Analyzing loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in a freight transport stated choice experiment

Choice behaviour might be determined by asymmetric preferences whether the consumers are faced with gains or losses. This paper investigates loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity, and analyzes their implications on willingness to pay and willingness to accept measures in a reference pivoted choice experiment in a freight transport framework. The results suggest a significant model fit improvement when preferences are treated as asymmetric, proving both loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. The implications on willingness to pay and willingness to accept indicators are particular relevant showing a remarkable difference between symmetric and asymmetric model specifications. Not accounting for loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity, when present, produces misleading results and might affect significantly the policy decisions.freight transport, choice experiments, willingness to pay, preference asymmetry

Evaluation of the benefits of transnational transportation projects

In this paper an analytical framework has been developed to evaluate the primary beneficiaries of cargo traffic generated by transnational transport projects. In the transportation economics literature, the economic impact of infrastructure projects on cargo traffic has not been developed as fully as for passenger traffic. In much of the previous literature it is often assumed that consumers of the traded goods would receive the full benefits from the reduction in logistics and transportation costs. This paper has shown that whether the goods are traded internationally or regionally is a key factor in the allocation of the economic benefits arising from the reduction in the cost of cargo transportation. The analytical framework developed in the paper is applied to the evaluation of the impacts of the proposed Buenos Aires-Colonia binational bridge project.Argentina, Uruguay, cargo traffic, transnational, transportation benefits

Derived Demand for Grain Freight Transportation, Rail-Truck Competition, and Mode Choice and Allocative Efficiency

The demand for grain freight transportation is a derived demand; consequently changes in the grain supply chain in production and handling, and those in the transportation domain will affect the demand for grain transportation. The U.S. transportation industry (e.g. railroad and trucking), and the grain supply chain in general have witnessed structural changes over the years that have potential long-run implications for demand, intermodal competition, and grain shippers mode choices both nationally and regionally. Deregulation of the railroad and trucking industries initiated innovations (e.g. shuttle trains) that have revolutionized the way grain is marketed. These and other related trends in agriculture including bioenergy suggest a dynamic environment surrounding grain transportation and the need to revisit agricultural transportation demand and evaluate changes over time. A majority of freight demand studies are based on aggregate data (e.g. regional) due to lack of disaggregate data. Aggregation of shippers over large geographic regions leads to loss of information with potential erroneous elasticity estimates. This study develops a method to estimate transportation rates at the grain elevator level to estimate a shipper link specific cost function for barley, corn, durum, hard red spring wheat, and soybeans shippers. The aim of this study is to assess and characterize the nature of rail-truck competition for the transportation of five commodities over distance and time as well as to assess whether North Dakota grain shippers’ mode choices reflect an allocatively efficient mix assuming the choice of mode is based on shipping rates. Our findings indicate that in general, rail dominates most of the grain traffic, however, the degree of dominance is variable by commodity. Additional findings suggest that grain shippers utilize more rail than they would if they chose modes based on rates. This may suggest unmeasured service quality advantages of rail in comparison to truck.Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI)Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI

Estimation of indirect cost and evaluation of protective measures for infrastructure vulnerability: A case study on the transalpine transport corridor

Infrastructure vulnerability is a topic of rising interest in the scientific literature for both the general increase of unexpected events and the strategic importance of certain links. Protective investments are extremely costly and risks are distributed in space and time which poses important decision problems to the public sector decision makers. In an economic prospective, the evaluation of infrastructure vulnerability is oriented on the estimation of direct and indirect costs of hazards. Although the estimation of direct costs is straightforward, the evaluation of indirect cost involves factors non-directly observable making the approximation a difficult issue. This paper provides an estimate of the indirect costs caused by a two weeks closure of the north-south Gotthard road corridor, one of the most important infrastructure links in Europe, and implements a cost-benefit analysis tool that allows the evaluation of measures ensuring a full protection along the corridor. The identification of the indirect cost relies on the generalized cost estimation, which parameters come from two stated preference experiments, the first based on actual condition whereas the second assumes a road closure. The procedure outlined in this paper proposes a methodology aimed to identify and quantify the economic vulnerability associated with a road transport infrastructure and, to evaluate the economic and social efficiency of a vulnerability reduction by the consideration of protective measures.infrastructure vulnerability, choice experiment, cost-benefit analysis, freight transport

VMÖ – A new strategic transport model for Austria

For the preparation of a new traffic forecast for several time horizons up to the year 2040 and beyond (Verkehrsprognose Österreich, VPÖ 2040+) an up-to-date transport model is necessary. Currently this new national transport model Austria (Verkehrsmodell Österreich, VMÖ) is developed. The passenger model will be disaggregated tour-based model with 5 basic steps and some extensions for special applications, like for instance tourist traffic. The number of zones will be approximately 6000. In the model a special focus is on incorporating recent trends in mode choice like “park and ride” and other multimodal chains. The freight part of the model will be an Aggregated - Disaggregated - Aggregated (ADA) model with three steps: (1) the results of an input-output-model are transformed into firm-to-firm flows, (2) the choice of shipment size and transport chain is modelled and (3) the OD relations are aggregated for the individual modes and assignment to the networks. For individual transport with passenger cars and road freight, a quasi-dynamic road transport assignment will be developed. Public transport assignment is based on timetables. For the forecasts of travel demand for future years a pivot-point approach (with the changes) on the base matrices will be applied