LIMEtree: Interactively Customisable Explanations Based on Local Surrogate Multi-output Regression Trees

Systems based on artificial intelligence and machine learning models should be transparent, in the sense of being capable of explaining their decisions to gain humans' approval and trust. While there are a number of explainability techniques that can be used to this end, many of them are only capable of outputting a single one-size-fits-all explanation that simply cannot address all of the explainees' diverse needs. In this work we introduce a model-agnostic and post-hoc local explainability technique for black-box predictions called LIMEtree, which employs surrogate multi-output regression trees. We validate our algorithm on a deep neural network trained for object detection in images and compare it against Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Our method comes with local fidelity guarantees and can produce a range of diverse explanation types, including contrastive and counterfactual explanations praised in the literature. Some of these explanations can be interactively personalised to create bespoke, meaningful and actionable insights into the model's behaviour. While other methods may give an illusion of customisability by wrapping, otherwise static, explanations in an interactive interface, our explanations are truly interactive, in the sense of allowing the user to "interrogate" a black-box model. LIMEtree can therefore produce consistent explanations on which an interactive exploratory process can be built

Text–to–Video: Image Semantics and NLP

When aiming at automatically translating an arbitrary text into a visual story, the main challenge consists in finding a semantically close visual representation whereby the displayed meaning should remain the same as in the given text. Besides, the appearance of an image itself largely influences how its meaningful information is transported towards an observer. This thesis now demonstrates that investigating in both, image semantics as well as the semantic relatedness between visual and textual sources enables us to tackle the challenging semantic gap and to find a semantically close translation from natural language to a corresponding visual representation. Within the last years, social networking became of high interest leading to an enormous and still increasing amount of online available data. Photo sharing sites like Flickr allow users to associate textual information with their uploaded imagery. Thus, this thesis exploits this huge knowledge source of user generated data providing initial links between images and words, and other meaningful data. In order to approach visual semantics, this work presents various methods to analyze the visual structure as well as the appearance of images in terms of meaningful similarities, aesthetic appeal, and emotional effect towards an observer. In detail, our GPU-based approach efficiently finds visual similarities between images in large datasets across visual domains and identifies various meanings for ambiguous words exploring similarity in online search results. Further, we investigate in the highly subjective aesthetic appeal of images and make use of deep learning to directly learn aesthetic rankings from a broad diversity of user reactions in social online behavior. To gain even deeper insights into the influence of visual appearance towards an observer, we explore how simple image processing is capable of actually changing the emotional perception and derive a simple but effective image filter. To identify meaningful connections between written text and visual representations, we employ methods from Natural Language Processing (NLP). Extensive textual processing allows us to create semantically relevant illustrations for simple text elements as well as complete storylines. More precisely, we present an approach that resolves dependencies in textual descriptions to arrange 3D models correctly. Further, we develop a method that finds semantically relevant illustrations to texts of different types based on a novel hierarchical querying algorithm. Finally, we present an optimization based framework that is capable of not only generating semantically relevant but also visually coherent picture stories in different styles.Bei der automatischen Umwandlung eines beliebigen Textes in eine visuelle Geschichte, besteht die größte Herausforderung darin eine semantisch passende visuelle Darstellung zu finden. Dabei sollte die Bedeutung der Darstellung dem vorgegebenen Text entsprechen. Darüber hinaus hat die Erscheinung eines Bildes einen großen Einfluß darauf, wie seine bedeutungsvollen Inhalte auf einen Betrachter übertragen werden. Diese Dissertation zeigt, dass die Erforschung sowohl der Bildsemantik als auch der semantischen Verbindung zwischen visuellen und textuellen Quellen es ermöglicht, die anspruchsvolle semantische Lücke zu schließen und eine semantisch nahe Übersetzung von natürlicher Sprache in eine entsprechend sinngemäße visuelle Darstellung zu finden. Des Weiteren gewann die soziale Vernetzung in den letzten Jahren zunehmend an Bedeutung, was zu einer enormen und immer noch wachsenden Menge an online verfügbaren Daten geführt hat. Foto-Sharing-Websites wie Flickr ermöglichen es Benutzern, Textinformationen mit ihren hochgeladenen Bildern zu verknüpfen. Die vorliegende Arbeit nutzt die enorme Wissensquelle von benutzergenerierten Daten welche erste Verbindungen zwischen Bildern und Wörtern sowie anderen aussagekräftigen Daten zur Verfügung stellt. Zur Erforschung der visuellen Semantik stellt diese Arbeit unterschiedliche Methoden vor, um die visuelle Struktur sowie die Wirkung von Bildern in Bezug auf bedeutungsvolle Ähnlichkeiten, ästhetische Erscheinung und emotionalem Einfluss auf einen Beobachter zu analysieren. Genauer gesagt, findet unser GPU-basierter Ansatz effizient visuelle Ähnlichkeiten zwischen Bildern in großen Datenmengen quer über visuelle Domänen hinweg und identifiziert verschiedene Bedeutungen für mehrdeutige Wörter durch die Erforschung von Ähnlichkeiten in Online-Suchergebnissen. Des Weiteren wird die höchst subjektive ästhetische Anziehungskraft von Bildern untersucht und "deep learning" genutzt, um direkt ästhetische Einordnungen aus einer breiten Vielfalt von Benutzerreaktionen im sozialen Online-Verhalten zu lernen. Um noch tiefere Erkenntnisse über den Einfluss des visuellen Erscheinungsbildes auf einen Betrachter zu gewinnen, wird erforscht, wie alleinig einfache Bildverarbeitung in der Lage ist, tatsächlich die emotionale Wahrnehmung zu verändern und ein einfacher aber wirkungsvoller Bildfilter davon abgeleitet werden kann. Um bedeutungserhaltende Verbindungen zwischen geschriebenem Text und visueller Darstellung zu ermitteln, werden Methoden des "Natural Language Processing (NLP)" verwendet, die der Verarbeitung natürlicher Sprache dienen. Der Einsatz umfangreicher Textverarbeitung ermöglicht es, semantisch relevante Illustrationen für einfache Textteile sowie für komplette Handlungsstränge zu erzeugen. Im Detail wird ein Ansatz vorgestellt, der Abhängigkeiten in Textbeschreibungen auflöst, um 3D-Modelle korrekt anzuordnen. Des Weiteren wird eine Methode entwickelt die, basierend auf einem neuen hierarchischen Such-Anfrage Algorithmus, semantisch relevante Illustrationen zu Texten verschiedener Art findet. Schließlich wird ein optimierungsbasiertes Framework vorgestellt, das nicht nur semantisch relevante, sondern auch visuell kohärente Bildgeschichten in verschiedenen Bildstilen erzeugen kann

Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters

Forecast combination has been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecast accuracy. In recent years, the idea of using time series features to construct forecast combination model has flourished in the forecasting area. Although this idea has been proved to be beneficial in several forecast competitions such as the M3 and M4 competitions, it may not be practical in many situations. For example, the task of selecting appropriate features to build forecasting models can be a big challenge for many researchers. Even if there is one acceptable way to define the features, existing features are estimated based on the historical patterns, which are doomed to change in the future, or infeasible in the case of limited historical data. In this work, we suggest a change of focus from the historical data to the produced forecasts to extract features. We calculate the diversity of a pool of models based on the corresponding forecasts as a decisive feature and use meta-learning to construct diversity-based forecast combination models. A rich set of time series are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Experimental results show that our diversity-based forecast combination framework not only simplifies the modelling process but also achieves superior forecasting performance.Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures, 4 table

In silico transitions to multicellularity

The emergence of multicellularity and developmental programs are among the major problems of evolutionary biology. Traditionally, research in this area has been based on the combination of data analysis and experimental work on one hand and theoretical approximations on the other. A third possibility is provided by computer simulation models, which allow to both simulate reality and explore alternative possibilities. These in silico models offer a powerful window to the possible and the actual by means of modeling how virtual cells and groups of cells can evolve complex interactions beyond a set of isolated entities. Here we present several examples of such models, each one illustrating the potential for artificial modeling of the transition to multicellularity.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures. Book chapter of Evolutionary transitions to multicellular life (Springer

Brainstem circuits involved in skilled forelimb movements

Movement is the main output of the nervous system as well as the fundamental form of interaction animals have with their environment. Due to its function and scope, movement has to be characterized by both stability and flexibility. Such apparently conflicting attributes are reflected in the complex organization of the motor system, composed of a vast network of widely distributed circuits interacting with each other to generate an appropriate motor output. Different neuronal structures, located throughout the brain, are responsible for producing a broad spectrum of actions, ranging from simple locomotion to complex goal directed movements such as reaching for food or playing a musical instrument. The brainstem is one of such structures, holding considerable importance in the generation of the motor output, but also largely unexplored, due to its less-than-accessible anatomic location, functional intricacies and the lack of appropriate techniques to investigate its complexity. Despite recent advances, a deeper understanding of the role of brainstem neuronal circuits in skilled movements is still missing. In this dissertation, we investigated the involvement of the lateral rostral medulla (LatRM) in the construction of skilled forelimb behaviors. The focus of my work was centered on elucidating the anatomical and functional relationships between LatRM and the caudal brainstem, and specifically on the interactions with the medullary reticular formation, considering both its ventral (MdV) and dorsal subdivisions (MdD). In summary, we reveal the existence of anatomically segregated subpopulations of neurons in the lower brainstem which encode different aspects of skilled forelimb movements. Moreover, we show that LatRM neurons are necessary for the correct execution of skilled motor programs and their activation produces complex coordinated actions. All this evidence suggests that LatRM may be a key orchestrator for skilled movements by functioning as integration center for upstream signals as well as coordinator by selecting the appropriate effectors in the lower medulla and the spinal cord