Nonlinear dynamic process monitoring using kernel methods

The application of kernel methods in process monitoring is well established. How- ever, there is need to extend existing techniques using novel implementation strate- gies in order to improve process monitoring performance. For example, process monitoring using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) have been reported. Nevertheless, the e ect of combining kernel density estimation (KDE)-based control limits with KPCA for nonlinear process monitoring has not been adequately investi- gated and documented. Therefore, process monitoring using KPCA and KDE-based control limits is carried out in this work. A new KPCA-KDE fault identi cation technique is also proposed. Furthermore, most process systems are complex and data collected from them have more than one characteristic. Therefore, three techniques are developed in this work to capture more than one process behaviour. These include the linear latent variable-CVA (LLV-CVA), kernel CVA using QR decomposition (KCVA-QRD) and kernel latent variable-CVA (KLV-CVA). LLV-CVA captures both linear and dynamic relations in the process variables. On the other hand, KCVA-QRD and KLV-CVA account for both nonlinearity and pro- cess dynamics. The CVA with kernel density estimation (CVA-KDE) technique reported does not address the nonlinear problem directly while the regular kernel CVA approach require regularisation of the constructed kernel data to avoid com- putational instability. However, this compromises process monitoring performance. The results of the work showed that KPCA-KDE is more robust and detected faults higher and earlier than the KPCA technique based on Gaussian assumption of pro- cess data. The nonlinear dynamic methods proposed also performed better than the afore-mentioned existing techniques without employing the ridge-type regulari- sation

마르코프 랜덤 필드 학습 및 추론과 그래프 라쏘를 활용한 공정 이상 감지 및 진단 방법론

학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 화학생물공학부, 2019. 2. 이원보.Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) is an essential part of safe plant operation. Fault detection refers to the process of detecting the occurrence of a fault quickly and accurately, and representative methods include the use of principal component analysis (PCA), and autoencoders (AE). Fault diagnosis is the process of isolating the root cause node of the fault, then determining the fault propagation path to identify the characteristic of the fault. Among the various methods, data-driven methods are the most widely-used, due to their applicability and good performance compared to analytical and knowledge-based methods. Although many studies have been conducted regarding FDD, no methodology for conducting every step of FDD exists, where the fault is effectively detected and diagnosed. Moreover, existing methods have limited applicability and show limited performance. Previous fault detection methods show loss of variable characteristics in dimensionality reduction methods and have large computational loads, leading to poor performance for complex faults. Likewise, preceding fault diagnosis methods show inaccurate fault isolation results, and biased fault propagation path analysis as a consequence of implementing knowledge-based characteristics for construction of digraphs of process variable relationships. Thus a comprehensive methodology for FDD which shows good performance for complex faults and variable relationships, is required. In this study, an efficient and effective comprehensive FDD methodology based on Markov random fields (MRF) modelling is proposed. MRFs provide an effective means for modelling complex variable relationships, and allows efficient computation of marginal probability of the process variables, leading to good performance regarding FDD. First, a fault detection framework for process variables, integrating the MRF modelling and structure learning with iterative graphical lasso is proposed. Graphical lasso is an algorithm for learning the structure of MRFs, and is applicable to large variable sets since it approximates the MRF structure by assuming the relationships between variables to be Gaussian. By iteratively applying the graphical lasso to monitored variables, the variable set is subdivided into smaller groups, and consequently the computational cost of MRF inference is mitigated allowing efficient fault detection. After variable groups are obtained through iterative graphical lasso, they are subject to the MRF monitoring framework that is proposed in this work. The framework obtains the monitoring statistics by calculating the probability density of the variable groups through kernel density estimation, and the monitoring limits are obtained separately for each group by using a false alarm rate of 5%. Second, a fault isolation and propagation path analysis methodology is proposed, where the conditional marginal probability of each variable is computed via inference, then is used to calculate the conditional contribution of individual variables during the occurrence of a fault. Using the kernel belief propagation (KBP) algorithm, which is an algorithm for learning and inferencing MRFs comprising continuous variables, the parameters of MRF are trained using normal process data, then the individual conditional contribution of each variable is calculated for every sample of the fault process data. By analyzing the magnitude and reaction speed of the conditional contribution of individual variables, the root fault node can be isolated and the fault propagation path can be determined effectively. Finally, the proposed methodology is verified by applying it to the well-known Tennessee Eastman process (TEP) model. Since the TEP has been used as a benchmark process over the past years for verifying various FDD methods, it serves the purpose of performance comparison. Also, since it consists of multiple units and has complex variable relationships such as recycle loops, it is suitable for verifying the performance of the proposed methodology. Application results show that the proposed methodology performs better compared to state-of-the-art FDD algorithms, in terms of both fault detection and diagnosis. Fault detection results showed that all 28 faults designed inside the TEP model were detected with a fault detection accuracy of over 95%, which is higher than any other previously proposed fault detection method. Also, the method showed good fault isolation and propagation path analysis results, where the root-cause node for every fault was detected correctly, and the characteristics of the initiated faults were identified through fault propagation path analysis.공정 이상의 감지 및 진단 시스템은 안전한 공정 운영에 필수적인 부분이다. 이상 감지는 이상이 발생했을 경우 즉각적으로 이를 정확하게 감지하는 프로세스를 의미하며, 대표적인 방법으로는 주성분 분석 및 오토인코더를 활용한 감지 방법론이 있다. 이상 진단은 결함의 근본 원인이 되는 노드를 격리하고, 이상의 전파 경로를 탐지하여 이상의 특성을 식별하는 프로세스이다. 공정 이상의 감지 및 진단 방법론에는 모델 분석 방법론, 지식 기반 방법론 등의 다양한 방법론이 있지만, 공정에 대한 적용 가능성과 성능 측면에서 가장 유용하다고 알려져 있는 데이터 기반 방법론이 널리 활용되고 있다. 공정 이상의 감지 및 진단에 대한 데이터 기반 방법론은 다방면으로 연구되어 왔지만, 이상 감지 및 진단을 모두 효과적으로 수행할 수 있는 방법론은 소수에 불과하며, 존재하고 있는 방법론들 역시 두 분야 모두에서 좋은 성능을 보여주고 있는 경우는 없다. 이는 기존 방법론들의 적용 가능성이 제한되어 있으며 공정에 적용시 제한된 성능을 보여주기 때문이다. 이상 감지의 경우, 대용량의 데이터를 처리할 때 발생하는 과부하로 인한 감지 능력의 저하, 차원 축소 방법론들을 사용할 시 이에 따른 변수 특성 반영의 부정확성, 그리고 축소된 차원에서의 계산으로 인하여 복합적인 형태의 이상을 감지해 내지 못하는 문제 등이 있다. 이상 진단의 경우 이상의 원인이 되는 노드의 격리 및 이상 전파 경로에 대한 분석이 부정확한 경우가 많은데, 이는 차원 축소로 인하여 공정 변수의 특성이 소실되는 성질이 있고, 방향성 그래프를 활용할 시 공정에 대한 선행 지식을 적용함으로써 편향된 이상 진단 결과가 나타나는 경우들이 발생하기 때문이다. 기존 방법론들에 대한 이러한 한계점들을 고려해 봤을때, 변수 각각의 특성이 소실되지 않도록하여 효과적으로 이상에 대한 감지와 진단을 모두 수행해 낼 수 있으면서도, 계산상의 효율성을 갖춘, 이상 감지 및 진단에 대한 통합된 방법론의 개발이 시급하다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 마르코프 랜덤 필드 모델링과 그래프 라쏘를 기반으로하여, 이상에 대한 감지 및 진단을 모두 수행해 낼 수 있는 통합적인 공정 모니터링 방법론을 제안한다. 마르코프 랜덤 필드는 비선형적이고 비정규적인 변수 관계를 효과적으로 모델링할 수 있게 해주고, 이상 발생 상황에서의 모니터링 통계값 계산시에 각 변수의 특성을 반영하여 확률 계산을 해 낼 수 있기 때문에 효과적인 이상 감지 및 진단 수단이 된다. 기본적으로 마르코프 랜덤 필드는 확률값 계산시의 부하가 크지만, 본 연구에서는 그래프 라쏘 방법론을 추가적으로 함께 활용하여 계산 상의 부하를 줄이고 효율적으로 이상 감지 및 진단을 해낼 수 있도록 하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 내용들은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 공정 변수를 마르코프 랜덤 필드 형태로 모델링하고, 그래프 라쏘를 활용해 마르코프 랜덤 필드의 구조를 얻을 수 있는 방법론을 제시하였다. 그래프 라쏘는 마르코프 랜덤 필드의 구조를 파악하기 위한 방법론인데, 변수 간의 관계를 가우스 함수의 형태로 가정하기 때문에 다변수 시스템에서도 효율적으로 그래프 구조를 파악할 수 있도록 해준다. 본 연구에서는 반복적 그래프 라쏘를 제안하여 모든 공정 변수들이 상관관계가 높은 변수 집단으로 묶일 수 있도록 하였다. 이를 활용하면 전체 공정 변수 집단을 다수의 소집단으로 분류하고 각각에 대한 그래프 구조를 파악할 수 있게 되는데, 크게 두 가지의 효과를 얻을 수 있다. 우선적으로 마르코프 랜덤 필드 확률 계산의 대상이 되는 변수의 개수를 줄여줌으로써 계산 부하를 줄이고 효율적인 이상 감지가 이루어질 수 있도록 한다. 또한 상관관계가 높은 집단끼리 묶여서 모델링 된 그래프를 활용하여 이상의 진단 과정에서 공정 변수 간의 관계 파악 및 전파 경로 분석을 용이하도록 해준다. 두 번째로, 마르코프 랜덤 필드의 확률 추론을 기반으로 하여 효과적으로 이상 감지가 이루어질 수 있도록 하는 방법론을 제안하였다. 반복적 그래프 라쏘를 통해 얻어진 다수의 변수 소집단에 대하여 각각 확률 추론을 적용하여 이상 감지를 진행하게 되는데, 제안된 방법론에서는 커널 밀도 추정 방법론을 활용하였다. 정상 데이터를 활용하여 각 변수들에 대한 커널 밀도의 대역폭을 학습하고, 이상 데이터가 발생할 시 이를 활용한 커널 밀도 추정법을 사용하여 이상감시 통계치를 계산하게 된다. 이때 허위 진단율을 5%로 가정하여 각각의 소집단에 대한 공정 감지 기준선을 설정하였고, 이상감시 통계치가 공정 감시 기준선보다 낮게 될 경우 이상이 감지된다. 세 번째로, 이상 발생 시 원인이 되는 변수의 격리 및 이상 전파 경로 분석을 효과적으로 수행할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하였다. 제시된 방법론에서는 마르코프 랜덤 필드의 확률 추론 과정을 활용하여 이상 발생 시 각 변수의 조건부 한계 확률을 계산하고, 이를 활용해 새롭게 정의된 조건부 기여도 값을 계산하여, 이상에 대한 각 변수의 기여도를 파악할 수 있도록 한다. 이 과정에서는 커널 신뢰도 전파 방법론이 사용되는데, 이는 연속 변수를 가지는 마르코프 랜덤 필드에 대하여 확률 추론을 수행할 수 있도록 하는 방법론이다. 커널 신뢰도 전파법을 사용하면 정상 상태의 공정 데이터를 활용하여 마르코프 랜덤 필드를 구성하는 파라미터 값들을 학습하고, 이상 발생시 이상 데이터에 대하여 각 변수의 조건부 기여도 값을 계산할 수 있게 된다. 이 때 계산된 조건부 기여도 값의 크기와, 이상 발생 이후 각 변수의 조건부 기여도 값의 변화 반응 속도를 종합적으로 판단하여, 이상의 원인 변수에 대한 격리와 이상 전파 경로 분석을 효과적으로 수행할 수 있게 된다. 본 연구에서는 제안된 이상 감지 및 진단 방법론의 성능을 검증하기 위하여 테네시 이스트만 공정 모델에 이를 적용하고 결과를 분석하였다. 테네시 이스트만 공정은 수년간 공정 감시 방법론을 검증하기 위한 벤치마크 공정으로 널리 사용되어 왔기 때문에, 제시된 방법론을 이에 적용해 봄으로써 다른 공정 감시 방법론들과의 성능을 비교해 볼 수 있었다. 또한 다수의 단위 공정을 포함하고 있고, 순환적인 변수 관계 역시 포함하고 있기 때문에 제시된 방법론의 성능을 시험해 보기에 적합했다. 테네시 이스트만 공정 내부에는 28개 종류의 이상이 프로그램 상에 내장되어 있는데, 제시된 공정 감지 방법론을 적용한 결과 모든 이상에 대하여 96% 이상의 높은 이상 감지율을 나타내었다. 이는 기존에 제시된 공정 감시 방법론들에 비하여 월등히 높은 수치였다. 또한 이상 진단 성능을 분석해 본 결과, 모든 이상에 대하여 원인이 되는 노드를 효과적으로 파악할 수 있었고, 이상 전파 경로 역시 정확하게 탐지하여 기존 방법론들과는 차별화된 성능을 나타내었다. 제시된 방법론을 테네시 이스트만 공정에 적용해 봄으로써, 본 연구 내용이 공정 이상의 감지 및 진단에 대한 통합적인 방법론 중에서 가장 우수한 성능을 나타내는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.Contents Abstract i Contents iv List of Tables vii List of Figures ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Research Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3 Outline of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 Markov Random Fields Modelling, Graphical Lasso, and Optimal Structure Learning 10 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.2 Markov Random Fields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.3 Graphical Lasso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.4 MRF Modelling & Structure Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.4.1 MRF modelling in process systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.4.2 Structure learning using iterative graphical lasso . . . . . . . 20 2.5 Application of Iterative Graphical Lasso on the TEP . . . . . . . . . . 24 3 Efficient Process Monitoring via the Integrated Use of Markov Random Fields Learning and the Graphical Lasso 31 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.2 MRF Monitoring Integrated with Graphical Lasso . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.2.1 Step 1: Iterative graphical lasso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2.2 Step 2: MRF monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.3 Implementation of Glasso-MRF monitoring to the Tennessee Eastman process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.3.1 Tennessee Eastman process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.3.2 Glasso-MRF monitoring on TEP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.3.3 Fault detection accuracy comparison with other monitoring techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.3.4 Fault detection speed & fault propagation . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4 Process Fault Diagnosis via Markov Random Fields Learning and Inference 101 4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 4.2 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.2.1 Probabilistic graphical models & Markov random fields . . . 106 4.2.2 Kernel belief propagation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 4.3 Fault Diagnosis via MRF Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 4.3.1 MRF structure learning via graphical lasso . . . . . . . . . . 116 4.3.2 Kernel belief propagation - bandwidth selection . . . . . . . . 116 4.3.3 Conditional contribution evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 4.4 Application Results & Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 4.4.1 Two tank process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 4.4.2 Tennessee Eastman process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 5 Concluding Remarks 152 Bibliography 157 Nomenclature 169 Abstract (In Korean) 170Docto

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This open access book assesses the potential of data-driven methods in industrial process monitoring engineering. The process modeling, fault detection, classification, isolation, and reasoning are studied in detail. These methods can be used to improve the safety and reliability of industrial processes. Fault diagnosis, including fault detection and reasoning, has attracted engineers and scientists from various fields such as control, machinery, mathematics, and automation engineering. Combining the diagnosis algorithms and application cases, this book establishes a basic framework for this topic and implements various statistical analysis methods for process monitoring. This book is intended for senior undergraduate and graduate students who are interested in fault diagnosis technology, researchers investigating automation and industrial security, professional practitioners and engineers working on engineering modeling and data processing applications. This is an open access book

Fault Prognosis in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 fault prognosis experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the prognosis phase once they got exposed to real-world data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.Comment: 25 Pages, 13 Figures, 5 Table

매개분포근사를 통한 공정시스템 공학에서의 확률기계학습 접근법

학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 공과대학 화학생물공학부, 2021.8. 이종민.With the rapid development of measurement technology, higher quality and vast amounts of process data become available. Nevertheless, process data are ‘scarce’ in many cases as they are sampled only at certain operating conditions while the dimensionality of the system is large. Furthermore, the process data are inherently stochastic due to the internal characteristics of the system or the measurement noises. For this reason, uncertainty is inevitable in process systems, and estimating it becomes a crucial part of engineering tasks as the prediction errors can lead to misguided decisions and cause severe casualties or economic losses. A popular approach to this is applying probabilistic inference techniques that can model the uncertainty in terms of probability. However, most of the existing probabilistic inference techniques are based on recursive sampling, which makes it difficult to use them for industrial applications that require processing a high-dimensional and massive amount of data. To address such an issue, this thesis proposes probabilistic machine learning approaches based on parametric distribution approximation, which can model the uncertainty of the system and circumvent the computational complexity as well. The proposed approach is applied for three major process engineering tasks: process monitoring, system modeling, and process design. First, a process monitoring framework is proposed that utilizes a probabilistic classifier for fault classification. To enhance the accuracy of the classifier and reduce the computational cost for its training, a feature extraction method called probabilistic manifold learning is developed and applied to the process data ahead of the fault classification. We demonstrate that this manifold approximation process not only reduces the dimensionality of the data but also casts the data into a clustered structure, making the classifier have a low dependency on the type and dimension of the data. By exploiting this property, non-metric information (e.g., fault labels) of the data is effectively incorporated and the diagnosis performance is drastically improved. Second, a probabilistic modeling approach based on Bayesian neural networks is proposed. The parameters of deep neural networks are transformed into Gaussian distributions and trained using variational inference. The redundancy of the parameter is autonomously inferred during the model training, and insignificant parameters are eliminated a posteriori. Through a verification study, we demonstrate that the proposed approach can not only produce high-fidelity models that describe the stochastic behaviors of the system but also produce the optimal model structure. Finally, a novel process design framework is proposed based on reinforcement learning. Unlike the conventional optimization methods that recursively evaluate the objective function to find an optimal value, the proposed method approximates the objective function surface by parametric probabilistic distributions. This allows learning the continuous action policy without introducing any cumbersome discretization process. Moreover, the probabilistic policy gives means for effective control of the exploration and exploitation rates according to the certainty information. We demonstrate that the proposed framework can learn process design heuristics during the solution process and use them to solve similar design problems.계측기술의 발달로 양질의, 그리고 방대한 양의 공정 데이터의 취득이 가능해졌다. 그러나 많은 경우 시스템 차원의 크기에 비해서 일부 운전조건의 공정 데이터만이 취득되기 때문에, 공정 데이터는 ‘희소’하게 된다. 뿐만 아니라, 공정 데이터는 시스템 거동 자체와 더불어 계측에서 발생하는 노이즈로 인한 본질적인 확률적 거동을 보인다. 따라서 시스템의 예측모델은 예측 값에 대한 불확실성을 정량적으로 기술하는 것이 요구되며, 이를 통해 오진을 예방하고 잠재적 인명 피해와 경제적 손실을 방지할 수 있다. 이에 대한 보편적인 접근법은 확률추정기법을 사용하여 이러한 불확실성을 정량화 하는 것이나, 현존하는 추정기법들은 재귀적 샘플링에 의존하는 특성상 고차원이면서도 다량인 공정데이터에 적용하기 어렵다는 근본적인 한계를 가진다. 본 학위논문에서는 매개분포근사에 기반한 확률기계학습을 적용하여 시스템에 내재된 불확실성을 모델링하면서도 동시에 계산 효율적인 접근 방법을 제안하였다. 먼저, 공정의 모니터링에 있어 가우시안 혼합 모델 (Gaussian mixture model)을 분류자로 사용하는 확률적 결함 분류 프레임워크가 제안되었다. 이때 분류자의 학습에서의 계산 복잡도를 줄이기 위하여 데이터를 저차원으로 투영시키는데, 이를 위한 확률적 다양체 학습 (probabilistic manifold learn-ing) 방법이 제안되었다. 제안하는 방법은 데이터의 다양체 (manifold)를 근사하여 데이터 포인트 사이의 쌍별 우도 (pairwise likelihood)를 보존하는 투영법이 사용된다. 이를 통하여 데이터의 종류와 차원에 의존도가 낮은 진단 결과를 얻음과 동시에 데이터 레이블과 같은 비거리적 (non-metric) 정보를 효율적으로 사용하여 결함 진단 능력을 향상시킬 수 있음을 보였다. 둘째로, 베이지안 심층 신경망(Bayesian deep neural networks)을 사용한 공정의 확률적 모델링 방법론이 제시되었다. 신경망의 각 매개변수는 가우스 분포로 치환되며, 변분추론 (variational inference)을 통하여 계산 효율적인 훈련이 진행된다. 훈련이 끝난 후 파라미터의 유효성을 측정하여 불필요한 매개변수를 소거하는 사후 모델 압축 방법이 사용되었다. 반도체 공정에 대한 사례 연구는 제안하는 방법이 공정의 복잡한 거동을 효과적으로 모델링 할 뿐만 아니라 모델의 최적 구조를 도출할 수 있음을 보여준다. 마지막으로, 분포형 심층 신경망을 사용한 강화학습을 기반으로 한 확률적 공정 설계 프레임워크가 제안되었다. 최적치를 찾기 위해 재귀적으로 목적 함수 값을 평가하는 기존의 최적화 방법론과 달리, 목적 함수 곡면 (objective function surface)을 매개화 된 확률분포로 근사하는 접근법이 제시되었다. 이를 기반으로 이산화 (discretization)를 사용하지 않고 연속적 행동 정책을 학습하며, 확실성 (certainty)에 기반한 탐색 (exploration) 및 활용 (exploi-tation) 비율의 제어가 효율적으로 이루어진다. 사례 연구 결과는 공정의 설계에 대한 경험지식 (heuristic)을 학습하고 유사한 설계 문제의 해를 구하는 데 이용할 수 있음을 보여준다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1. Motivation 1 1.2. Outline of the thesis 5 Chapter 2 Backgrounds and preliminaries 9 2.1. Bayesian inference 9 2.2. Monte Carlo 10 2.3. Kullback-Leibler divergence 11 2.4. Variational inference 12 2.5. Riemannian manifold 13 2.6. Finite extended-pseudo-metric space 16 2.7. Reinforcement learning 16 2.8. Directed graph 19 Chapter 3 Process monitoring and fault classification with probabilistic manifold learning 20 3.1. Introduction 20 3.2. Methods 25 3.2.1. Uniform manifold approximation 27 3.2.2. Clusterization 28 3.2.3. Projection 31 3.2.4. Mapping of unknown data query 32 3.2.5. Inference 33 3.3. Verification study 38 3.3.1. Dataset description 38 3.3.2. Experimental setup 40 3.3.3. Process monitoring 43 3.3.4. Projection characteristics 47 3.3.5. Fault diagnosis 50 3.3.6. Computational Aspects 56 Chapter 4 Process system modeling with Bayesian neural networks 59 4.1. Introduction 59 4.2. Methods 63 4.2.1. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 63 4.2.2. Bayesian LSTM (BLSTM) 66 4.3. Verification study 68 4.3.1. System description 68 4.3.2. Estimation of the plasma variables 71 4.3.3. Dataset description 72 4.3.4. Experimental setup 72 4.3.5. Weight regularization during training 78 4.3.6. Modeling complex behaviors of the system 80 4.3.7. Uncertainty quantification and model compression 85 Chapter 5 Process design based on reinforcement learning with distributional actor-critic networks 89 5.1. Introduction 89 5.2. Methods 93 5.2.1. Flowsheet hashing 93 5.2.2. Behavioral cloning 99 5.2.3. Neural Monte Carlo tree search (N-MCTS) 100 5.2.4. Distributional actor-critic networks (DACN) 105 5.2.5. Action masking 110 5.3. Verification study 110 5.3.1. System description 110 5.3.2. Experimental setup 111 5.3.3. Result and discussions 115 Chapter 6 Concluding remarks 120 6.1. Summary of the contributions 120 6.2. Future works 122 Appendix 125 A.1. Proof of Lemma 1 125 A.2. Performance indices for dimension reduction 127 A.3. Model equations for process units 130 Bibliography 132 초 록 149박

Observability and Economic aspects of Fault Detection and Diagnosis Using CUSUM based Multivariate Statistics

This project focuses on the fault observability problem and its impact on plant performance and profitability. The study has been conducted along two main directions. First, a technique has been developed to detect and diagnose faulty situations that could not be observed by previously reported methods. The technique is demonstrated through a subset of faults typically considered for the Tennessee Eastman Process (TEP); which have been found unobservable in all previous studies. The proposed strategy combines the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of the process measurements with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The CUSUM is used to enhance faults under conditions of small fault/signal to noise ratio while the use of PCA facilitates the filtering of noise in the presence of highly correlated data. Multivariate indices, namely, T2 and Q statistics based on the cumulative sums of all available measurements were used for observing these faults. The ARLo.c was proposed as a statistical metric to quantify fault observability. Following the faults detection, the problem of fault isolation is treated. It is shown that for the particular faults considered in the TEP problem, the contribution plots are not able to properly isolate the faults under consideration. This motivates the use of the CUSUM based PCA technique previously used for detection, for unambiguously diagnose the faults. The diagnosis scheme is performed by constructing a family of CUSUM based PCA models corresponding to each fault and then testing whether the statistical thresholds related to a particular faulty model is exceeded or not, hence, indicating occurrence or absence of the corresponding fault. Although the CUSUM based techniques were found successful in detecting abnormal situations as well as isolating the faults, long time intervals were required for both detection and diagnosis. The potential economic impact of these resulting delays motivates the second main objective of this project. More specifically, a methodology to quantify the potential economical loss due to unobserved faults when standard statistical monitoring charts are used is developed. Since most of the chemical and petrochemical plants are operated under closed loop scheme, the interaction of the control is also explicitly considered. An optimization problem is formulated to search for the optimal tradeoff between fault observability and closed loop performance. This optimization problem is solved in the frequency domain by using approximate closed loop transfer function models and in the time domain using a simulation based approach. The optimization in the time domain is applied to the TEP to solve for the optimal tuning parameters of the controllers that minimize an economic cost of the process

Data-Driven Fault Detection and Reasoning for Industrial Monitoring

This open access book assesses the potential of data-driven methods in industrial process monitoring engineering. The process modeling, fault detection, classification, isolation, and reasoning are studied in detail. These methods can be used to improve the safety and reliability of industrial processes. Fault diagnosis, including fault detection and reasoning, has attracted engineers and scientists from various fields such as control, machinery, mathematics, and automation engineering. Combining the diagnosis algorithms and application cases, this book establishes a basic framework for this topic and implements various statistical analysis methods for process monitoring. This book is intended for senior undergraduate and graduate students who are interested in fault diagnosis technology, researchers investigating automation and industrial security, professional practitioners and engineers working on engineering modeling and data processing applications. This is an open access book

Sensor Fault Detection and Isolation System

The purpose of this research is to develop a Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system which is capable to diagnosis multiple sensor faults in nonlinear cases. In order to lead this study closer to real world applications in oil industries, the system parameters of the applied system are assumed to be unknown. In the first step of the proposed method, phase space reconstruction techniques are used to reconstruct the phase space of the applied system. This step is aimed to infer the system property by the collected sensor measurements. The second step is to use the reconstructed phase space to predict future sensor measurements, and residual signals are generated by comparing the actually measured measurements to the predicted measurements. Since, in practice, residual signals will not perfectly equal to zero in the fault-free situation, Multiple Hypothesis Shiryayev Sequential Probability Test (MHSSPT) is introduced to further process those residual signals, and the diagnostic results are presented in probability. In addition, the proposed method is extended to a non-stationary case by using the conservation/dissipation property in phase space. The proposed method is examined by both of simulated data and real process data to support that it is capable of detecting and isolating multiple sensor faults in nonlinear cases. In the section of simulation results, a three tank model is introduced for generating simulated data. The three tank model is modeled according to a nonlinear laboratory setup DTS200. On the other hand, in the section of experimental results, the real process data collected from a sugar factory actuator system are used to examine the proposed method. According to our results obtained from simulations and experiments, the proposed method is capable to indicate both of healthy and faulty situations. These results further confirm that the proposed method is able to deal with not only simulated data but also real process data

Towards system-level prognostics : Modeling, uncertainty propagation and system remaining useful life prediction

Prognostics is the process of predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of components, subsystems, or systems. However, until now, the prognostics has often been approached from a component view without considering interactions between components and effects of the environment, leading to a misprediction of the complex systems failure time. In this work, a prognostics approach to system-level is proposed. This approach is based on a new modeling framework: the inoperability input-output model (IIM), which allows tackling the issue related to the interactions between components and the mission profile effects and can be applied for heterogeneous systems. Then, a new methodology for online joint system RUL (SRUL) prediction and model parameter estimation is developed based on particle filtering (PF) and gradient descent (GD). In detail, the state of health of system components is estimated and predicted in a probabilistic manner using PF. In the case of consecutive discrepancy between the prior and posterior estimates of the system health state, the proposed estimation method is used to correct and to adapt the IIM parameters. Finally, the developed methodology is verified on a realistic industrial system: The Tennessee Eastman Process. The obtained results highlighted its effectiveness in predicting the SRUL in reasonable computing time