Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques for Electricity Markets

This book focuses on the recent development of forecasting and risk management techniques for electricity markets. In addition, we discuss research on new trading platforms and environments using blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) markets and computer agents. The book consists of two parts. The first part is entitled “Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques” and contains five chapters related to weather and electricity derivatives, and load and price forecasting for supporting electricity trading. The second part is entitled “Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Electricity Trading System and Strategy” and contains the following five chapters related to the feasibility and enhancement of P2P energy trading from various aspects

Market-based transmission congestion management using extended optimal power flow techniques

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University, 5/9/2001This thesis describes research into the problem of transmission congestion management. The causes, remedies, pricing methods, and other issues of transmission congestion are briefly reviewed. This research is to develop market-based approaches to cope with transmission congestion in real-time, short-run and long-run efficiently, economically and fairly. Extended OPF techniques have been playing key roles in many aspects of electricity markets. The Primal-Dual Interior Point Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming are applied to solve various optimization problems of congestion management proposed in the thesis. A coordinated real-time optimal dispatch method for unbundled electricity markets is proposed for system balancing and congestion management. With this method, almost all the possible resources in different electricity markets, including operating reserves and bilateral transactions, can be used to eliminate the real-time congestion according to their bids into the balancing market. Spot pricing theory is applied to real-time congestion pricing. Under the same framework, a Lagrangian Relaxation based region decomposition OPF algorithm is presented to deal with the problems of real-time active power congestion management across multiple regions. The inter/intra-regional congestion can be relieved without exchanging any information between regional ISOs but the Lagrangian Multipliers. In day-ahead spot market, a new optimal dispatch method is proposed for congestion and price risk management, particularly for bilateral transaction curtailment. Individual revenue adequacy constraints, which include payments from financial instruments, are involved in the original dispatch problem. An iterative procedure is applied to solve this special optimization problem with both primal and dual variables involved in its constraints. An optimal Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) auction model is presented as an approach to the long-term congestion management. Two types of series F ACTS devices are incorporated into this auction problem using the Power Injection Model to maximize the auction revenue. Some new treatment has been done on TCSC's operating limits to keep the auction problem linear

Cutting the Climate-Development Gordian Knot - Economic options in a politically constrained world

Combating climate change cannot but be a cooperative venture amongst nations. Together with the problem posed by the withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol, the key challenge for winning the battle is the involvement of developing countries in efforts to alter their GHGs emissions trends. This involvement is necessary technically but also politically to bring the largest emitter of the planet back on the battle field. In the first section we draw on history to outline the intellectual underpinning of North/South divide around climate affairs. In the second section we show the economic basis for a leverage effect between development and climate policies. The third section ventures to propose some guidance to develop a viable climate regime strong enough to support an ambitious effort to decarbonize economies and we show that the Kyoto framework, once re-interpreted and amended is not so far from this working drawing.climate policy; development

Large Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation

Comparisons of resource assessments suggest resource constraints are not an obstacle to the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies. Economic analysis identifies barriers to the adoption of renewable energy sources resulting from market structure, competition in an uneven playing field and various non-market place barriers. However, even if these barriers are removed, the problem of ‘technology lock-out’ remains. The key policy response is strategic deployment coupled with increased R&D support to accelerate the pace of improvement through market experience. The paper suggests significant contributions from various technologies, but does not assess their optimal or maximal market share

A DERIVATIVE SECURITY APPROACH TO SETTING CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PREMIUMS

The nature of indemnities and reliance on futures price averaging during two distinct time intervals throughout the production year imply Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) insurance behaves like an exotic put option. Treating this type of insurance as a derivative security, an analytical model is developed and an algorithm for solving the model to place a lower bound on insurance premiums is presented. Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account the path-dependent nature of an Asian-type option, is then used to determine lower-bound estimates for insurance premiums on corn gross revenue under specified price and yield distributions.Risk and Uncertainty,

Financial Innovations in International Financial Markets

The central theme of this paper is that financial innovation has become a major force effecting the United States and other developed economies. The common features of the process include product innovation, securitization, liberalization of domestic financial market practices, globalization of markets, and increased competition among financial institutions. The paper offers a review of the product and process changes that have occurred in international financial markets, an analysis of the factors leading to these changes, and an examination of the implications for both financial market participants and macroeconomic policy makers.

Large Scale Deployment of Renewables for Electricity Generation

Comparisons of resource assessments suggest resource constraints are not an obstacle to the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies. Economic analysis identifies barriers to the adoption of renewable energy sources resulting from market structure, competition in an uneven playing field and various non-market place barriers. However, even if these barriers are removed, the problem of ‘technology lock-out’ remains. The key policy response is strategic deployment coupled with increased R&D support to accelerate the pace of improvement through market experience. The paper suggests significant contributions from various technologies, but does not assess their optimal or maximal market share.technology policy, renewable energy, learning externalities, market structure

Aspects of Irish Energy Policy. ESRI Policy Series No. 57. September 2005

The challenges facing those responsible for energy policy in Ireland are considerable, spanning a wide range of different areas and a number of difficult economic and organisational problems. This paper considers some of the key energy policy issues facing Ireland over the next decade suggesting how best they might be resolved by policy initiatives. We draw on a range of recent research in The Economic and Social Research Institute and elsewhere that has informed our understanding of how some of these knotty problems in the area of energy policy might best be addressed