How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The Sustainability Factor in the German Benefit Indexation Formula

Two years after the "Riester reform" the German public pension system is once again in need of reform. The demographic and labor market assumptions underpinning the Riester reform have proved to be unrealistic. An important target of current reform attempts is the formula that annually re-adjusts the benefits for all pensioners, the benefit indexation formula. Modifications of this formula can considerably ease the financial pressure of pensions on labor since this formula impacts existing pensioners as well as new retirees. This paper presents and examines the implications of possible alternatives to the current benefit indexation formula. In particular, we examine the self-stabilizing effect of the "sustainability factor" which aims at achieving more long-run stability and intergenerational equity in the pension system by linking annual benefit changes to the so-called system dependency ratio, the ratio of beneficiaries to contributors.

How to make a defined benefit system sustainable : the "sustainable factor" in the German benefit indexation formula

Two years after the “Riester reform” the German public pension system is once again in need of reform. The demographic and labor market assumptions underpinning the Riester reform have proved to be unrealistic. An important target of current reform attempts is the formula that annually re-adjusts the benefits for all pensioners, the benefit indexation formula. Modifications of this formula can considerably ease the financial pressure of pensions on labor since this formula impacts existing pensioners as well as new retirees. This paper presents and examines the implications of possible alternatives to the current benefit indexation formula. In particular, we examine the self-stabilizing effect of the “sustainability factor” which aims at achieving more long-run stability and intergenerational equity in the pension system by linking annual benefit changes to the so-called system dependency ratio, the ratio of beneficiaries to contributors

Pension Reform through Voluntary Opt-Out: The Czech Case

The importance of long-term public finance sustainability in the context of current financial crisis is still seen as one of the basic factors of economic stability. Demographic development resulting in higher percentage of people in retirement age versus economically active people is one of the main risks. There is a growing pressure on expenditures of age-related systems. For this reason the pension scheme reforms are major issue in advanced countries. While some countries have chosen strictly regulated approach towards pension reform, some have given its citizens a choice whether to stay in the old system, or whether to switch to a new one. Such a decision is very complex and whenever the choice was implemented, many more workers switched to a new system than was expected. In this paper, the authors present a micro-based simulation model for the Czech Republic that allows them to model the individuals’ switching decision using several economic and behavioral factors within an old (PAYG DB) and new (FDC) systems. It allows them to estimate the proportion of people who would opt-out to a funded pillar. The authors´ results indicate that under the assumption of rationality and long run predictability of most parameters, only a small fraction of population would choose the multi-pillar scheme. However, this conclusion holds only under a full rationality. Once the authors relax this assumption, a wide range of switching strategies become viable. Therefore, the expectations that the switch will be popular cannot be based only on economic factors, but must also incorporate behavioral aspects, such as the risk of aversion.pension system reform, opt-out, pension fund

"Better Safe than Sorry" - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen's Perspective and Why Nots

Variations between the diverse pension systems in the member states of the European Union hamper labour market mobility, across country borders but also within the countries of the European Union. From a macroeconomic perspective, and in the light of demographic pressure, this paper argues that allowing individual instead of collective pension building would greatly improve labour market flexibility and thus enhance the functioning of the monetary union. I argue that working citizens would benefit, for three reasons, from pension saving in a risk-free savings account. First, citizens would have a clear picture of the accumulation of their own pension savings throughout their working life. Second, they would pay hardly any extra costs and, third, once retired they would not be subject to the whims of government or other pension fund managers. This paper investigates the feasibility of individual pension building under various parameter settings by calculating the pension saved during a working life and the pension dis-saved after retirement. The findings show that there are no reasons why the European Union and individual member states should not allow individual risk-free pension savings accounts. This would have macroeconomic benefits and provide a solid pension provision that can enhance mobility, instead of engaging workers in different mandatory collective pension schemes that exist around in the European Union

15 years of pension reform in Germany: old successes and new threats

The paper surveys the state of German pension system after a sequence of reforms aimed at achieving long-term sustainability. We argue that the latest reforms have moved pension provision in Germany in principle from a defined benefit to a defined contribution scheme, and that this move has stabilized pension finances to a large extent. We furthermore argue that the real economy consequences of global financial create threats to the core success factors of the reforms - cutting pension levels and raising mandatory pension age. Finally the paper discusses further possible reform measures, including the option to install a fourth pillar providing income in retirement through working after pension age. --Pension Financing,Financial Crisis,Fiscal Sustainability Survey,Germany

Working Paper 02-08 - Long-term population projections in Europe: How they influence policies and accelerate reforms

The long-term demographic projections have progressively raised concerns about the consequences of ageing population. To better understand those changes and measure their size,projections of social expenditure have been built and progressively refined. Confronted with a large budgetary cost of ageing in the long run, the Government's alternative is: solve the problemwhen it comes up or try to anticipate the negative results and prevent them. Three ways are to be considered that are not mutually incompatible: reforming the social system in order to reduce the cost for the present and future generations, increasing the tax or contribution receipts by pushing up employment rates and the trend growth of GDP and saving now in the public sector to cover the increase of the future expenditure. The paper shows that, since the end of the nineties, a broad movement of reforms has taken place in the EU which involves this three-pronged strategy.Pension expenditure, Pension projections, Pension reforms, Demographic projections, Sustainability

How will ageing affect the structure of financial markets

The ageing of the world population is an ineluctable process with major economic implications. Whereas there is extensive research on macroeconomic effects and on financial asset prices there has been more limited systematic research into the impact of demographic changes on financial asset volumes and financial market structure more generally, as driven by age related household saving and asset allocation decisions. Our empirical work based on experience of 72 countries, viewed in the light of the existing literature, suggests that demographic changes have had a detectable impact on financial structure. Ageing tends to benefit bond markets relative to equity markets, while depressing private saving and external balances, albeit not sharply reducing the overall size of the financial sector. Continuation of such patterns during the coming period of ageing have wide-ranging implications for policymakers and market participants

Ageing and the Welfare State: Securing Sustainability

Over the next four decades, increasing old-age dependency ratios exert an enormous upward pressure on welfare spending in most developed countries. As this is mainly due to existing unfunded public pension schemes, many countries have embarked on far-reaching reforms in this area, strengthening actuarial fairness, modifying indexation rules, adding elements of prefunding and, last but not least, attempting to extend the period of economic activity. Efforts to contain costs may also be relevant with regard to public expenditure on health and long-term care but, thus far, no country has started to really deal with these issues. Still, some countries have made substantial progress in securing the long-term sustainability of their welfare systems. What remains to be considered is re-constructing the system of intergenerational transactions as a potential way of removing disincentives to raise children and invest in their human capital in the long run.demographic ageing, welfare state, public expenditure, fiscal sustainability, policy reforms

The future of pension systems in europe: a reappraisal.

In this paper we examine and ultimately challenge the traditional viewpoint on the future of current pension systems in Europe, according to which the effects of the ageing bomb will inevitably bring down our unfunded PA YG public pension systems. First, we claim that the projected dramatic increase in the pension burden in mostly due to labour market problems and the generosity of the system, rather than to demographic factors. Secondly, we conclude that a fully funded system cannot be achieved without a substantial reduction in current pension payments unless it is financed by issuing earnmarked public debt. Finally we claim that a socially efficient pension system should be a mixed one, partly funded and partly PA VG, on the basis of optimal portfolio allocation in a context of uncertain returns to both human and physical capital and on the role ofPAYG for financing the accumulation of human capital.Pension systems; Funded and unfunded systems; Human and physical capital accumulation;