1,877 research outputs found
Generalized Evidence Theory
Conflict management is still an open issue in the application of Dempster
Shafer evidence theory. A lot of works have been presented to address this
issue. In this paper, a new theory, called as generalized evidence theory
(GET), is proposed. Compared with existing methods, GET assumes that the
general situation is in open world due to the uncertainty and incomplete
knowledge. The conflicting evidence is handled under the framework of GET. It
is shown that the new theory can explain and deal with the conflicting evidence
in a more reasonable way.Comment: 39 pages, 5 figure
Induced aggregation operators in decision making with the Dempster-Shafer belief structure
We study the induced aggregation operators. The analysis begins with a revision of some basic concepts such as the induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator and the induced ordered weighted geometric (IOWG) operator. We then analyze the problem of decision making with Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. We suggest the use of induced aggregation operators in decision making with Dempster-Shafer theory. We focus on the aggregation step and examine some of its main properties, including the distinction between descending and ascending orders and different families of induced operators. Finally, we present an illustrative example in which the results obtained using different types of aggregation operators can be seen.aggregation operators, dempster-shafer belief structure, uncertainty, iowa operator, decision making
A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle
Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual's mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle's idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory. In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is not only compared with Shackle's ideas but also with additive and sub-additive probability theories. Furthermore, the presentation of evidence theory does not refer to the original version only, but takes account of its most recent developments, too.
The belief noisy-or model applied to network reliability analysis
One difficulty faced in knowledge engineering for Bayesian Network (BN) is
the quan-tification step where the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) are
determined. The number of parameters included in CPTs increases exponentially
with the number of parent variables. The most common solution is the
application of the so-called canonical gates. The Noisy-OR (NOR) gate, which
takes advantage of the independence of causal interactions, provides a
logarithmic reduction of the number of parameters required to specify a CPT. In
this paper, an extension of NOR model based on the theory of belief functions,
named Belief Noisy-OR (BNOR), is proposed. BNOR is capable of dealing with both
aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of the network. Compared with NOR, more rich
information which is of great value for making decisions can be got when the
available knowledge is uncertain. Specially, when there is no epistemic
uncertainty, BNOR degrades into NOR. Additionally, different structures of BNOR
are presented in this paper in order to meet various needs of engineers. The
application of BNOR model on the reliability evaluation problem of networked
systems demonstrates its effectiveness
Finding Academic Experts on a MultiSensor Approach using Shannon's Entropy
Expert finding is an information retrieval task concerned with the search for
the most knowledgeable people, in some topic, with basis on documents
describing peoples activities. The task involves taking a user query as input
and returning a list of people sorted by their level of expertise regarding the
user query. This paper introduces a novel approach for combining multiple
estimators of expertise based on a multisensor data fusion framework together
with the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and Shannon's entropy. More
specifically, we defined three sensors which detect heterogeneous information
derived from the textual contents, from the graph structure of the citation
patterns for the community of experts, and from profile information about the
academic experts. Given the evidences collected, each sensor may define
different candidates as experts and consequently do not agree in a final
ranking decision. To deal with these conflicts, we applied the Dempster-Shafer
theory of evidence combined with Shannon's Entropy formula to fuse this
information and come up with a more accurate and reliable final ranking list.
Experiments made over two datasets of academic publications from the Computer
Science domain attest for the adequacy of the proposed approach over the
traditional state of the art approaches. We also made experiments against
representative supervised state of the art algorithms. Results revealed that
the proposed method achieved a similar performance when compared to these
supervised techniques, confirming the capabilities of the proposed framework
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