390 research outputs found
Predictive Scale-Bridging Simulations through Active Learning
Throughout computational science, there is a growing need to utilize the
continual improvements in raw computational horsepower to achieve greater
physical fidelity through scale-bridging over brute-force increases in the
number of mesh elements. For instance, quantitative predictions of transport in
nanoporous media, critical to hydrocarbon extraction from tight shale
formations, are impossible without accounting for molecular-level interactions.
Similarly, inertial confinement fusion simulations rely on numerical diffusion
to simulate molecular effects such as non-local transport and mixing without
truly accounting for molecular interactions. With these two disparate
applications in mind, we develop a novel capability which uses an active
learning approach to optimize the use of local fine-scale simulations for
informing coarse-scale hydrodynamics. Our approach addresses three challenges:
forecasting continuum coarse-scale trajectory to speculatively execute new
fine-scale molecular dynamics calculations, dynamically updating coarse-scale
from fine-scale calculations, and quantifying uncertainty in neural network
models
Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of the CISNET colorectal cancer models
PURPOSE: To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) 's SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.METHODS: We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANN) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.RESULTS: The optimal ANN for SimCRC had four hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had one hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 hours for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.CONCLUSIONS: Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, like the CISNET CRC models.</p
Report from the Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulation Task Force
The Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulations (TACS) Task Force was formed when
Program Managers from the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF)
expressed an interest in receiving input into the cosmological simulations
landscape related to the upcoming DOE/NSF Vera Rubin Observatory (Rubin),
NASA/ESA's Euclid, and NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST).
The Co-Chairs of TACS, Katrin Heitmann and Alina Kiessling, invited community
scientists from the USA and Europe who are each subject matter experts and are
also members of one or more of the surveys to contribute. The following report
represents the input from TACS that was delivered to the Agencies in December
2018.Comment: 36 pages, 3 figures. Delivered to NASA, NSF, and DOE in Dec 201
Coevolution of Machine Learning and Process-Based Modelling to Revolutionize Earth and Environmental Sciences: A Perspective
Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process-based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support. In this perspective, we assert that the cultural barriers between the ML and PBM communities limit the potential of ML, and even its ‘hybridization’ with PBM, for EES applications. Fundamental, but often ignored, differences between ML and PBM are discussed as well as their strengths and weaknesses in light of three overarching modelling objectives in EES, (1) nowcasting and prediction, (2) scenario analysis, and (3) diagnostic learning. The paper ponders over a ‘coevolutionary’ approach to model building, shifting away from a borrowing to a co-creation culture, to develop a generation of models that leverage the unique strengths of ML such as scalability to big data and high-dimensional mapping, while remaining faithful to process-based knowledge base and principles of model explainability and interpretability, and therefore, falsifiability
Machine Learning in Nuclear Physics
Advances in machine learning methods provide tools that have broad
applicability in scientific research. These techniques are being applied across
the diversity of nuclear physics research topics, leading to advances that will
facilitate scientific discoveries and societal applications.
This Review gives a snapshot of nuclear physics research which has been
transformed by machine learning techniques.Comment: Comments are welcom
2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report
As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections
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