Complex systems science: expert consultation report

Executive SummaryA new programme of research in Complex Systems Science must be initiated by FETThe science of complex systems (CS) is essential to establish rigorous scientific principles on which to develop the future ICT systems that are critical to the well-being, safety and prosperity of Europe and its citizens. As the “ICT incubator and pathfinder for new ideas and themes for long-term research in the area of information and communication technologies” FET must initiate a significant new programme of research in complex systems science to underpin research and development in ICT. Complex Systems Science is a “blue sky” research laboratory for R&D in ICT and their applications. In July 2009, ASSYST was given a set of probing questions concerning FET funding for ICT-related complex systems research. This document is based on the CS community’s response.Complex systems research has made considerable progress and is delivering new scienceSince FET began supporting CS research, considerable progress has been made. Building on previous understanding of concepts such as emergence from interactions, far-from-equilibrium systems, border of chaos and self-organised criticality, recent CS research is now delivering rigorous theory through methods of statistical physics, network theory, and computer simulation. CS research increasingly demands high-throughput data streams and new ICT-based methods of observing and reconstructing, i.e. modelling, the dynamics from those data in areas as diverse as embryogenesis, neuroscience, transport, epidemics, linguistics, meteorology, and robotics. CS research is also beginning to address the problem of engineering robust systems of systems of systems that can adapt to changing environments, including the perplexing problem that ICT systems are too often fragile and non-adaptive.Recommendation: A Programme of Research in Complex Systems Science to Support ICTFundamental theory in Complex Systems Science is needed, but this can only be achieved through real-world applications involving large, heterogeneous, and messy data sets, including people and organisations. A long-term vision is needed. Realistic targets can be set. Fundamental research can be ensured by requiring that teams include mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and computational social scientists.One research priority is to develop a formalism for multilevel systems of systems of systems, applicable to all areas including biology, economics, security, transportation, robotics, health, agriculture, ecology, and climate change. Another related research priority is a scientific perspective on the integration of the new science with policy and its implementation, including ethical problems related to privacy and equality.A further priority is the need for education in complex systems science. Conventional education continues to be domain-dominated, producing scientists who are for the most part still lacking fundamental knowledge in core areas of mathematics, computation, statistical physics, and social systems. Therefore:1. We recommend that FET fund a new programme of work in complex systems science as essential research for progress in the development of new kinds of ICT systems.2. We have identified the dynamics of multilevel systems as the area in complex systems science requiring a major paradigm shift, beyond which significant scientific progress cannot be made.3. We propose a call requiring: fundamental research in complex systems science; new mathematical and computational formalisms to be developed; involving a large ‘guinea pig’ organisation; research into policy and its meta-level information dynamics; and that all research staff have interdisciplinary knowledge through an education programme.Tangible outcomes, potential users of the new science, its impact and measures of successUsers include (i) the private and public sectors using ICT to manage complex systems and (ii) researchers in ICT, CSS, and all complex domains. The tangible output of a call will be new knowledge on the nature of complex systems in general, new knowledge of the particular complex system(s) studied, and new knowledge of the fundamental role played by ICT in the research and implementation to create real systems addressing real-world problems. The impact of the call will be seen through new high added-value opportunities in the public and private sectors, new high added-value ICT technologies, and new high added-value science to support innovation in ICT research and development. The measure of success will be through the delivery of these high added-value outcomes, and new science to better understand failures

Improving NRM Investment through a policy performance lens

Choosing a mechanism to encourage landholders to change their land management in order to deliver environmental outcomes is a complicated process. Careful instrument selection may count for little if uptake and adoption are insufficient to meet performance targets. Similarly, investors may require assurance that the proposed investment will deliver the stated goals. In order to reduce the uptake uncertainty facing policy makers we evaluate and describe several possible methods to guide and frame adoption targets. We conclude that referring to past adoption experience of a wide range of mechanisms offers the best approach to setting feasible adoption targets for future mechanisms. We call this adoption points of reference. This approach is tested by application to mechanisms focusing on delivering water quality improvements in GBR catchments. We conclude that the points of reference approach is appropriate and useful but should be supported by processes designed to incorporate the impact of heterogeneity and local knowledge and an emphasis on improving the accuracy of future data.adoption targets, NRM investment, reasonable assurance, water quality,

Teaching Accounting and Finance to non-specialists: revealing the students' perspective on the learning experience

This study is concerned with the non-specialist accounting and finance students’ perspective on the usefulness, scope, and practical application of relevant modules within their program of study. It also evaluates relevant teaching and learning approaches adopted by accounting academics teaching non-specialist - instead of introductory - accounting modules, through revealing the students' perceptions on the effectiveness of these approaches in creating a high quality learning experience. Lectures' teaching competencies are rated first in terms of importance for their learning experience by the vast majority of students. Issues relevant to the curricula's 'real world' application, as well as, the development of clear links between lecture material and assessment practise, engrossed considerable attention by the respondents. Education technology and reading material on the other hand appeared to be of prior importance for a smaller number of students

Blurring the boundaries between synthesis and evaluation. A customized realist evaluative synthesis into adolescent risk behavior prevention

Realist methodologies have been increasingly advocated for the investigation of complex social issues. Public health programs, such as those designed to prevent adolescent risk behavior, are typically considered complex. In conducting a realist review of the empirical literature relating to such programs, we encountered several challenges, including (a) an overabundance of empirical evidence, (b) a problematic level of heterogeneity within and between methodological approaches, (c) discrepancies between theoretical underpinnings and program operationalization, (d) homogeneity of program outcomes, with very little variation in program effectiveness, and (d) a paucity of description relating to content and process. To overcome these challenges, we developed a customized approach to realist evidence synthesis, drawing on the VICTORE (Volition, Implementation, Contexts, Time, Outcomes, Rivalry, and Emergence) complexity checklist and incorporating stakeholder engagement as primary data to achieve greater depth of understanding relating to contextual and mechanistic factors, and the complex interactions between them. Here we discuss the benefits of this adapted methodology alongside an overview of the research through which the methodology was developed. A key finding from this research was that combining the complexity checklist with primary data from stakeholder engagement enabled us to systematically interrogate the data across data sources, uncovering and evidencing mechanisms which may otherwise have remained hidden, giving greater ontological depth to our research findings. This paper builds on key methodological developments in realist research, demonstrating how realist methodologies can be customized to overcome challenges in developing and refining program theory from the literature, and contributes to the broader literature of innovative approaches to realist research

Next Generation Cloud Computing: New Trends and Research Directions

The landscape of cloud computing has significantly changed over the last decade. Not only have more providers and service offerings crowded the space, but also cloud infrastructure that was traditionally limited to single provider data centers is now evolving. In this paper, we firstly discuss the changing cloud infrastructure and consider the use of infrastructure from multiple providers and the benefit of decentralising computing away from data centers. These trends have resulted in the need for a variety of new computing architectures that will be offered by future cloud infrastructure. These architectures are anticipated to impact areas, such as connecting people and devices, data-intensive computing, the service space and self-learning systems. Finally, we lay out a roadmap of challenges that will need to be addressed for realising the potential of next generation cloud systems.Comment: Accepted to Future Generation Computer Systems, 07 September 201

Customer-engineer relationship management for converged ICT service companies

Thanks to the advent of converged communications services (often referred to as ‘triple play’), the next generation Service Engineer will need radically different skills, processes and tools from today’s counterpart. Why? in order to meet the challenges of installing and maintaining services based on multi-vendor software and hardware components in an IP-based network environment. The converged services environment is likely to be ‘smart’ and support flexible and dynamic interoperability between appliances and computing devices. These radical changes in the working environment will inevitably force managers to rethink the role of Service Engineers in relation to customer relationship management. This paper aims to identify requirements for an information system to support converged communications service engineers with regard to customer-engineer relationship management. Furthermore, an architecture for such a system is proposed and how it meets these requirements is discussed

Feeling the squeeze? Tabbies or tigers: the case of social enterprises contracting in the fields of recycling and work integration

Current UK policy is encouraging the identification, emergence, transmutation or invention of third sector organisations that will have a social enterprise orientation with a particular focus on them as vehicles for the delivery of public services (Audit Commission 2005). This can be seen as part of the new governance agenda (Taylor, Wilkinson and Craig 2001, Kendal 2003, Stoker 2004) the form of which is still emergent. One view of governance refers to a 'hollowing out' of state powers (Rhodes, 1997) and a shift from state control to co-ordination using mechanisms such as networks and partnerships to bring together the public, private and third sector as well as community actors and citizens in reforming services. Local Authority white paper (2006) promised further decentralisation moving functions downwards to special purpose bodies and outwards to agencies and communities. The new Local Government White Paper emphasises the role of community engagement, partnership arrangements and devolved budgets with voluntary organisations at the local level (NCVO 2006: 2-3). Such processes are aimed both at both private and third sector providers. In this new distributed system of governance partnership and collaboration plays an important role in the implementation of social goods although these processes are never unproblematic (Huxham & Vangen 2000; Taylor Taylor, Wilkinson and Craig 2001). Nevertheless the contracting out processes continue to gather speed: with recycling and waste, care, leisure services, work advice, health services, prison and probation at various stages in the continuum of change. Against this background the role and form of social enterprise organisations appears at times to be assumed to be 'heterogeneous' and 'good' with all organisations tending towards similar development trajectories with uniform support needs. What is often not distinguished so clearly are the differing types of social enterprise; the different sub-sectors of the economy they are operating in; the variety of markets and funding regimes they are involved in; the different partnership regimes they are embedded within; and their different cultures and connection to local communities. All of these factors have implications for what types of organisations (large/small social enterprise; local/national organisations, and even social enterprise or private organisation) are favoured in the contracting processes and how such processes may affect their wider mission and ethos. Social enterprises are sometimes treated by policy makers, and at times by leaders, practitioners and researchers within the sector as if they were one thing. Crudely we might say they are treated as if they are all cats when in reality some are tigers and some are tabbys – with every breed in between. Nevertheless, despite the heterogeneity of the social enterprise scene we are seeing evidence of a convergence of form in contracting processes which, we argue, tends to favour the tigers and squeeze the tabbys. This paper reports on recent empirical research and analysis in 2 sub fields of social enterprise activity: (a) the delivery of waste and recycling services (Slater 2006) and (b) the delivery of work integration and advice activities for the disadvantaged (Aiken 2006, 2007)