Supply chain control: Trade-offs and system requirements

The official published version can be accessed from the link below.A paper describes the underlying forces which drive change in manufacturing enterprises and supply chains. It sets out the complexities in modern capitalism and global economics and illustrates the trade-offs that can be made. IT systems which are required to assist improvements to both customer service and enterprise manufacturing performance are explained, alluding to the special case for the semiconductor industry. Arguments are presented showing how the new tools being developed with the ESPRIT project 20544, X-CITTIC, will satisfy the control needs for a virtual enterprise. This paper describes the underlying forces which drive change in manufacturing enterprises and supply chains. It sets out the complexities in modem capitalism and global economics and illustrates the trade-offs that can be made. IT systems which are required to assist improvements to both customer service and enterprise manufacturing performance are explained alluding to the special case for the semiconductor industry. Finally it shows how the new tools being developed with the ESPRIT project 20544, XCITTIC, will satisfy the control needs for a virtual enterprise

Economic impact of large public programs: The NASA experience

The economic impact of NASA programs on weather forecasting and the computer and semiconductor industries is discussed. Contributions to the advancement of the science of astronomy are also considered

Polycrystalline silicon study: Low-cost silicon refining technology prospects and semiconductor-grade polycrystalline silicon availability through 1988

Photovoltaic arrays that convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective bulk energy generation alternative, provided that an adequate supply of low cost materials is available. One of the key requirements for economic photovoltaic cells is reasonably priced silicon. At present, the photovoltaic industry is dependent upon polycrystalline silicon refined by the Siemens process primarily for integrated circuits, power devices, and discrete semiconductor devices. This dependency is expected to continue until the DOE sponsored low cost silicon refining technology developments have matured to the point where they are in commercial use. The photovoltaic industry can then develop its own source of supply. Silicon material availability and market pricing projections through 1988 are updated based on data collected early in 1984. The silicon refining industry plans to meet the increasing demands of the semiconductor device and photovoltaic product industries are overviewed. In addition, the DOE sponsored technology research for producing low cost polycrystalline silicon, probabilistic cost analysis for the two most promising production processes for achieving the DOE cost goals, and the impacts of the DOE photovoltaics program silicon refining research upon the commercial polycrystalline silicon refining industry are addressed

Testing The Limits: A Robustness Analysis Of Logistic Growth Models For Life Cycle Estimation During The COVID-19 Pandemic

The semiconductor industry operates in a dynamic environment characterized by rapid technological advancements, extensive research and development investments, long planning horizons, and cyclical market behavior. Consequently, staying vigilant to technological disruptions and shifting trends is crucial. This is especially challenging when external shocks seriously affect supply chain processes and demand patterns. Particularly, recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and high consumer price inflation impacting the semiconductor cycle emphasize the need to account for these influences. In this context, we analyze growth patterns and life cycles of various technologies within the semiconductor industry by estimating logistic growth models. The logistic growth model was originally formulated to describe population dynamics. However, many processes outside the discipline of ecology share the fundamental characteristics of natural growth: self-proportionality and a self-regulating mechanism. Out of the different applications, two are of particular interest in the context of strategic business decisions: (1) modeling innovation diffusion and technological change to predict the mid- to long-term growth of a market, and (2) modeling of product life cycles. To obtain market growth and life cycle predictions, we apply the logistic growth model to forecast cumulative revenues by technology over time. This model treats the analyzed technology as a closed system. However, in practice, external shocks are the norm. To analyze the robustness to such external shocks, we compare technology life cycle estimates derived from logistic growth models before and after the effects of COVID-19 became evident for a wide array of semiconductor technologies. We find that the impact of COVID-19 on these life cycle estimates is mixed, but the median change is low. Our findings have implications for the application of logistic growth models in strategic decision-making, helping stakeholders navigate the complexities of technological innovation, diffusion, and market growth

From Confrontation to Coopetition in the Globalized Semiconductor Industry

The silicon chip is not only a symbol of marvellous technologies that are transforming industrial production and leisure time in society, but also of trade and technology conflicts while at the same time offering the potential for cooperation.The purpose of this paper is to show that the semiconductor industry has moved from being highly confrontational to being much more cooperative as is evidenced by the emergence of cross-national strategic alliances between companies, spanning R&D, product development, production and distribution.Over the last 15 years the semiconductor industry has experienced startling reversals of competitive fortune in which the USA dominated in 1970s, then Japan entered in 1980s, and in 1986 surpassed the USA as the largest producer of semiconductors with most US firms abandoning DRAM production due to price competition.This reversal of market position has become known as the X-curve. Since the early 1990s the Americans are on top again but with the Koreans and the Taiwanese coming on fast.With China and perhaps India coming on line in the present decade or so, these reversals in competitiveness will continue to play themselves out in the market.Due to external economies and spillover effects for other industries, this industry is considered to be a strategic sector, not only in the USA, where the industry came into existence, but also in Japan and Europe.Observing the excessive returns earned initially in this industry in the USA, Japanese companies wanted to shift these profits, at least in part, to Japan, for which the Japanese government provided support.The closing of the Japanese market both to imports and foreign direct investment undermined the initial American competitive strength.In order to counteract the loss of competitiveness the US industry reacted, besides by restructuring, by creating, with government funding, the research consortium SEMATECH, while the American government responded by concluding since 1986 bilateral trade agreements with Japan in which Japan initially agreed to "voluntarily" restrict its exports of semiconductors and to "voluntarily" expand the imports of American chips.In the mid-1980s Europe was a marginal player in the global competitive battle and suffered dependence on the USA and Japan.This was a consequence of decisions taken by European firms but part also lies in the fragmentation of the European market and the policy pursued by

The electronics industry in central and eastern Europe: an emerging production location in the alignment of networks perspective

This paper analyses the emergence of central Europe as a new location for the production of electronics. The main factors that drive integration in the region into global production networks are also analysed, as well as prospects for upgrading the industry by using network alignment perspectives. Foreign investment is the primary vehicle of integration of CEE electronics firms into global production networks, and Hungary has moved furthest along this path, positioning itself as a major low-cost supply base in the region. Czech and Polish electronics industries are connected, in smaller, but increasing, degrees to international electronics production networks. Networks that are being built in CEE in electronics are usually confined to subsidiaries with still limited local subcontracting; they are export-oriented and are expanding. Local subsidiaries have mastered production capabilities and several subsidiaries in Hungary are European mandate suppliers in their respective lines of business. EU demand is the main pull factor, which gives cohesion to the actions of MNCs as well as to the action of local and national governments in CEE. The layer of local firms is still very weak with very limited capabilities in core technologies. This is the key weakness which prevents further alignment of networks in CEE electronics. Local governments play an important role in working jointly with foreign investors in establishing industrial parks and new capacities