Identifying Restaurants Proposing Novel Kinds of Cuisines: Using Yelp Reviews

These days with TV-shows and starred chefs, new kinds of cuisines appear in the market. The main cuisines like French, Italian, Japanese, Chinese and Indian are always appreciated but they are no longer the most popular. The new trend is the fusion cuisine, which is obtained by combining different main cuisines. The opening of a new restaurant proposing new kinds of cuisine produces a lot of excitement in people. They feel the need to try it and be part of this new culture. Yelp is a platform which publishes crowd sourced reviews about different businesses, in particular, restaurants. For some restaurants in Yelp if the kind of cuisine is available, usually, there is a tag only for the main cuisines, but there is no information for the fusion cuisine. There is a need to develop a system which is able to identify restaurants proposing fusion cuisine (novel or unknown cuisines). This proposal is to address the novelty detection task using Yelp reviews. The idea is that the semi-supervised Machine Learning models trained only on the reviews of restaurants proposing the main cuisine will be able to discriminate between restaurants providing the main cuisine and restaurants providing the novel ones. We propose effective novelty detection approaches for the unknown cuisine type identification problem using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), autoencoder and Term-Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency(). Our main idea is to obtain features from LSTM, autoencoder and TF-IDF and use these features with standard semi-supervised novelty detection algorithms like Gaussian Mixture Model, Isolation Forest and One-class Support Vector Machines (SVM) to identify the unknown cuisines. We conducted extensive experiments that prove the effectiveness of our approaches. The score that we obtained has a very high discrimination power because the best value of AUROC for the novelty detection problem is 0.85 from LSTM. LSTM outperforms our baseline model of TF-IDF and the main motivation is due to its ability to retain only the useful parts of a sentence

A State-of-the-Art Review of Time Series Forecasting Using Deep Learning Approaches

Time series forecasting has recently emerged as a crucial study area with a wide spectrum of real-world applications. The complexity of data processing originates from the amount of data processed in the digital world. Despite a long history of successful time-series research using classic statistical methodologies, there are some limits in dealing with an enormous amount of data and non-linearity. Deep learning techniques effectually handle the complicated nature of time series data. The effective analysis of deep learning approaches like Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long short-term memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Autoencoders, and other techniques like attention mechanism, transfer learning, and dimensionality reduction are discussed with their merits and limitations. The performance evaluation metrics used to validate the model's accuracy are discussed. This paper reviews various time series applications using deep learning approaches with their benefits, challenges, and opportunities

A Systematic Review for Transformer-based Long-term Series Forecasting

The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven to be the most successful solution to extract the semantic correlations among the elements within a long sequence. Various variants have enabled transformer architecture to effectively handle long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. In this article, we first present a comprehensive overview of transformer architectures and their subsequent enhancements developed to address various LTSF tasks. Then, we summarize the publicly available LTSF datasets and relevant evaluation metrics. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights into the best practices and techniques for effectively training transformers in the context of time-series analysis. Lastly, we propose potential research directions in this rapidly evolving field

Overløpskontroll i avløpsnett med forskjellige modelleringsteknikker og internet of things

Increased urbanization and extreme rainfall events are causing more frequent instances of sewer overflow, leading to the pollution of water resources and negative environmental, health, and fiscal impacts. At the same time, the treatment capacity of wastewater treatment plants is seriously affected. The main aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to use the Internet of Things and various modeling techniques to investigate the use of real-time control on existing sewer systems to mitigate overflow. The role of the Internet of Things is to provide continuous monitoring and real-time control of sewer systems. Data collected by the Internet of Things are also useful for model development and calibration. Models are useful for various purposes in real-time control, and they can be distinguished as those suitable for simulation and those suitable for prediction. Models that are suitable for a simulation, which describes the important phenomena of a system in a deterministic way, are useful for developing and analyzing different control strategies. Meanwhile, models suitable for prediction are usually employed to predict future system states. They use measurement information about the system and must have a high computational speed. To demonstrate how real-time control can be used to manage sewer systems, a case study was conducted for this thesis in Drammen, Norway. In this study, a hydraulic model was used as a model suitable for simulation to test the feasibility of different control strategies. Considering the recent advances in artificial intelligence and the large amount of data collected through the Internet of Things, the study also explored the possibility of using artificial intelligence as a model suitable for prediction. A summary of the results of this work is presented through five papers. Paper I demonstrates that one mainstream artificial intelligence technique, long short-term memory, can precisely predict the time series data from the Internet of Things. Indeed, the Internet of Things and long short-term memory can be powerful tools for sewer system managers or engineers, who can take advantage of real-time data and predictions to improve decision-making. In Paper II, a hydraulic model and artificial intelligence are used to investigate an optimal in-line storage control strategy that uses the temporal storage volumes in pipes to reduce overflow. Simulation results indicate that during heavy rainfall events, the response behavior of the sewer system differs with respect to location. Overflows at a wastewater treatment plant under different control scenarios were simulated and compared. The results from the hydraulic model show that overflows were reduced dramatically through the intentional control of pipes with in-line storage capacity. To determine available in-line storage capacity, recurrent neural networks were employed to predict the upcoming flow coming into the pipes that were to be controlled. Paper III and Paper IV describe a novel inter-catchment wastewater transfer solution. The inter-catchment wastewater transfer method aims at redistributing spatially mismatched sewer flows by transferring wastewater from a wastewater treatment plant to its neighboring catchment. In Paper III, the hydraulic behaviors of the sewer system under different control scenarios are assessed using the hydraulic model. Based on the simulations, inter-catchment wastewater transfer could efficiently reduce total overflow from a sewer system and wastewater treatment plant. Artificial intelligence was used to predict inflow to the wastewater treatment plant to improve inter-catchment wastewater transfer functioning. The results from Paper IV indicate that inter-catchment wastewater transfer might result in an extra burden for a pump station. To enhance the operation of the pump station, long short-term memory was employed to provide multi-step-ahead water level predictions. Paper V proposes a DeepCSO model based on large and high-resolution sensors and multi-task learning techniques. Experiments demonstrated that the multi-task approach is generally better than single-task approaches. Furthermore, the gated recurrent unit and long short-term memory-based multi-task learning models are especially suitable for capturing the temporal and spatial evolution of combined sewer overflow events and are superior to other methods. The DeepCSO model could help guide the real-time operation of sewer systems at a citywide level.publishedVersio

Essays on Predictive Analytics in E-Commerce

Die Motivation für diese Dissertation ist dualer Natur: Einerseits ist die Dissertation methodologisch orientiert und entwickelt neue statistische Ansätze und Algorithmen für maschinelles Lernen. Gleichzeitig ist sie praktisch orientiert und fokussiert sich auf den konkreten Anwendungsfall von Produktretouren im Onlinehandel. Die “data explosion”, veursacht durch die Tatsache, dass die Kosten für das Speichern und Prozessieren großer Datenmengen signifikant gesunken sind (Bhimani and Willcocks, 2014), und die neuen Technologien, die daraus resultieren, stellen die größte Diskontinuität für die betriebliche Praxis und betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung seit Entwicklung des Internets dar (Agarwal and Dhar, 2014). Insbesondere die Business Intelligence (BI) wurde als wichtiges Forschungsthema für Praktiker und Akademiker im Bereich der Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI) identifiziert (Chen et al., 2012). Maschinelles Lernen wurde erfolgreich auf eine Reihe von BI-Problemen angewandt, wie zum Beispiel Absatzprognose (Choi et al., 2014; Sun et al., 2008), Prognose von Windstromerzeugung (Wan et al., 2014), Prognose des Krankheitsverlaufs von Patienten eines Krankenhauses (Liu et al., 2015), Identifikation von Betrug Abbasi et al., 2012) oder Recommender-Systeme (Sahoo et al., 2012). Allerdings gibt es nur wenig Forschung, die sich mit Fragestellungen um maschinelles Lernen mit spezifischen Bezug zu BI befasst: Obwohl existierende Algorithmen teilweise modifiziert werden, um sie auf ein bestimmtes Problem anzupassen (Abbasi et al., 2010; Sahoo et al., 2012), beschränkt sich die WI-Forschung im Allgemeinen darauf, existierende Algorithmen, die für andere Fragestellungen als BI entwickelt wurden, auf BI-Fragestellungen anzuwenden (Abbasi et al., 2010; Sahoo et al., 2012). Das erste wichtige Ziel dieser Dissertation besteht darin, einen Beitrag dazu zu leisten, diese Lücke zu schließen. Diese Dissertation fokussiert sich auf das wichtige BI-Problem von Produktretouren im Onlinehandel für eine Illustration und praktische Anwendung der vorgeschlagenen Konzepte. Viele Onlinehändler sind nicht profitabel (Rigby, 2014) und Produktretouren sind eine wichtige Ursache für dieses Problem (Grewal et al., 2004). Neben Kostenaspekten sind Produktretouren aus ökologischer Sicht problematisch. In der Logistikforschung ist es weitestgehend Konsens, dass die “letzte Meile” der Zulieferkette, nämlich dann wenn das Produkt an die Haustür des Kunden geliefert wird, am CO2-intensivsten ist (Browne et al., 2008; Halldórsson et al., 2010; Song et al., 2009). Werden Produkte retourniert, wird dieser energieintensive Schritt wiederholt, wodurch sich die Nachhaltigkeit und Umweltfreundlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells von Onlinehändlern relativ zum klassischen Vertrieb reduziert. Allerdings können Onlinehändler Produktretouren nicht einfach verbieten, da sie einen wichtigen Teil ihres Geschäftsmodells darstellen: So hat die Möglichkeit, Produkte zu retournieren positive Auswirkungen auf Kundenzufriedenheit (Cassill, 1998), Kaufverhalten (Wood, 2001), künftiges Kaufverhalten (Petersen and Kumar, 2009) und emotianale Reaktionen der Kunden (Suwelack et al., 2011). Ein vielversprechender Ansatz besteht darin, sich auf impulsives und kompulsives (LaRose, 2001) sowie betrügerisches Kaufverhalten zu fokussieren (Speights and Hilinski, 2005; Wachter et al., 2012). In gegenwärtigen akademschen Literatur zu dem Thema gibt es keine solchen Strategien. Die meisten Strategien unterscheiden nicht zwischen gewollten und ungewollten Retouren (Walsh et al., 2014). Das zweite Ziel dieser Dissertation besteht daher darin, die Basis für eine Strategie von Prognose und Intervention zu entwickeln, mit welcher Konsumverhalten mit hoher Retourenwahrscheinlichkeit im Vorfeld erkannt und rechtzeitig interveniert werden kann. In dieser Dissertation werden mehrere Prognosemodelle entwickelt, auf Basis welcher demonstriert wird, dass die Strategie, unter der Annahme moderat effektiver Interventionsstrategien, erhebliche Kosteneinsparungen mit sich bringt

Machine Learning based Models for Fresh Produce Yield and Price Forecasting for Strawberry Fruit

Building market price forecasting models of Fresh Produce (FP) is crucial to protect retailers and consumers from highly priced FP. However, the task of forecasting FP prices is highly complex due to the very short shelf life of FP, inability to store for long term and external factors like weather and climate change. This forecasting problem has been traditionally modelled as a time series problem. Models for grain yield forecasting and other non-agricultural prices forecasting are common. However, forecasting of FP prices is recent and has not been fully explored. In this thesis, the forecasting models built to fill this void are solely machine learning based which is also a novelty. The growth and success of deep learning, a type of machine learning algorithm, has largely been attributed to the availability of big data and high end computational power. In this thesis, work is done on building several machine learning models (both conventional and deep learning based) to predict future yield and prices of FP (price forecast of strawberries are said to be more difficult than other FP and hence is used here as the main product). The data used in building these prediction models comprises of California weather data, California strawberry yield, California strawberry farm-gate prices and a retailer purchase price data. A comparison of the various prediction models is done based on a new aggregated error measure (AGM) proposed in this thesis which combines mean absolute error, mean squared error and R^2 coefficient of determination. The best two models are found to be an Attention CNN-LSTM (AC-LSTM) and an Attention ConvLSTM (ACV-LSTM). Different stacking ensemble techniques such as voting regressor and stacking with Support vector Regression (SVR) are then utilized to come up with the best prediction. The experiment results show that across the various examined applications, the proposed model which is a stacking ensemble of the AC-LSTM and ACV-LSTM using a linear SVR is the best performing based on the proposed aggregated error measure. To show the robustness of the proposed model, it was used also tested for predicting WTI and Brent crude oil prices and the results proved consistent with that of the FP price prediction

A study of statistical and machine learning methods for power price prediction based on filling levels of hydropower reservoirs

The European power markets have become highly integrated over the past decade. The electrical grids of individual countries are increasingly well connected between each other, which allows for trading the electricity on the common markets and thus enhances the development of diverse electricity sources across the continent. With that comes an increasing volatility of the power prices. It is in the interest of all market players involved in generating, supplying, trading and consuming the electricity to find a way to forecast the power price as accurately as possible. This study investigates the potential of using filling level data from hydropower reservoirs and historical power price data - particularly, the Nordic system price - to forecast the future system price. For this purpose, three forecasting models for time series analysis were developed and evaluated - a statistical approach, as well as two artificial neural network architectures with different levels of complexity. The statistical approach is based on the autoregressive integrated moving-average model with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX), while the investigated neural networks include (a) a standard recurrent neural network (RNN), and (b) a combination of one-dimensional convolutional layers (1D CNNs) and a long short-term memory cell (LSTM). The experimental part of this work is based on data collected from 63 Norwegian hydropower reservoirs between 2015-2021. An extensive hyperparameter tuning was conducted on the machine learning models, including input data transformations, prediction time frames, network architecture parameters and the shape of the RNN/LSTM 3D input data tensor. The ARIMAX model outperformed the machine learning models for both most thoroughly tested prediction time frames of 14 and 28 days, achieving the R2 score of 0.8 and the MAE of 5.40 EUR. After a qualitative assessment of the obtained results it has been concluded that the models show some promising potential, however, a number of aspects would have to be further investigated to develop a mature solution, ready for practical use in, e.g. power trading.M-D