Infodemiology for Syndromic Surveillance of Dengue and Typhoid Fever in the Philippines

Finding determinants of disease outbreaks before its occurrence is necessary in reducing its impact in populations. The supposed advantage of obtaining information brought by automated systems fall short because of the inability to access real-time data as well as interoperate fragmented systems, leading to longer transfer and processing of data. As such, this study presents the use of realtime latent data from social media, particularly from Twitter, to complement existing disease surveillance efforts. By being able to classify infodemiological (health-related) tweets, this study is able to produce a range of possible disease incidences of Dengue and Typhoid Fever within the Western Visayas region in the Philippines. Both diseases showed a strong positive correlation (R \u3e .70) between the number of tweets and surveillance data based on official records of the Philippine Health Agency. Regression equations were derived to determine a numerical range of possible disease incidences given certain number of tweets. As an example, the study shows that 10 infodemiological tweets represent the presence of 19-25 Dengue Fever incidences at the provincial level

Tracking Dengue Epidemics using Twitter Content Classification and Topic Modelling

Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is increasingly being used for health vigilance applications such as flu detection. However, previous work has not addressed the complexity of drastic seasonal changes on Twitter content across multiple epidemic outbreaks. In order to address this gap, this paper contrasts two complementary approaches to detecting Twitter content that is relevant for Dengue outbreak detection, namely supervised classification and unsupervised clustering using topic modelling. Each approach has benefits and shortcomings. Our classifier achieves a prediction accuracy of about 80\% based on a small training set of about 1,000 instances, but the need for manual annotation makes it hard to track seasonal changes in the nature of the epidemics, such as the emergence of new types of virus in certain geographical locations. In contrast, LDA-based topic modelling scales well, generating cohesive and well-separated clusters from larger samples. While clusters can be easily re-generated following changes in epidemics, however, this approach makes it hard to clearly segregate relevant tweets into well-defined clusters.Comment: Procs. SoWeMine - co-located with ICWE 2016. 2016, Lugano, Switzerlan

Spatio-temporal analysis of brand interest using social networks

Social Networks have become part of many people's lives, and applications like Facebook and Twitter are used on a daily basis by millions of users. In such applications, users share their feelings, opinions, and experiences. Twitter in particular, is used to talk about diverse topics, including brands and their products and services. In this paper, we analyze how brand interest is reflected on Twitter and how this platform can be used to monitor mentions of specific brands, as an indicator of brand interest. Our methodology is based on time, location, and the number of brand-related tweets to perform a spatio-temporal analysis. This type of analysis can provide relevant insights into how brand interest evolves over the time and how it might differ from one country to another. We have collected four years' worth of data and report trends, differences, and similarities in terms of brand interest for each brand and for each country.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Enhancement of Epidemiological Models for Dengue Fever Based on Twitter Data

Epidemiological early warning systems for dengue fever rely on up-to-date epidemiological data to forecast future incidence. However, epidemiological data typically requires time to be available, due to the application of time-consuming laboratorial tests. This implies that epidemiological models need to issue predictions with larger antecedence, making their task even more difficult. On the other hand, online platforms, such as Twitter or Google, allow us to obtain samples of users' interaction in near real-time and can be used as sensors to monitor current incidence. In this work, we propose a framework to exploit online data sources to mitigate the lack of up-to-date epidemiological data by obtaining estimates of current incidence, which are then explored by traditional epidemiological models. We show that the proposed framework obtains more accurate predictions than alternative approaches, with statistically better results for delays greater or equal to 4 weeks.Comment: ACM Digital Health 201

360 Quantified Self

Wearable devices with a wide range of sensors have contributed to the rise of the Quantified Self movement, where individuals log everything ranging from the number of steps they have taken, to their heart rate, to their sleeping patterns. Sensors do not, however, typically sense the social and ambient environment of the users, such as general life style attributes or information about their social network. This means that the users themselves, and the medical practitioners, privy to the wearable sensor data, only have a narrow view of the individual, limited mainly to certain aspects of their physical condition. In this paper we describe a number of use cases for how social media can be used to complement the check-up data and those from sensors to gain a more holistic view on individuals' health, a perspective we call the 360 Quantified Self. Health-related information can be obtained from sources as diverse as food photo sharing, location check-ins, or profile pictures. Additionally, information from a person's ego network can shed light on the social dimension of wellbeing which is widely acknowledged to be of utmost importance, even though they are currently rarely used for medical diagnosis. We articulate a long-term vision describing the desirable list of technical advances and variety of data to achieve an integrated system encompassing Electronic Health Records (EHR), data from wearable devices, alongside information derived from social media data.Comment: QCRI Technical Repor

Social media mining for identification and exploration of health-related information from pregnant women

Widespread use of social media has led to the generation of substantial amounts of information about individuals, including health-related information. Social media provides the opportunity to study health-related information about selected population groups who may be of interest for a particular study. In this paper, we explore the possibility of utilizing social media to perform targeted data collection and analysis from a particular population group -- pregnant women. We hypothesize that we can use social media to identify cohorts of pregnant women and follow them over time to analyze crucial health-related information. To identify potentially pregnant women, we employ simple rule-based searches that attempt to detect pregnancy announcements with moderate precision. To further filter out false positives and noise, we employ a supervised classifier using a small number of hand-annotated data. We then collect their posts over time to create longitudinal health timelines and attempt to divide the timelines into different pregnancy trimesters. Finally, we assess the usefulness of the timelines by performing a preliminary analysis to estimate drug intake patterns of our cohort at different trimesters. Our rule-based cohort identification technique collected 53,820 users over thirty months from Twitter. Our pregnancy announcement classification technique achieved an F-measure of 0.81 for the pregnancy class, resulting in 34,895 user timelines. Analysis of the timelines revealed that pertinent health-related information, such as drug-intake and adverse reactions can be mined from the data. Our approach to using user timelines in this fashion has produced very encouraging results and can be employed for other important tasks where cohorts, for which health-related information may not be available from other sources, are required to be followed over time to derive population-based estimates.Comment: 9 page