Responding to Election Meddling in the Cyberspace: An International Law Case Study on the Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election

International law is not the most perfect legal regime, and, perhaps to no one’s surprise, it is even less perfect in cyberspace. The United States has been a victim to a series of malicious cyber operations in recent years, and the key question is how to respond to and deter them. This Article offers a detailed survey of the Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election in the context of international law. Adapting the framework created by Tallinn Manual 2.0 , the Article examines the international legal basis of the response measures employed by the United States and other possible alternative responses to the Russian operation. It concludes that none of these responses are both squarely supported by international law and desirable as a matter of national security police. This Article intends to show that international law contains considerable gray areas in the cyber realm that allow sophisticated adversaries like Russia to harm the core interest of the United States without substantial legal repercussions. The Article concludes by suggesting that a deterrence mechanism based on proactive national security policy would be more effective and practical than one based on international law

Micromotives of Vote Switchers and Macrotransitions: The Case of the Immigration Issue in a Regional Earthquake Election in Germany 2018

Which issue-related motives underlie voters' decision to switch parties at the polls? Do switchers stick to the newly chosen party, or do they oscillate in a short-term way at intermediate elections? Relying on the behavioral theory of elections, we assumed aspiration-based voting of boundedly rational voters. We elicited issue-related switch and stay motives in an open-ended survey question format to identify the individual dominant aspirational frame. We traced the respondents' voting trajectories over three consecutive elections, including two state (2013 and 2018) elections in Bavaria (Germany) and one German federal election (2017). We focused on one of the most polarizing and salient issues in these elections, namely immigration. The case of reference is the 2018 Bavarian state election. Here, the incumbent majoritarian center-right party Christian Social Union tried to deter the entry of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany by adapting to it on the immigration issue in tone and position. The selected case allows assessment of the impact of issue-based adaptive behavior of the incumbent party at the level of the voters' switch or stay choices. We estimated the direction and number of voter flows for two interelection sequences of different lengths between different types of polls (federal and state). Our transition estimates are based on the hybrid multinomial Dirichlet model, a new technique integrating individual-level survey data and official aggregate data. Our estimates uncover substantial behavioral differences in the immigration issue public

The NSDAP vote in the Weimarer Republic: an assessment of the state-of-the-Art in view of modern electoral research (1)

In den letzten Jahren ist in einigen Studien die These bestritten worden, daß der Aufstieg des Nationalsozialismus in der Weimarer Republik im wesentlichen durch die unteren Mittelschichten ermöglicht worden ist. Sie vermuten dagegen eine wesentliche breitere Basis der NSDAP. Anhand verfeinerter statistischer Analysen kann von der NSDAP als der ersten 'Volkspartei' gesprochen werden. Der vorliegende Beitrag resümiert diese Studien und diskutiert sie hinsichtlich ihrer methodischen Validität. Diese kritische Sichtung legt keine grundlegende Revision der ursprünglichen These nahe. Der Trend, die Wahlforschung der Weimarer Republik auf lokale und regionale Unterschiede in der statistischen Analyse hin zu verfeinern, wird als Gewinn für die historische Sozialforschung verbucht.'Over the last decade, several authors have questioned the conventional wisdom about the rise of Nazism in the Weimar Republic: that Hitler's main support came from the lower middle-classes. They suggest a much broader support base for the Nazis. Most pointedly, they describe the NSDAP as a first Volksparei - in part using a much improved data base and employing complex statistical techniques. This paper examines the true extent of substantive differences, assesses the methodological soundness of various studies, and offers a synthesis of insights based on solid empirical evidence. Rhetoric aside, the more recent studies provide refinement and corroboration rather than grounds for a fundamental revision. As a guide for further research, a shift from global statistical analysis to local and regional studies using a multitude of data sources is recommended.' (author's abstract

Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons drawn from household surveys in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America

Public statistics face quite a challenge when it comes to measuring new dimensions of development (institutions, governance, and social and political participation). To take up this challenge, modules on Governance, Democracy and Multiple Dimensions of Poverty have been appended to household surveys by National Statistics Institutes in twelve African and Latin-American developing countries. This paper presents the issues addressed and the methodological lessons learnt along with a selection of findings to illustrate this innovative approach and demonstrate its analytic potential. We investigate, for instance, the population’s support for democratic principles, the respect for civil and political rights and the trust in the political class; the “need for the State”, particularly of the poorest; the extent of petty corruption; the reliability of expert surveys on governance; the perception of decentralisation policies at local level; the level and vitality of social and political participation, etc. The conclusive appraisal made opens up prospects for the national statistical information systems in the developing countries. The measurement and tracking of this new set of objective and subjective public policy monitoring indicators would benefit from being made systematic.Africa, Latin America, Democracy, Monitoring Mechanism, Household Surveys,

Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.Siirretty Doriast

Devolution and the New Zealand Resource Management Act

Many past and potential New Zealand reforms involve significant devolution, i.e. the transfer of authority to make decisions on behalf of society from a higher to a lower level of government. In particular the Resource Management Act (RMA), the health and education reforms, and decisions about the institutions for addressing Maori issues have led to significant devolution of authority. Employment policy and social welfare are areas where devolution is an important policy option. The role and function of local government also is inherently an issue of the appropriate level of devolution. Many of these reforms have now been in place for a number of years, so it is appropriate to review our experience of devolution, identify the successes, and attempt to address the problems that have arisen. Two papers address issues of when and how we should devolve authority from central to local government. This paper looks at devolution both from a general theoretical standpoint and from the perspective of the New Zealand Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA), with residential land use as an illustration. Although the RMA is discussed throughout both papers, the framework developed applies to any area of policy for which devolution decisions are being considered. The second paper, Treasury Working Paper 98/7a, applies the framework to the optimal pattern of devolution for policies relating to kiwi protection.

A proposal for the use of blockchain in the portuguese voting system

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceThe key objective of this proposal is to present one of the problems that the Portuguese economy, as well as other European countries, have been facing in regard to the civil society intervention in the democracy: the decrease of turnover rates in the voting system. The main objective is to propose the use of Blockchain technology in the Portuguese Voting System, as a mechanism to counter this trend. In order to understand how the possible application of a remote e-voting system succeeds, Estonia was selected as the case of study. Its architecture, as well as the legal, social and technological issues and challenges associated are investigated in the light of the information collected in the literature review. Considering the case analysis and discussion, a set of recommendations that purpose the use of a remote electronic voting system in the Portuguese electoral system are presented and a critical analysis about the introduction of a Blockchain algorithm is made. This dissertation concludes about the advantages and disadvantages from the use of this decentralized system when compared with a system involving a third-party as the one used in the Estonian I-Voting. The validation is based on interviews and discussions with professors in the area of information systems and law, and also with a contribution of a Digital adviser of the Estonian e-Governance model