Analysis and Detection of Outliers in GNSS Measurements by Means of Machine Learning Algorithms

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TEC forecasting based on manifold trajectories

In this paper, we present a method for forecasting the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) distribution from the International GNSS Service’s Global Ionospheric Maps. The forecasting system gives an estimation of the value of the TEC distribution based on linear combination of previous TEC maps (i.e., a set of 2D arrays indexed by time), and the computation of a tangent subspace in a manifold associated to each map. The use of the tangent space to each map is justified because it allows modeling the possible distortions from one observation to the next as a trajectory on the tangent manifold of the map. The coefficients of the linear combination of the last observations along with the tangent space are estimated at each time stamp to minimize the mean square forecasting error with a regularization term. The estimation is made at each time stamp to adapt the forecast to short-term variations in solar activity.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Application of Model-Based Time Series Prediction of Infrared Long-Wave Radiation Data for Exploring the Precursory Patterns Associated with the 2021 Madoi Earthquake

Taking the Madoi MS 7.4 earthquake of 21 May 2021 as an example, this paper proposes using time series prediction models to predict the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies and study short-term pre-earthquake signals. Five time series prediction models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were trained with the OLR time series data of the aseismic moments in the 5° × 5° spatial range around the epicenter. The model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to retrospectively predict the OLR values during the aseismic period and before the earthquake in the area. It was found, by comparing the predicted time series values with the actual time series value, that the similarity indexes of the two time series before the earthquake were lower than the index of the aseismic period, indicating that the predicted time series before the earthquake significantly differed from the actual time series. Meanwhile, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the anomalies in the 90 days before the earthquake were analyzed with a 95% confidence interval as the criterion of the anomalies, and the following was found: out of 25 grids, 18 grids showed anomalies—the anomalies of the different grids appeared on similar dates, and the anomalies of high values appeared centrally at the time of the earthquake, which supports the hypothesis that pre-earthquake signals may be associated with the earthquake

Method for forecasting ionospheric electron content fluctuations based on the optical flow algorithm

We present the optical flow algorithm for forecasting the rate of total electron content index (OFROTI). It consists of a method for predicting maps of rapid fluctuations of ionospheric electron content in terms of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) dual-frequency phase measurements of the rate of change of total electron content index (ROTI). The forecast is made in space and time, at horizons up to more than 6 h. These forecast maps will consist of the ROTI spatial distribution in the northern hemisphere above 45° latitude. The prediction method models the ROTI spatial distribution as a pseudoconservative flux, i.e., exploiting the inertia of the flux of ROTI to determine the future position. This idea is implemented as a modification of the optical flow image processing technique. The algorithm has been modified to deal with the nonconservation of the ROTI quantity in time. We show that the method can predict both, the local value of ROTI and also the regions with ROTI above a given level, better than the prediction using the current map as forecast, i.e., predicting by a current map from horizons of 15 min up to 6 h. The method was tested on 11 representative active and calm days during 2015 and 2018 from the multi-GNSS (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and Beidou) multifrequency measurements of more than 250 multi-GNSS receivers above 45°N latitude, including the high rate (1 Hz) measurements of Greenland geodetic network (GNET) network among the International GNSS Service network.This work is funded by ESA ITT “Forecasting Space Weather Impacts on Navigation Systems in the Arctic (Green-land Area)” Expro+, Activity No. 1000026374. The GNET GNSS observations from Greenland was kindly provided by The Danish Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency, in the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate, Copenhagen, DenmarkPeer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A Deep Learning Prediction Model Based on Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Cluster Analysis

Aiming at the irregularity of nonlinear signal and its predicting difficulty, a deep learning prediction model based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) and clustering analysis is proposed. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by ESMD to obtain the finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residuals. Secondly, the fuzzy c-means is used to cluster the decomposed components, and then the deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict it. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Six kinds of prediction models are compared, which are DBN prediction model, EMD-DBN prediction model, EEMD-DBN prediction model, CEEMD-DBN prediction model, ESMD-DBN prediction model, and the proposed model in this paper. The same sunspots time series are predicted with six kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error

Imputing missing data using grey system theory and the biplot method to forecast groundwater levels and yields

Groundwater management is one of today’s important tasks. It has become necessary to seek out increasingly reliable methods to conserve groundwater resources. Dependable forecasting of the amounts of groundwater that can be abstracted in a sustainable manner requires longterm monitoring of the groundwater regime (rate of abstraction and groundwater levels). Monitoring of the groundwater source for the town of Bečej, Serbia had been disrupted for multiple years. The objective of the paper is to assess the possibility of reinterpreting the missing data or, in other words, to reconstruct the operation of the groundwater source and its effect on groundwater levels. At the Bečej source, groundwater is withdrawn from three water-bearing strata comprised of fine- to coarse-grained sands. Historic data are used to reconstruct the operation of the Bečej source between 1st of October 1980 to 1st of May 2010. The monitored parameters are total source yield and piezometric head at seven observation wells and 14 pumping wells. A data reconstruction methodology was developed, which included the use of an autoregressive (AR) model, a grey model (GM), and the biplot method. The methodology is applied to fill the data gaps during the considered period. The paper also describes the criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the AR model, GM, and biplot method. The proposed data reconstruction approach yielded satisfactory results and the methodology is deemed useful for the Bečej source data, as well as other historic data not necessarily associated with groundwater sources, but also groundwater control and protection systems, as well as hydrometeorological, hydrological and similar uses

Auroral Image Processing Techniques - Machine Learning Classification and Multi-Viewpoint Analysis

Every year, millions of scientific images are acquired in order to study the auroral phenomena. The accumulated data contain a vast amount of untapped information that can be used in auroral science. Yet, auroral research has traditionally been focused on case studies, where one or a few auroral events have been investigated and explained in detail. Consequently, theories have often been developed on the basis of limited data sets, which can possibly be biased in location, spatial resolution or temporal resolution. Advances in technology and data processing now allow for acquisition and analysis of large image data sets. These tools have made it feasible to perform statistical studies based on auroral data from numerous events, varying geophysical conditions and multiple locations in the Arctic and Antarctic. Such studies require reliable auroral image processing techniques to organize, extract and represent the auroral information in a scientifically rigorous manner, preferably with a minimal amount of user interaction. This dissertation focuses on two such branches of image processing techniques: machine learning classification and multi-viewpoint analysis. Machine learning classification: This thesis provides an in-depth description on the implementation of machine learning methods for auroral image classification; from raw images to labeled data. The main conclusion of this work is that convolutional neural networks stand out as a particularly suitable classifier for auroral image data, achieving up to 91 % average class-wise accuracy. A major challenge is that most auroral images have an ambiguous auroral form. These images can not be readily labeled without establishing an auroral morphology, where each class is clearly defined. Multi-viewpoint analysis: Three multi-viewpoint analysis techniques are evaluated and described in this work: triangulation, shell-projection and 3-D reconstruction. These techniques are used for estimating the volume distribution of artificially induced aurora and the height and horizontal distribution of a newly reported auroral feature: Lumikot aurora. The multi-viewpoint analysis techniques are compared and methods for obtaining uncertainty estimates are suggested. Overall, this dissertation evaluates and describes auroral image processing techniques that require little or no user input. The presented methods may therefore facilitate statistical studies such as: probability studies of auroral classes, investigations of the evolution and formation of auroral structures, and studies of the height and distribution of auroral displays. Furthermore, automatic classification and cataloging of large image data sets will support auroral scientists in finding the data of interest, reducing the needed time for manual inspection of auroral images