Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis techniques in building performance simulation to support conceptual building and system design

Due to advances in computing and modeling, the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC)industry has arrived at an era of digital empiricism. Computational simulation tools are widely used across many engineering disciplines for design, evaluation and analysis. Experts in the field agree that design decisions taken during the early design stages have a significant impact on the real performance of the building. Nevertheless, building performance simulation is still hardly used during conceptual design. The European Commission has targeted a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions, a 20% increase of energy efficiency and a 20% increase in the use of renewable energy by 2020. These ambitious aims have resulted in the recasting of the Energy for Buildings Directive, demanding nearly-zero-net energy-buildings for new buildings and major refurbishments by 2020. The formulated aim requires for the first time an integrated design of the building’s demand and supply systems. The current research was triggered by the above observation. It uses semi-structured interviews and critical reviews of literature and software to establish the reasons that prevent Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) consultants from adopting Building Performance Simulation (BPS) tools and to identify the needs of practitioners during the conceptual design stage. In response to the identified needs, a rapid iterative development process is deployed to produce a prototypical software tool. Finally, the tool is heuristically tested on expert users to evaluate its capability to support the conceptual design process. The results obtained from interviews and reviews highlight that HVAC consultants work with an increasing number of design alternatives to prevent dysfunctional buildings. The complexity of design problems is increasing on the one hand due to the need for an early integration of engineering discipline’s and on the other hand due to the challenges in meeting the even more stringent requirements of new buildings. Furthermore, design teams run the risk of only identifying suboptimal solutions for the design problem when they limit themselves too early to a small number of design alternatives. The use of simulation tools helps facilitate a quick turnaround of performance evaluations for a great number of design alternatives early in the design process. By doing so, performance simulation tools have the potential to supplement design experience and support decision making. However, simulation tools are perceived by many as too detailed to be readily used for conceptual design support. Research findings suggest that tools for the early design stages are required to enable parametric studies and to provide facilities to explore the relationships between potential design decisions and performance aspects. Tools need to be able to dynamically scale the resolution of their interfaces to fit the different levels of information density characteristic of the different design stages. In addition, they need to be flexible enough to facilitate expansion of the system representations with innovative design concepts as the design progresses. Due to the need for parametric studies and the exploration of the relationships between potential design decision and performance aspects, this research explores the extension and application of BPS tools with techniques for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for conceptual design support. This endeavor requires (1) the evaluation and selection of an extension strategy, (2) the determination of the format and availability of input to techniques for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis, as well as (3) developing knowledge regarding the extent and content of the design option space. To avoid the need to modify the source code of BPS tools, an external strategy is applied that embeds an existing simulation engine into a shell with extra features for statistical pre and post-processing by Latin Hypercube sampling and regression based sensitivity analysis. With regards to the model resolution, results suggest that it is more beneficial to use detailed models with adaptive interfaces rather than simpler tools. The advantages are twofold. Firstly, the BPS tool can use an existing validated simulation model - rather than a specifically developed abstract model with limited applicability. Secondly, the model is able to provide consistent feedback throughout the lifetime of the building. Within the iterative process, the conceptual design stage has some distinctive tasks, such as to explore the option space and to generate and evaluate design concepts. The option space is multidimensional, due to its multi-disciplinary set-up and wide-ranging interests of the participating practitioners. An empirical study as part of the research demonstrates the presence of at least two attributes, four subsystem categories and four relationships. Depending on the experience of the practicing designer, components, attributes and relationships are used to a very different extent. While experienced HVAC consultants seem to work mainly with relationships when compiling a design concept, novice designers prefer to work with components. The sampling based analysis strategy requires knowledge about the uncertainty of the parametric model input in the form of probability distribution functions. On the basis of a survey on internal gains for offices, this thesis concludes that current design guidelines provide useful data in a suitable format. Measurements conducted in an office building in Amsterdam confirm the trend towards decreasing equipment gains and the proportional increase of lighting gains. However, in the absence of data to derive a probability density function, this research suggests the definition of "explanatory" scenarios. It is common practice to use "normative" scenarios as input in building performance studies aiming to prove compliance with building regulations. The use of "exploratory" scenarios is less common. Scenario based load profiles have to meet three characteristics. They have to be: (1) locally representative; (2) up-to date and (3) need to match workplace culture. As part of this thesis explanatory data sets were developed representing climate change scenarios for The Netherlands. The exploratory scenarios facilitate the robustness assessment of the future performance of design alternatives. Tests with the Dutch data sets confirm that neither the current reference data nor the projected reference data provide valid results to predict uncertainty ranges for the peak cooling load as a potential robustness indicator. A simulation based comparative robustness assessment of three HVAC concepts over 15 and 30 years is reported. The results indicate a robust future performance for the floor-cooling based design alternative with respect to thermal comfort and cooling energy demand. The software prototype shows that detailed simulation tools with features for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis provide the facilities to explore consequences of potential design decisions on performance aspects. In addition, they enable parametric studies and create the possibility to quantify parameter interactions and their collective impact on the performance aspect. Heuristic usability evaluation of the software prototype confirms the value to design practice. 85% of approached HVAC consultants state that the uncertainty of performance aspects is an important parameter to support conceptual design. More importantly, 80% of the practitioners consider the prototype to have great potential to reduce the number of necessary design iterations. This thesis concludes that simulation tools that quantitatively address uncertainties and sensitivities related to conceptual building design generate value by (1) providing an indication of the accuracy of the performance predictions; (2) allowing the identification of parameters and systems to which performance metrics react sensitively and in-sensitively, respectively; and (3) enabling a robustness assessment of design alternatives

A User-Centred Methodology to Design and Simulate Smart Home Environments and Related Services

openI progressi nelle tecnologie di automazione e comunicazione all'interno degli edifici residenziali offrono molti interessanti vantaggi per lo sviluppo delle Smart Home, come l'aumento di efficienza energetica, il miglioramento il comfort per gli abitanti e la riduzione dei costi operativi per il proprietario. L'aggregazione e la condivisione dei dati all'interno delle reti possono essere garantite dal moderno approccio denominato Internet delle cose (IoT) e supportati dalle nuove tecnologie dell'informazione e della comunicazione (ICT). Tali tecnologie si stanno evolvendo e le abitazioni stanno diventando luoghi tecnologici popolati da una moltitudine di dispositivi in grado di raccogliere una grande quantità di dati e di cooperare in modo intelligente per controllare tutti i dispositivi connessi, come gli elettrodomestici, l'illuminazione, i sistemi di riscaldamento, ecc. Da un lato, l’intelligenza crescente dei dispositivi connessi produce una grande quantità di dati; dall'altro lato, la complessità di tali dati crea difficoltà di classificazione, trasmissione ed interpretazione delle informazioni utili. Entrambi gli aspetti possono ridurre drasticamente i potenziali vantaggi e limitare la diffusione dei cosiddetti dispositivi “smart”. Mentre a livello aziendale già esistono soluzioni di automazione affermate ed ampiamente utilizzate, le applicazioni per le abitazioni private sono ancora di difficile diffusione a causa della mancanza di standard di comunicazione e della presenza di dispositivi e sistemi altamente eterogenei e quindi di difficile integrazione. Inoltre, anche quando la connessione tra due dispositivi viene stabilita, renderli interoperabili è un’altra grande sfida a causa delle differenze nelle modalità di funzionamento e della difficoltà di integrazione dell'interfaccia. Infatti, le Smart Home non consentono ancora una elevata interoperabilità e gli studi fatti sono spesso fortemente orientati alla tecnologia e concentrati sulle potenzialità dei singoli sottosistemi, trascurando i benefici per gli utenti finali. A tale scopo, questo lavoro definisce un modello di gestione delle informazioni per ambienti domestici intelligenti con lo scopo di supportare la progettazione e la simulazione dei dispositivi “smart” nonché dei servizi sviluppati. Tale modello considera diverse tipologie di dispositivi, le relazioni esistenti tra loro, i flussi informativi e le modalità di interazione dell’utente per modellare correttamente l'ambiente e definirne il comportamento. Il modello sviluppato supporta la progettazione della Smart Home ed è in grado di simulare le funzionalità dei dispositivi con lo scopo finale di valutare i benefici dei servizi forniti.The advances in home automation and communication technologies offer several attractive benefits for the modern smart home, such as increased energy efficiency, improved residential comfort and reduced operative costs for the homeowner. Data aggregation and sharing within the networks can be guaranteed by modern Internet of Things (IoT) approaches and supported by available Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) tools. Such technologies are evolving and the private houses are becoming technological places populated by a multitude of devices able to collect a huge quantity of data and to cooperate in an intelligent way to control different domains, from household appliances to lighting or heating and ventilation. On one hand, the rising intelligence of smart devices makes a large amount of data available; on the other hand, data complexity creates difficulties in classifying, transmitting and interpreting essential data. Both aspects may drastically reduce the potential advantages and limit the diffusion smart devices. While in building automation proven solutions already exist, tailored applications for private houses and integration among heterogeneous devices and systems are still challenging due to the lack of standards and the variety of adopted communication protocols and data model schemas. Furthermore, even when the device connection and consolidation are achieved, making them cooperate in an interoperable way is another big challenge due to differences in usage paradigms, operation modes and interface integration. In fact, Smart Homes still lack of high interoperability and researches are often strongly technology-oriented and focused on single sub-system potentialities neglecting the expected benefits for the final users. For this purpose, the presented research defines an information management model for the smart home environment to support design and simulation of its devices as well as the enabled services. Such a model considers different device typologies, their mutual relationships, the information flows and the user interaction modalities in order to properly model the environment and define its behavior. It supports the design of the smart home by simulating the devices’ functionalities and estimating the expected performances.INGEGNERIA MECCANICA E GESTIONALEopenCapitanelli, AndreaCapitanelli, Andre

Usability context analysis: a practical guide

The usability of a product is affected not only by the features of the product itself, but also by the characteristics of the users, the tasks they are carrying out, and the technical, organisational and physical environment in which the product is used. In this guide, we use the term 'context' to include all factors which affect the usability of the product, excluding the features of the product itself. We use the term 'product' to represent any interactive system or device designed to support the performance of users' tasks

User-centered design criteria in automobile design with a case study of automobile dashboard design

Thesis(Master)--Izmir Institute of Technology, Industrial Design, Izmir, 2006Includes bibliographical references (pages: 100-102)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxi,102 leavesOur era provides us enormous changes and unforeseen advancements in technology, which lead to specific changes in economic and socio-cultural values. As a result of this shift, consumer.s need and expectations have changed into a search for new experiences. Companies, in search of satisfying the new expectations of this era.sconsumer, aspire to be innovative. To achieve this, they are concentrate on the user as the main source of innovation and design their products taking into consideration ergonomic, user needs and functionality. Automotive Industries is the one of the most developed and changed industries. Nowadays, especially interior of the automobile has changed with significant development. This paper describes and discusses the approach development aspects, and evoluation phases of a new generation interior design of automobile. The primary interest in the driver.s environment is the relationship between the driver.s seat, steering wheel and dashboard location. These are the workstation components that the driver required to stay in constand contact with, and the location of these control dictates the driver.s posture. Consequently, this study mainly aims to explore the role of user-centered design criterias for design phase and the role of ergonomic and human factors for automobile dashboard design

An aesthetics of touch: investigating the language of design relating to form

How well can designers communicate qualities of touch? This paper presents evidence that they have some capability to do so, much of which appears to have been learned, but at present make limited use of such language. Interviews with graduate designer-makers suggest that they are aware of and value the importance of touch and materiality in their work, but lack a vocabulary to fully relate to their detailed explanations of other aspects such as their intent or selection of materials. We believe that more attention should be paid to the verbal dialogue that happens in the design process, particularly as other researchers show that even making-based learning also has a strong verbal element to it. However, verbal language alone does not appear to be adequate for a comprehensive language of touch. Graduate designers-makers’ descriptive practices combined non-verbal manipulation within verbal accounts. We thus argue that haptic vocabularies do not simply describe material qualities, but rather are situated competences that physically demonstrate the presence of haptic qualities. Such competencies are more important than groups of verbal vocabularies in isolation. Design support for developing and extending haptic competences must take this wide range of considerations into account to comprehensively improve designers’ capabilities

Human Factors Considerations in System Design

Human factors considerations in systems design was examined. Human factors in automated command and control, in the efficiency of the human computer interface and system effectiveness are outlined. The following topics are discussed: human factors aspects of control room design; design of interactive systems; human computer dialogue, interaction tasks and techniques; guidelines on ergonomic aspects of control rooms and highly automated environments; system engineering for control by humans; conceptual models of information processing; information display and interaction in real time environments

Cognitive Buildings

Cognitive building is a pioneering topic envisioning the future of our built environment. The concept of "cognitive" provides a paradigm shift that steps from the static concept of the building as a container of human activities towards the modernist vision of "machine à habiter" of Le Corbusier, where the technological content adds the capability of learning from users' behavior and environmental variables to adapt itself to achieve major goals such as user comfort, energy-saving, flexible functionality, high durability, and good maintainability. The concept is based on digital frameworks and IoT networks towards the concept of a smart city

Seventh Annual Workshop on Space Operations Applications and Research (SOAR 1993), volume 2

This document contains papers presented at the Space Operations, Applications and Research Symposium (SOAR) Symposium hosted by NASA/Johnson Space Center (JSC) and cosponsored by NASA/JSC and U.S. Air Force Materiel Command. SOAR included NASA and USAF programmatic overviews, plenary session, panel discussions, panel sessions, and exhibits. It invited technical papers in support of U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, Department of Energy, NASA, and USAF programs in the following areas: robotics and telepresence, automation and intelligent systems, human factors, life support, and space maintenance and servicing. SOAR was concerned with Government-sponsored research and development relevant to aerospace operations

Occupant-Centric Simulation-Aided Building Design Theory, Application, and Case Studies

This book promotes occupants as a focal point for the design process