as the influence of system environment and dynamics on the viability of an environmental strategy, or with the economic or social impacts of industrial system development, which are equally important for sustainable development. Nor is the assessment of the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes an integral part of environmental analysis tools in IE. This is particularly significant when, in fact, the degree of uncertainty in assumptions and data used increases with the scope, and therefore the abstraction, of the system under consideration. IE will have to engage with the network and contextual complexities to a greater degree if it is to evolve from a concept to the application of its principles in practice. The main contribution of this thesis is therefore the development of a structured approach to analysing industrial networks for the purpose of identifying strategies to encourage sustainable development, while accounting for the complexity of the underlying system as well as the problem context. This analysis is intended to allow the identification of preferred network development pathways and to test the effectiveness of sustainable development strategies. A top-down, prescriptive approach is adopted for this purpose. This approach is chosen as the industrial network analysis is intended to identify how a network should develop, rather than focusing on how it could develop. Industrial networks are systems which are complex in both their structure and behaviour. This thesis also delivers a characterisation of these networks, which serves two purposes – quantifying key elements of structure and behaviour; and using this information to build a foundation for subsequent industrial network analysis. The value of such an approach can be seen in the following example. With a detailed understanding of individual network characteristics, both separately and collectively, it is possible to determine the source of issues, the means available to address them, any barriers that might exist, and the consequences of implementing any strategic interventions. The analysis approach proposed in this thesis is based on multi-criteria decisions analysis (MCDA), which, as a process, combines initial problem structuring and subsequent quantitative analysis stages. The tools employed within MCDA have been employed variously around considerations of sustainable development. Their value in this thesis is their integration within a rigorous analytical framework. Rigorous problem structuring is attractive as it helps elucidate the complexities of the system and its environment and is, by definition, designed to deal with multiple environmental social and economic criteria that would have to be considered to promote sustainable development. For the quantitative analysis, the industrial network analysis draws from existing analysis tools in IE, but predominately from other systems research disciplines, such as process systems engineering (PSE) and supply chain management (SCM). These fields, due to their maturity and practical focus, have invested a lot of research into system design and strategic planning, capturing system dynamics and uncertainty to ensure, within selected system constraints, that a proposed system or changes to a system are viable, and that the system is capable of achieving the stated objectives. Both PSE and SCM rely heavily on optimisation for system design and planning, and achieve good results with it as an analytical tool. The similarity between industrial networks and process systems / supply chains, suggests that an optimisation platform, specifically multi-objective dynamic optimisation, could be employed fruitfully for the analysis of industrial networks. This is the approach taken in this thesis. It is consistent with the “top down” approach advocated previously, which is deemed preferable for the identification and implementation analysis of strategic interventions. This enables the determination of a structure (design) that is “best” able to operate under future conditions (planning) with respect to the chosen sustainable development objectives. However, an analysis is only ever as good as its underlying data and assumptions. The complexity and scope of the industrial network and the challenge of articulating sustainable development target(s) give rise to significant uncertainties. For this reason a framework is developed within this thesis that integrates uncertainty analysis into the overall approach, to obtain insight into the robustness of the analysis results. Quantifying all the uncertainties in an industrial network model can be a daunting task for a modeller, and a decision-maker can be confused by modelling results. Means are therefore suggested to reduce the set of uncertainties that have to be engaged with, by identifying those which impact critically on model outcomes. However, even if uncertainty cannot be reduced, and the implementation of any strategy retains a degree of risk, the uncertainty analysis has the benefit that it forces an analyst to engage in more detail with the network in question, and to be more critical of the underlying assumptions. The analysis approach is applied to two case studies in this thesis: one deals with waste avoidance in an existing wood-products network in a large urban metropolis; the other with the potential for renewable energy generation in a developing economy. Together, these case studies provide a rich tableau within which to demonstrate the full features of the industrial network analysis. These case studies highlight how the context within which the relevant industrial network functions influences greatly the evolution of the network over time; how uncertainty is managed; and what strategies are preferred in each case in order to enhance the contribution of each network to sustainable development. This thesis makes an intellectual contribution in the following areas: • the characterisation of industrial networks to highlight sources of environmental issues, role the characteristics (could) play in the identification of (preferred) sustainable development strategies, and the need to explicitly consider these in a systems analysis. • the synthesis, adaptation and application of existing tools to fulfil the need for analysis tools in IE that can handle both contextual and system complexity, and address the above mentioned issues of lacking consideration of o system environment o dynamic nature of the system and its environment o economic and social impacts o the effect of uncertainty on analysis outcomes. • the development and demonstration of an industrial network analysis approach that o is flexible enough to model any industrial network at the inter-firm level, regardless of form and configuration of materials and products circulated, and depending on the existing network and the proposed strategies. o is able to encompass a wide range of environmental strategies, either individually or in combination depending on what best suits the situation, rather than focusing on any strategy in particular. o ensures long term viability of strategies, rather than short term solutions delivering incremental improvement. • the development of a comprehensive approach to capturing and assessing the effect of uncertainty on solution robustness for industrial network analysis, including the screening to determine the most important parameters, considering valuation and technical uncertainties, including future uncertainty. The industrial network analysis approach presented in this thesis looks more to how a network should develop (according to a set of sustainable development objectives), rather than how it may in actual fact develop. Consequently, the influence of agent interests and behaviour is not considered explicitly. This may be construed as a limitation of the industrial analysis approach. However, it is argued that the “top down” modelling approach favoured here is useful at a policy-making level. Here, for example, government instrumentalities, trade organisations and industry groupings, non-government organisations and community-based organisations are likely to be interested more in the performance of the network as a whole, rather than (necessarily) following the behaviour of individual agents within the network. Future work could well entertain the prospect of a mixed approach, in which the top-down approach of this thesis is complemented by a “bottom-up”, agent-based analysis. In this manner, it would be possible to give an indication of how attainable the identified industrial network development pathways are. Furthermore, the use of government incentives can be explored to assess if network development could approach the preferred development pathway which is identified using the methodology and results articulated in this thesis

Supply chain risk analysis

A new decision support system is proposed and developed that will help sustaining business in a high-risk business environment. The system is developed as a web application to better integrate the supply chain entities and to provide a common platform for performing risk analysis in a supply chain. The system performs a risk analysis and calculates risk factor with each activity in the supply considering its interrelationship with other activities. Bayesian networks along with fault tree structures are embedded in the system and logical rules are used to perform a qualitative fault tree analysis, as the data required to calculate the frequency of occurrence is rarely available. The developed system guides the risk assessment process: from asset identification to consequence analysis before estimating the risk factor associated with each activity in the supply chain. The system is tested with a sample case study on a highly explosive product. Results show that the system is capable of identifying high-risk threats. The system further needs to be developed to add a safeguard analysis module and to enable automatic data extraction from the enterprise resource planning and legacy databases. It is expected that the system on complete development and induction will help supply chain managers to manage business risks and operations more efficiently and effectively by providing a complete picture of the risk environment and safeguards required to reduce the risk level

ReSCon '11, Research Student Conference: Book of Abstracts

The fourth SED Research Student Conference (ReSCon2011) was hosted over three days, 20-22 June 2011, in the Hamilton Centre at Brunel University. The conference consisted of technical presentations, a poster session and social events. which focused on current research being conducted within the School of Engineering and Design by postgraduate research students from the School. The conference is held annually, and ReSCon plays a key role in contributing to research and innovations within the School