Modeling interbank relations during the international financial crisis

This paper examines the effects of the current financial crisis on the correlations of four international banking stocks. We find that in the beginning of the crisis banks generally show a transition to a higher correlation followed by a dramatic decline towards the end of 2008. These findings are consistent with both traditional contagion theory and the more recent network theory of contagion.Financial Crises, Contagion, Interbank Markets

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Central America? An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles, Credit Market Imperfections and the Exchange Rate

In this paper, we contrast two different views in the debate on official dollarization. The Mundell (1961) framework of optimal currency areas and a model on boom-bust cycles, by Schneider and Tornell (2004), who take account of credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income countries. We highlight that the role of the exchange rate is strikingly different in the two models. While in the Mundell framework the exchange rate is expected to smooth the business cycle, the other model predicts that the exchange rate plays an amplifying role. We empirically evaluate both models for eight highly dollarized Central American economies, and find that the main benefit of official dollarization derives from avoiding a mismatch between foreign currency liabilities and domestic revenues, as well as the boom-bust episodes that are likely to follow from it. Using a new method of Cubadda (1999, 2007), we furthermore test for cyclical comovement and reject the hypothesis that the countries form an optimal currency area with the United States according to the Mundell definition.dollarization, real exchange rate, business cycle comovement, serial correlation, common feature, boom-bust cycles, credit market imperfections, Central America

Analyzing Systemic Risk with Financial Networks An Application During a Financial Crash

A financial network model, where the coded identity of the counterparties of every trade is known, is applied to both stable and crisis periods in a large and liquid overnight repo market in an emerging market economy. We have analyzed the financial crisis by using various network investigation tools such as links, interconnectivity, and reciprocity. In addition, we proposed a centrality measure to monitor and detect the ‘systemically important financial institution’ in the financial system. We have shown that our measure gives strong signals much before the crisis.systemic risk, financial regulation, financial crisis, BASEL III, systemically important financial institution, Turkey, IMF

The Impact of Banking Crises on Money Demand and Price Stability

This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975-98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. However, the results on price stability are mixed; for three out of the seven countries, there appears to be evidence of instability. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk

We explore the structure and dynamics of interbank exposures in Brazil using a unique data set of all mutual exposures of financial institutions in Brazil, as well as their capital reserves, at various periods in 2007 and 2008. We show that the network of exposures can be adequately modeled as a directed scale-free (weighted) graph with heavy-tailed degree and weight distributions. We also explore the relationship between connectivity of a financial institution and its capital buffer. Finally, we use the network structure to explore the extent of systemic risk generated in the system by the individual institutions.