Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Fuzzy GMDH and its application to forecasting financial processes

This paper is devoted to the investigation and application of the fuzzy inductive modeling method known as Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) in problems of Data Mining, in particularly its application to solving the forecasting tasks in financial sphere. The advantage of the inductive modeling method GMDH is a possibility of constructing an adequate model directly in the process of algorithm run. The generalization of GMDH in case of uncertainty — a new method fuzzy GMDH is described which enables to construct fuzzy models almost automatically. The algorithm of fuzzy GMDH is considered. Fuzzy GMDH with Gaussian and bell-wise membership functions MF are considered and their similarity with triangular MF is shown. Fuzzy GMDH with different partial descriptions orthogonal polynomials of Chebyshev and Fourier are considered. The problem of adaptation of fuzzy models obtained by FGMDH is considered and the corresponding adaptation algorithm is described. The extension and generalization of fuzzy GMDH in case of fuzzy inputs is considered and its properties are analyzed. The experimental investigations of the suggested FGMDH were carried out

Uncertainty and Interpretability Studies in Soft Computing with an Application to Complex Manufacturing Systems

In systems modelling and control theory, the benefits of applying neural networks have been extensively studied. Particularly in manufacturing processes, such as the prediction of mechanical properties of heat treated steels. However, modern industrial processes usually involve large amounts of data and a range of non-linear effects and interactions that might hinder their model interpretation. For example, in steel manufacturing the understanding of complex mechanisms that lead to the mechanical properties which are generated by the heat treatment process is vital. This knowledge is not available via numerical models, therefore an experienced metallurgist estimates the model parameters to obtain the required properties. This human knowledge and perception sometimes can be imprecise leading to a kind of cognitive uncertainty such as vagueness and ambiguity when making decisions. In system classification, this may be translated into a system deficiency - for example, small input changes in system attributes may result in a sudden and inappropriate change for class assignation. In order to address this issue, practitioners and researches have developed systems that are functional equivalent to fuzzy systems and neural networks. Such systems provide a morphology that mimics the human ability of reasoning via the qualitative aspects of fuzzy information rather by its quantitative analysis. Furthermore, these models are able to learn from data sets and to describe the associated interactions and non-linearities in the data. However, in a like-manner to neural networks, a neural fuzzy system may suffer from a lost of interpretability and transparency when making decisions. This is mainly due to the application of adaptive approaches for its parameter identification. Since the RBF-NN can be treated as a fuzzy inference engine, this thesis presents several methodologies that quantify different types of uncertainty and its influence on the model interpretability and transparency of the RBF-NN during its parameter identification. Particularly, three kind of uncertainty sources in relation to the RBF-NN are studied, namely: entropy, fuzziness and ambiguity. First, a methodology based on Granular Computing (GrC), neutrosophic sets and the RBF-NN is presented. The objective of this methodology is to quantify the hesitation produced during the granular compression at the low level of interpretability of the RBF-NN via the use of neutrosophic sets. This study also aims to enhance the disitnguishability and hence the transparency of the initial fuzzy partition. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested against a real case study for the prediction of the properties of heat-treated steels. Secondly, a new Interval Type-2 Radial Basis Function Neural Network (IT2-RBF-NN) is introduced as a new modelling framework. The IT2-RBF-NN takes advantage of the functional equivalence between FLSs of type-1 and the RBF-NN so as to construct an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2-FLS) that is able to deal with linguistic uncertainty and perceptions in the RBF-NN rule base. This gave raise to different combinations when optimising the IT2-RBF-NN parameters. Finally, a twofold study for uncertainty assessment at the high-level of interpretability of the RBF-NN is provided. On the one hand, the first study proposes a new methodology to quantify the a) fuzziness and the b) ambiguity at each RU, and during the formation of the rule base via the use of neutrosophic sets theory. The aim of this methodology is to calculate the associated fuzziness of each rule and then the ambiguity related to each normalised consequence of the fuzzy rules that result from the overlapping and to the choice with one-to-many decisions respectively. On the other hand, a second study proposes a new methodology to quantify the entropy and the fuzziness that come out from the redundancy phenomenon during the parameter identification. To conclude this work, the experimental results obtained through the application of the proposed methodologies for modelling two well-known benchmark data sets and for the prediction of mechanical properties of heat-treated steels conducted to publication of three articles in two peer-reviewed journals and one international conference

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature

The use of response surface methodology and artificial neural networks for the establishment of a design space for a sustained release salbutamol sulphate formulation

Quality by Design (QbD) is a systematic approach that has been recommended as suitable for the development of quality pharmaceutical products. The QbD approach commences with the definition of a quality target drug profile and predetermined objectives that are then used to direct the formulation development process with an emphasis on understanding the pharmaceutical science and manufacturing principles that apply to a product. The design space is directly linked to the use of QbD for formulation development and is a multidimensional combination and interaction of input variables and process parameters that have been demonstrated to provide an assurance of quality. The objective of these studies was to apply the principles of QbD as a framework for the optimisation of a sustained release (SR) formulation of salbutamol sulphate (SBS), and for the establishment of a design space using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). SBS is a short-acting ♭₂ agonist that is used for the management of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The use of a SR formulation of SBS may provide clinical benefits in the management of these respiratory disorders. Ashtalin®8 ER (Cipla Ltd., Mumbai, Maharashtra, India) was selected as a reference formulation for use in these studies. An Ishikawa or Cause and Effect diagram was used to determine the impact of formulation and process factors that have the potential to affect product quality. Key areas of concern that must be monitored include the raw materials, the manufacturing equipment and processes, and the analytical and assessment methods employed. The conditions in the laboratory and manufacturing processes were carefully monitored and recorded for any deviation from protocol, and equipment for assessment of dosage form performance, including dissolution equipment, balances and hardness testers, underwent regular maintenance. Preliminary studies to assess the potential utility of Methocel® Kl OOM, alone and in combination with other matrix forming polymers, revealed that the combination of this polymer with xanthan gum and Carbopol® has the potential to modulate the release of SBS at a specific rate, for a period of 12 hr. A central composite design using Methocel® KlOOM, xanthan gum, Carbopol® 974P and Surelease® as the granulating fluid was constructed to fully evaluate the impact of these formulation variables on the rate and extent of SBS release from manufactured formulations. The results revealed that although Methocel® KlOOM and xanthan gum had the greatest retardant effect on drug release, interactions between the polymers used in the study were also important determinants of the measureable responses. An ANN model was trained for optimisation using the data generated from a central composite study. The efficiency of the network was optimised by assessing the impact of the number of nodes in the hidden layer using a three layer Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP). The results revealed that a network with nine nodes in the hidden layer had the best predictive ability, suitable for application to formulation optimisation studies. Pharmaceutical optimisation was conducted using both the RSM and the trained ANN models. The results from the two optimisation procedures yielded two different formulation compositions that were subjected to in vitro dissolution testing using USP Apparatus 3. The results revealed that, although the formulation compositions that were derived from the optimisation procedures were different, both solutions gave reproducible results for which the dissolution profiles were indeed similar to that of the reference formulation. RSM and ANN were further investigated as possible means of establishing a design space for formulation compositions that would result in dosage forms that have similar in vitro release test profiles comparable to the reference product. Constraint plots were used to determine the bounds of the formulation variables that would result in the manufacture of dosage forms with the desired release profile. ANN simulations with hypothetical formulations that were generated within a small region of the experimental domain were investigated as a means of understanding the impact of varying the composition of the formulation on resultant dissolution profiles. Although both methods were suitable for the establishment of a design space, the use of ANN may be better suited for this purpose because of the manner in which ANN handles data. As more information about the behaviour of a formulation and its processes is generated during the product Iifecycle, ANN may be used to evaluate the impact of formulation and process variables on measureable responses. It is recommended that ANN may be suitable for the optimisation of pharmaceutical formulations and establishment of a design space in line with ICH Pharmaceutical Development [1], Quality Risk Management [2] and Pharmaceutical Quality Systems [3

Parallelizing support vector machines for scalable image annotation

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Machine learning techniques have facilitated image retrieval by automatically classifying and annotating images with keywords. Among them Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are used extensively due to their generalization properties. However, SVM training is notably a computationally intensive process especially when the training dataset is large. In this thesis distributed computing paradigms have been investigated to speed up SVM training, by partitioning a large training dataset into small data chunks and process each chunk in parallel utilizing the resources of a cluster of computers. A resource aware parallel SVM algorithm is introduced for large scale image annotation in parallel using a cluster of computers. A genetic algorithm based load balancing scheme is designed to optimize the performance of the algorithm in heterogeneous computing environments. SVM was initially designed for binary classifications. However, most classification problems arising in domains such as image annotation usually involve more than two classes. A resource aware parallel multiclass SVM algorithm for large scale image annotation in parallel using a cluster of computers is introduced. The combination of classifiers leads to substantial reduction of classification error in a wide range of applications. Among them SVM ensembles with bagging is shown to outperform a single SVM in terms of classification accuracy. However, SVM ensembles training are notably a computationally intensive process especially when the number replicated samples based on bootstrapping is large. A distributed SVM ensemble algorithm for image annotation is introduced which re-samples the training data based on bootstrapping and training SVM on each sample in parallel using a cluster of computers. The above algorithms are evaluated in both experimental and simulation environments showing that the distributed SVM algorithm, distributed multiclass SVM algorithm, and distributed SVM ensemble algorithm, reduces the training time significantly while maintaining a high level of accuracy in classifications