3,173 research outputs found

    The analog data assimilation

    Get PDF
    In light of growing interest in data-driven methods for oceanic, atmospheric, and climate sciences, this work focuses on the field of data assimilation and presents the analog data assimilation (AnDA). The proposed framework produces a reconstruction of the system dynamics in a fully data-driven manner where no explicit knowledge of the dynamical model is required. Instead, a representative catalog of trajectories of the system is assumed to be available. Based on this catalog, the analog data assimilation combines the nonparametric sampling of the dynamics using analog forecasting methods with ensemble-based assimilation techniques. This study explores different analog forecasting strategies and derives both ensemble Kalman and particle filtering versions of the proposed analog data assimilation approach. Numerical experiments are examined for two chaotic dynamical systems: the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems. The performance of the analog data assimilation is discussed with respect to classical model-driven assimilation. A Matlab toolbox and Python library of the AnDA are provided to help further research building upon the present findings.Fil: Lguensat, Redouane. Université Bretagne Loire; FranciaFil: Tandeo, Pierre. Université Bretagne Loire; FranciaFil: Ailliot, Pierre. University of Western Brittany. Laboratoire de Mathématiques de Bretagne Atlantique; FranciaFil: Pulido, Manuel Arturo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Modelado e Innovación Tecnológica. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Naturales y Agrimensura. Instituto de Modelado e Innovación Tecnológica; ArgentinaFil: Fablet, Ronan. Université Bretagne Loire; Franci

    Estimation and uncertainty of reversible Markov models

    Get PDF
    Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and Master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model relies heavily on the reversibility property. The estimation of a reversible transition matrix from simulation data is therefore crucial to the successful application of the previously developed theory. In this work we discuss methods for the maximum likelihood estimation of transition matrices from finite simulation data and present a new algorithm for the estimation if reversibility with respect to a given stationary vector is desired. We also develop new methods for the Bayesian posterior inference of reversible transition matrices with and without given stationary vector taking into account the need for a suitable prior distribution preserving the meta- stable features of the observed process during posterior inference. All algorithms here are implemented in the PyEMMA software - http://pyemma.org - as of version 2.0

    The SWELLS survey. IV. Precision measurements of the stellar and dark matter distributions in a spiral lens galaxy

    Get PDF
    We construct a fully self-consistent mass model for the lens galaxy J2141 at z=0.14, and use it to improve on previous studies by modelling its gravitational lensing effect, gas rotation curve and stellar kinematics simultaneously. We adopt a very flexible axisymmetric mass model constituted by a generalized NFW dark matter halo and a stellar mass distribution obtained by deprojecting the MGE fit to the high-resolution K'-band LGSAO imaging data of the galaxy, with the (spatially constant) M/L ratio as a free parameter. We model the stellar kinematics by solving the anisotropic Jeans equations. We find that the inner logarithmic slope of the dark halo is weakly constrained (gamma = 0.82^{+0.65}_{-0.54}), and consistent with an unmodified NFW profile. We infer the galaxy to have (i) a dark matter fraction within 2.2 disk radii of 0.28^{+0.15}_{-0.10}, independent of the galaxy stellar population, implying a maximal disk for J2141; (ii) an apparently uncontracted dark matter halo, with concentration c_{-2} = 7.7_{-2.5}^{+4.2} and virial velocity v_{vir} = 242_{-39}^{+44} km/s, consistent with LCDM predictions; (iii) a slightly oblate halo (q_h = 0.75^{+0.27}_{-0.16}), consistent with predictions from baryon-affected models. Comparing the stellar mass inferred from the combined analysis (log_{10} Mstar/Msun = 11.12_{-0.09}^{+0.05}) with that inferred from SPS modelling of the galaxies colours, and accounting for a cold gas fraction of 20+/-10%, we determine a preference for a Chabrier IMF over Salpeter IMF by a Bayes factor of 5.7 (substantial evidence). We infer a value beta_{z} = 1 - sigma^2_{z}/sigma^2_{R} = 0.43_{-0.11}^{+0.08} for the orbital anisotropy parameter in the meridional plane, in agreement with most studies of local disk galaxies, and ruling out at 99% CL that the dynamics of this system can be described by a two-integral distribution function. [Abridged]Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 17 pages, 9 figure

    Turbulent Disks are Never Stable: Fragmentation and Turbulence-Promoted Planet Formation

    Get PDF
    A fundamental assumption in our understanding of disks is that when the Toomre Q>>1, the disk is stable against fragmentation into self-gravitating objects (and so cannot form planets via direct collapse). But if disks are turbulent, this neglects a spectrum of stochastic density fluctuations that can produce rare, high-density mass concentrations. Here, we use a recently-developed analytic framework to predict the statistics of these fluctuations, i.e. the rate of fragmentation and mass spectrum of fragments formed in a turbulent Keplerian disk. Turbulent disks are never completely stable: we calculate the (always finite) probability of forming self-gravitating structures via stochastic turbulent density fluctuations in such disks. Modest sub-sonic turbulence above Mach number ~0.1 can produce a few stochastic fragmentation or 'direct collapse' events over ~Myr timescales, even if Q>>1 and cooling is slow (t_cool>>t_orbit). In trans-sonic turbulence this extends to Q~100. We derive the true Q-criterion needed to suppress such events, which scales exponentially with Mach number. We specify to turbulence driven by MRI, convection, or spiral waves, and derive equivalent criteria in terms of Q and the cooling time. Cooling times >~50*t_dyn may be required to completely suppress fragmentation. These gravoturbulent events produce mass spectra peaked near ~M_disk*(Q*M_disk/M_star)^2 (rocky-to-giant planet masses, increasing with distance from the star). We apply this to protoplanetary disk models and show that even minimum mass solar nebulae could experience stochastic collapse events, provided a source of turbulence.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures (+appendix), accepted to ApJ (added clarifications and discussion to match accepted version

    Galaxy Masses

    Get PDF
    Galaxy masses play a fundamental role in our understanding of structure formation models. This review addresses the variety and reliability of mass estimators that pertain to stars, gas, and dark matter. The different sections on masses from stellar populations, dynamical masses of gas-rich and gas-poor galaxies, with some attention paid to our Milky Way, and masses from weak and strong lensing methods, all provide review material on galaxy masses in a self-consistent manner.Comment: 145 pages, 28 figures, to appear in Reviews of Modern Physics. Figure 22 is missing here, and Figs. 15, 26-28 are at low resolution. This version has a slightly different title and some typos fixed in Chapter 5. For the full review with figures, please consult: http://www.astro.queensu.ca/~courteau/GalaxyMasses_28apr2014.pd

    Parameterized Model Order Reduction with Applications to Thermal Systems

    Get PDF
    corecore