Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Detailed Monte-Carlo Simulation for the Belle TOF System

We have developed a detailed Monte Carlo simulation program for the Belle TOF system. Based on GEANT simulation, it takes account of all physics processes in the TOF scintillation counters and readout electronics. The simulation reproduces very well the performance of the Belle TOF system, including the dE/dx response, the time walk effect, the time resolution, and the hit efficiency due to beam background. In this report, we will describe the Belle TOF simulation program in detail.Comment: To be submitted to NI

Applications of statistical methods and techniques to auditing and accounting

Statistical Methods;Auditing;accounting/ accountancy

Statistical modelling of software reliability

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety

Application of neutrosophic Poisson probability distribution series for certain subclass of analytic univalent function

Necessary and sufficient conditions for neutrosophic Poisson probability distribution series to be in the classes Mnγ (θ) were derived by means of coefficient inequalities. The results obtained further strengthening the relationships between geometric function theory and statistics and by extension, fuzzy logic.Publisher's Versio

An exploratory study on the emergence of management control systems: formalizing human resources in small growing firms

The adoption of management control systems (MCS) is a key element in managing the tension that growth imposes on young growing firms. Despite its importance to a large number of organizations, only recently has the empirical literature devoted attention to the evolution of these systems over the lifecycle of firms [Moores and Yuen, Account. Organizat. Soc. 26 (2001) 351]. This paper builds upon existing management control theory, mostly focused on established organizations, and existing predictions based on extended field observations to explore how these systems are adopted within growing firms. To advance theory, the paper also draws from the entrepreneurship and life cycle literatures. It identifies several variables as drivers of the emergence of management control systems including the size of the organization, its age, the replacement of the founder as CEO, and the existence of outside investors. The empirical evidence, from a database on the adoption of human resource management systems, is consistent with these variables being associated with the adoption of MCS. The paper also provides initial results on how the emergence of various types of management control systems depends on which systems the organization has already adopted. 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Accident Analysis and Prevention: Course Notes 1987/88

This report consists of the notes from a series of lectures given by the authors for a course entitled Accident Analysis and Prevention. The course took place during the second term of a one year Masters degree course in Transport Planning and Engineering run by the Institute for Transport Studies and the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Leeds. The course consisted of 18 lectures of which 16 are reported on in this document (the remaining two, on Human Factors, are not reported on in this document as no notes were provided). Each lecture represents one chapter of this document, except in two instances where two lectures are covered in one chapter (Chapters 10 and 14). The course first took place in 1988, and at the date of publication has been run for a second time. This report contains the notes for the initial version of the course. A number of changes were made in the content and emphasis of the course during its second run, mainly due to a change of personnel, with different ideas and experiences in the field of accident analysis and prevention. It is likely that each time the course is run, there will be significant changes, but that the notes provided in this document can be considered to contain a number of the core elements of any future version of the course