Uncertainty and Interpretability Studies in Soft Computing with an Application to Complex Manufacturing Systems

In systems modelling and control theory, the benefits of applying neural networks have been extensively studied. Particularly in manufacturing processes, such as the prediction of mechanical properties of heat treated steels. However, modern industrial processes usually involve large amounts of data and a range of non-linear effects and interactions that might hinder their model interpretation. For example, in steel manufacturing the understanding of complex mechanisms that lead to the mechanical properties which are generated by the heat treatment process is vital. This knowledge is not available via numerical models, therefore an experienced metallurgist estimates the model parameters to obtain the required properties. This human knowledge and perception sometimes can be imprecise leading to a kind of cognitive uncertainty such as vagueness and ambiguity when making decisions. In system classification, this may be translated into a system deficiency - for example, small input changes in system attributes may result in a sudden and inappropriate change for class assignation. In order to address this issue, practitioners and researches have developed systems that are functional equivalent to fuzzy systems and neural networks. Such systems provide a morphology that mimics the human ability of reasoning via the qualitative aspects of fuzzy information rather by its quantitative analysis. Furthermore, these models are able to learn from data sets and to describe the associated interactions and non-linearities in the data. However, in a like-manner to neural networks, a neural fuzzy system may suffer from a lost of interpretability and transparency when making decisions. This is mainly due to the application of adaptive approaches for its parameter identification. Since the RBF-NN can be treated as a fuzzy inference engine, this thesis presents several methodologies that quantify different types of uncertainty and its influence on the model interpretability and transparency of the RBF-NN during its parameter identification. Particularly, three kind of uncertainty sources in relation to the RBF-NN are studied, namely: entropy, fuzziness and ambiguity. First, a methodology based on Granular Computing (GrC), neutrosophic sets and the RBF-NN is presented. The objective of this methodology is to quantify the hesitation produced during the granular compression at the low level of interpretability of the RBF-NN via the use of neutrosophic sets. This study also aims to enhance the disitnguishability and hence the transparency of the initial fuzzy partition. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested against a real case study for the prediction of the properties of heat-treated steels. Secondly, a new Interval Type-2 Radial Basis Function Neural Network (IT2-RBF-NN) is introduced as a new modelling framework. The IT2-RBF-NN takes advantage of the functional equivalence between FLSs of type-1 and the RBF-NN so as to construct an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2-FLS) that is able to deal with linguistic uncertainty and perceptions in the RBF-NN rule base. This gave raise to different combinations when optimising the IT2-RBF-NN parameters. Finally, a twofold study for uncertainty assessment at the high-level of interpretability of the RBF-NN is provided. On the one hand, the first study proposes a new methodology to quantify the a) fuzziness and the b) ambiguity at each RU, and during the formation of the rule base via the use of neutrosophic sets theory. The aim of this methodology is to calculate the associated fuzziness of each rule and then the ambiguity related to each normalised consequence of the fuzzy rules that result from the overlapping and to the choice with one-to-many decisions respectively. On the other hand, a second study proposes a new methodology to quantify the entropy and the fuzziness that come out from the redundancy phenomenon during the parameter identification. To conclude this work, the experimental results obtained through the application of the proposed methodologies for modelling two well-known benchmark data sets and for the prediction of mechanical properties of heat-treated steels conducted to publication of three articles in two peer-reviewed journals and one international conference

Unsupervised tracking of time-evolving data streams and an application to short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

I am indebted to many people for their help and support I receive during my Ph.D. study and research at DIBRIS-University of Genoa. First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my supervisors Prof.Dr. Masulli, and Prof.Dr. Rovetta for the invaluable guidance, frequent meetings, and discussions, and the encouragement and support on my way of research. I thanks all the members of the DIBRIS for their support and kindness during my 4 years Ph.D. I would like also to acknowledge the contribution of the projects Piattaforma per la mobili\ue0 Urbana con Gestione delle INformazioni da sorgenti eterogenee (PLUG-IN) and COST Action IC1406 High Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet). Last and most importantly, I wish to thanks my family: my wife Shaimaa who stays with me through the joys and pains; my daughter and son whom gives me happiness every-day; and my parents for their constant love and encouragement

IEEE Access Special Section Editorial: Big Data Technology and Applications in Intelligent Transportation

During the last few years, information technology and transportation industries, along with automotive manufacturers and academia, are focusing on leveraging intelligent transportation systems (ITS) to improve services related to driver experience, connected cars, Internet data plans for vehicles, traffic infrastructure, urban transportation systems, traffic collaborative management, road traffic accidents analysis, road traffic flow prediction, public transportation service plan, personal travel route plans, and the development of an effective ecosystem for vehicles, drivers, traffic controllers, city planners, and transportation applications. Moreover, the emerging technologies of the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing have provided unprecedented opportunities for the development and realization of innovative intelligent transportation systems where sensors and mobile devices can gather information and cloud computing, allowing knowledge discovery, information sharing, and supported decision making. However, the development of such data-driven ITS requires the integration, processing, and analysis of plentiful information obtained from millions of vehicles, traffic infrastructures, smartphones, and other collaborative systems like weather stations and road safety and early warning systems. The huge amount of data generated by ITS devices is only of value if utilized in data analytics for decision-making such as accident prevention and detection, controlling road risks, reducing traffic carbon emissions, and other applications which bring big data analytics into the picture

Granular Support Vector Machines Based on Granular Computing, Soft Computing and Statistical Learning

With emergence of biomedical informatics, Web intelligence, and E-business, new challenges are coming for knowledge discovery and data mining modeling problems. In this dissertation work, a framework named Granular Support Vector Machines (GSVM) is proposed to systematically and formally combine statistical learning theory, granular computing theory and soft computing theory to address challenging predictive data modeling problems effectively and/or efficiently, with specific focus on binary classification problems. In general, GSVM works in 3 steps. Step 1 is granulation to build a sequence of information granules from the original dataset or from the original feature space. Step 2 is modeling Support Vector Machines (SVM) in some of these information granules when necessary. Finally, step 3 is aggregation to consolidate information in these granules at suitable abstract level. A good granulation method to find suitable granules is crucial for modeling a good GSVM. Under this framework, many different granulation algorithms including the GSVM-CMW (cumulative margin width) algorithm, the GSVM-AR (association rule mining) algorithm, a family of GSVM-RFE (recursive feature elimination) algorithms, the GSVM-DC (data cleaning) algorithm and the GSVM-RU (repetitive undersampling) algorithm are designed for binary classification problems with different characteristics. The empirical studies in biomedical domain and many other application domains demonstrate that the framework is promising. As a preliminary step, this dissertation work will be extended in the future to build a Granular Computing based Predictive Data Modeling framework (GrC-PDM) with which we can create hybrid adaptive intelligent data mining systems for high quality prediction

Machine learning in solar physics

The application of machine learning in solar physics has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the complex processes that take place in the atmosphere of the Sun. By using techniques such as deep learning, we are now in the position to analyze large amounts of data from solar observations and identify patterns and trends that may not have been apparent using traditional methods. This can help us improve our understanding of explosive events like solar flares, which can have a strong effect on the Earth environment. Predicting hazardous events on Earth becomes crucial for our technological society. Machine learning can also improve our understanding of the inner workings of the sun itself by allowing us to go deeper into the data and to propose more complex models to explain them. Additionally, the use of machine learning can help to automate the analysis of solar data, reducing the need for manual labor and increasing the efficiency of research in this field.Comment: 100 pages, 13 figures, 286 references, accepted for publication as a Living Review in Solar Physics (LRSP

System Designs for Diabetic Foot Ulcer Image Assessment

For individuals with type 2 diabetes, diabetic foot ulcers represent a significant health issue and the wound care cost is quite high. Currently, clinicians and nurses mainly base their wound assessment on visual examination of wound size and the status of the wound tissue. This method is potentially inaccurate for wound assessment and requires extra clinical workload. In view of the prevalence of smartphones with high resolution digital camera, assessing wound healing by analyzing of real-time images using the significant computational power of today’s mobile devices is an attractive approach for managing foot ulcers. Alternatively, the smartphone may be used just for image capture and wireless transfer to a PC or laptop for image processing. To achieve accurate foot ulcer image assessment, we have developed and tested a novel automatic wound image analysis system which accomplishes the following conditions: 1) design of an easy-to-use image capture system which makes the image capture process comfortable for the patient and provides well-controlled image capture conditions; 2) synthesis of efficient and accurate algorithms for real-time wound boundary determination to measure the wound area size; 3) development of a quantitative method to assess the wound healing status based on a foot ulcer image sequence for a given patient and 4) design of a wound image assessment and management system that can be used both in the patient’s home and clinical environment in a tele-medicine fashion. In our work, the wound image is captured by the camera on the smartphone while the patient’s foot is held in place by an image capture box, which is specially design to aid patients in photographing ulcers occurring on the sole of their feet. The experimental results prove that our image capture system guarantees consistent illumination and a fixed distance between the foot and camera. These properties greatly reduce the complexity of the subsequent wound recognition and assessment. The most significant contribution of our work is the development of five different wound boundary determination approaches based on different computer vision algorithms. The first approach employs the level set algorithm to determine the wound boundary directly based on a manually set initial curve. The second and third approaches are the mean-shift segmentation based methods augmented by foot outline detection and analysis. These two approaches have been shown to be efficient to implement (especially on smartphones), prior-knowledge independent and able to provide reasonably accurate wound segmentation results given a set of well-tuned parameters. However, this method suffers from the lack of self-adaptivity due to the fact that it is not based on machine learning. Consequently, a two-stage Support Vector Machine (SVM) binary classifier based wound recognition approach is developed and implemented. This approach consists of three major steps 1) unsupervised super-pixel segmentation, 2) feature descriptor extraction for each super-pixel and 3) supervised classifier based wound boundary determination. The experimental results show that this approach provides promising performance (sensitivity: 73.3%, specificity: 95.6%) when dealing with foot ulcer images captured with our image capture box. In the third approach, we further relax the image capture constraints and generalize the application of our wound recognition system by applying the conditional random field (CRF) based model to solve the wound boundary determination. The key modules in this approach are the TextonBoost based potential learning at different scales and efficient CRF model inference to find the optimal labeling. Finally, the standard K-means clustering algorithm is applied to the determined wound area for color based wound tissue classification. To train the models used in the last two approaches, as well as to evaluate all three methods, we have collected about 100 wound images at the wound clinic in UMass Medical School by tracking 15 patients for a 2-year period, following an IRB approved protocol. The wound recognition results were compared with the ground truth generated by combining clinical labeling from three experienced clinicians. Specificity and sensitivity based measures indicate that the CRF based approach is the most reliable method despite its implementation complexity and computational demands. In addition, sample images of Moulage wound simulations are also used to increase the evaluation flexibility. The advantages and disadvantages of three approaches are described. Another important contribution of this work has been development of a healing score based mechanism for quantitative wound healing status assessment. The wound size and color composition measurements were converted to a score number ranging from 0-10, which indicates the healing trend based on comparisons of subsequent images to an initial foot ulcer image. By comparing the result of the healing score algorithm to the healing scores determined by experienced clinicians, we assess the clinical validity of our healing score algorithm. The level of agreement of our healing score with the three assessing clinicians was quantified by using the Kripendorff’s Alpha Coefficient (KAC). Finally, a collaborative wound image management system between the PC and smartphone was designed and successfully applied in the wound clinic for patients’ wound tracking purpose. This system is proven to be applicable in clinical environment and capable of providing interactive foot ulcer care in a telemedicine fashion

Z-Numbers-Based Approach to Hotel Service Quality Assessment

In this study, we are analyzing the possibility of using Z-numbers for measuring the service quality and decision-making for quality improvement in the hotel industry. Techniques used for these purposes are based on consumer evalu- ations - expectations and perceptions. As a rule, these evaluations are expressed in crisp numbers (Likert scale) or fuzzy estimates. However, descriptions of the respondent opinions based on crisp or fuzzy numbers formalism not in all cases are relevant. The existing methods do not take into account the degree of con- fidence of respondents in their assessments. A fuzzy approach better describes the uncertainties associated with human perceptions and expectations. Linguis- tic values are more acceptable than crisp numbers. To consider the subjective natures of both service quality estimates and confidence degree in them, the two- component Z-numbers Z = (A, B) were used. Z-numbers express more adequately the opinion of consumers. The proposed and computationally efficient approach (Z-SERVQUAL, Z-IPA) allows to determine the quality of services and iden- tify the factors that required improvement and the areas for further development. The suggested method was applied to evaluate the service quality in small and medium-sized hotels in Turkey and Azerbaijan, illustrated by the example