Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting with Machine Learning

Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Business AnalyticsAn accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is one of the most critical inputs for power plant units’ planning commitment. STLF reduces the overall planning uncertainty added by the intermittent production of renewable sources; thus, it helps to minimize the hydro-thermal electricity production costs in a power grid. Although there is some research in the field and even several research applications, there is a continual need to improve forecasts. This project proposes a set of machine learning (ML) models to improve the accuracy of 168 hours forecasts. The developed models employ features from multiple sources, such as historical load, weather, and holidays. Of the five ML models developed and tested in various load profile contexts, the Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBoost) algorithm showed the best results, surpassing previous historical weekly predictions based on neural networks. Additionally, because XGBoost models are based on an ensemble of decision trees, it facilitated the model’s interpretation, which provided a relevant additional result, the features’ importance in the forecasting

Intent prediction of vulnerable road users for trusted autonomous vehicles

This study investigated how future autonomous vehicles could be further trusted by vulnerable road users (such as pedestrians and cyclists) that they would be interacting with in urban traffic environments. It focused on understanding the behaviours of such road users on a deeper level by predicting their future intentions based solely on vehicle-based sensors and AI techniques. The findings showed that personal/body language attributes of vulnerable road users besides their past motion trajectories and physics attributes in the environment led to more accurate predictions about their intended actions

Analysis of Artificial Intelligence based diagnostic methods for satellites

The growing utilization of small satellites in various applications has emphasized the need for reliable diagnostic methods to ensure their optimal performance and longevity. This master thesis focuses on the analysis of artificial intelligence-based diagnostic methods for these particular space assets. This work firstly explores the main characteristics and applications of small satellites, highlighting the critical subsystems and components that play a vital role in their proper functioning. The key components of this study revolve around Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Health Monitoring (DPHM) systems and techniques for small satellites. The DPHM systems aim at monitoring the health status of the satellite, detecting anomalies and predicting future system behavior. The reason why advanced DPHM systems are of interest for the space operators is the fact that they mitigate the risk of satellites catastrophic failures that may lead to service interruptions or mission abort. To achieve these objectives, a hybrid architecture combining Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks is proposed. This architecture leverages the strengths of CNNs in feature extraction and LSTM networks in capturing temporal dependencies. The integration of these two neural network architectures enhances the diagnostic capabilities and enables accurate predictions for small satellite systems. Real data collected from an operational satellite is utilized to validate and test the proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid architecture. Based on the experimental results obtained, advantages and drawbacks of the exploitation of this architecture are discussed.The growing utilization of small satellites in various applications has emphasized the need for reliable diagnostic methods to ensure their optimal performance and longevity. This master thesis focuses on the analysis of artificial intelligence-based diagnostic methods for these particular space assets. This work firstly explores the main characteristics and applications of small satellites, highlighting the critical subsystems and components that play a vital role in their proper functioning. The key components of this study revolve around Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Health Monitoring (DPHM) systems and techniques for small satellites. The DPHM systems aim at monitoring the health status of the satellite, detecting anomalies and predicting future system behavior. The reason why advanced DPHM systems are of interest for the space operators is the fact that they mitigate the risk of satellites catastrophic failures that may lead to service interruptions or mission abort. To achieve these objectives, a hybrid architecture combining Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks is proposed. This architecture leverages the strengths of CNNs in feature extraction and LSTM networks in capturing temporal dependencies. The integration of these two neural network architectures enhances the diagnostic capabilities and enables accurate predictions for small satellite systems. Real data collected from an operational satellite is utilized to validate and test the proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid architecture. Based on the experimental results obtained, advantages and drawbacks of the exploitation of this architecture are discussed

Efficient Deep Learning Models for Privacy-preserving People Counting on Low-resolution Infrared Arrays

Ultra-low-resolution Infrared (IR) array sensors offer a low-cost, energy-efficient, and privacy-preserving solution for people counting, with applications such as occupancy monitoring. Previous work has shown that Deep Learning (DL) can yield superior performance on this task. However, the literature was missing an extensive comparative analysis of various efficient DL architectures for IR array-based people counting, that considers not only their accuracy, but also the cost of deploying them on memory- and energy-constrained Internet of Things (IoT) edge nodes. In this work, we address this need by comparing 6 different DL architectures on a novel dataset composed of IR images collected from a commercial 8x8 array, which we made openly available. With a wide architectural exploration of each model type, we obtain a rich set of Pareto-optimal solutions, spanning cross-validated balanced accuracy scores in the 55.70-82.70% range. When deployed on a commercial Microcontroller (MCU) by STMicroelectronics, the STM32L4A6ZG, these models occupy 0.41-9.28kB of memory, and require 1.10-7.74ms per inference, while consuming 17.18-120.43 $\mu$J of energy. Our models are significantly more accurate than a previous deterministic method (up to +39.9%), while being up to 3.53x faster and more energy efficient. Further, our models' accuracy is comparable to state-of-the-art DL solutions on similar resolution sensors, despite a much lower complexity. All our models enable continuous, real-time inference on a MCU-based IoT node, with years of autonomous operation without battery recharging.Comment: This article has been accepted for publication in IEEE Internet of Things Journa

IoT Anomaly Detection Methods and Applications: A Survey

Ongoing research on anomaly detection for the Internet of Things (IoT) is a rapidly expanding field. This growth necessitates an examination of application trends and current gaps. The vast majority of those publications are in areas such as network and infrastructure security, sensor monitoring, smart home, and smart city applications and are extending into even more sectors. Recent advancements in the field have increased the necessity to study the many IoT anomaly detection applications. This paper begins with a summary of the detection methods and applications, accompanied by a discussion of the categorization of IoT anomaly detection algorithms. We then discuss the current publications to identify distinct application domains, examining papers chosen based on our search criteria. The survey considers 64 papers among recent publications published between January 2019 and July 2021. In recent publications, we observed a shortage of IoT anomaly detection methodologies, for example, when dealing with the integration of systems with various sensors, data and concept drifts, and data augmentation where there is a shortage of Ground Truth data. Finally, we discuss the present such challenges and offer new perspectives where further research is required.Comment: 22 page

Object detection, distributed cloud computing and parallelization techniques for autonomous driving systems.

Autonomous vehicles are increasingly becoming a necessary trend towards building the smart cities of the future. Numerous proposals have been presented in recent years to tackle particular aspects of the working pipeline towards creating a functional end-to-end system, such as object detection, tracking, path planning, sentiment or intent detection, amongst others. Nevertheless, few efforts have been made to systematically compile all of these systems into a single proposal that also considers the real challenges these systems will have on the road, such as real-time computation, hardware capabilities, etc. This paper reviews the latest techniques towards creating our own end-to-end autonomous vehicle system, considering the state-of-the-art methods on object detection, and the possible incorporation of distributed systems and parallelization to deploy these methods. Our findings show that while techniques such as convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and long short-term memory can effectively handle the initial detection and path planning tasks, more efforts are required to implement cloud computing to reduce the computational time that these methods demand. Additionally, we have mapped different strategies to handle the parallelization task, both within and between the networks

Contributions to improve the technologies supporting unmanned aircraft operations

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorUnmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), in their smaller versions known as drones, are becoming increasingly important in today's societies. The systems that make them up present a multitude of challenges, of which error can be considered the common denominator. The perception of the environment is measured by sensors that have errors, the models that interpret the information and/or define behaviors are approximations of the world and therefore also have errors. Explaining error allows extending the limits of deterministic models to address real-world problems. The performance of the technologies embedded in drones depends on our ability to understand, model, and control the error of the systems that integrate them, as well as new technologies that may emerge. Flight controllers integrate various subsystems that are generally dependent on other systems. One example is the guidance systems. These systems provide the engine's propulsion controller with the necessary information to accomplish a desired mission. For this purpose, the flight controller is made up of a control law for the guidance system that reacts to the information perceived by the perception and navigation systems. The error of any of the subsystems propagates through the ecosystem of the controller, so the study of each of them is essential. On the other hand, among the strategies for error control are state-space estimators, where the Kalman filter has been a great ally of engineers since its appearance in the 1960s. Kalman filters are at the heart of information fusion systems, minimizing the error covariance of the system and allowing the measured states to be filtered and estimated in the absence of observations. State Space Models (SSM) are developed based on a set of hypotheses for modeling the world. Among the assumptions are that the models of the world must be linear, Markovian, and that the error of their models must be Gaussian. In general, systems are not linear, so linearization are performed on models that are already approximations of the world. In other cases, the noise to be controlled is not Gaussian, but it is approximated to that distribution in order to be able to deal with it. On the other hand, many systems are not Markovian, i.e., their states do not depend only on the previous state, but there are other dependencies that state space models cannot handle. This thesis deals a collection of studies in which error is formulated and reduced. First, the error in a computer vision-based precision landing system is studied, then estimation and filtering problems from the deep learning approach are addressed. Finally, classification concepts with deep learning over trajectories are studied. The first case of the collection xviiistudies the consequences of error propagation in a machine vision-based precision landing system. This paper proposes a set of strategies to reduce the impact on the guidance system, and ultimately reduce the error. The next two studies approach the estimation and filtering problem from the deep learning approach, where error is a function to be minimized by learning. The last case of the collection deals with a trajectory classification problem with real data. This work completes the two main fields in deep learning, regression and classification, where the error is considered as a probability function of class membership.Los vehículos aéreos no tripulados (UAV) en sus versiones de pequeño tamaño conocidos como drones, van tomando protagonismo en las sociedades actuales. Los sistemas que los componen presentan multitud de retos entre los cuales el error se puede considerar como el denominador común. La percepción del entorno se mide mediante sensores que tienen error, los modelos que interpretan la información y/o definen comportamientos son aproximaciones del mundo y por consiguiente también presentan error. Explicar el error permite extender los límites de los modelos deterministas para abordar problemas del mundo real. El rendimiento de las tecnologías embarcadas en los drones, dependen de nuestra capacidad de comprender, modelar y controlar el error de los sistemas que los integran, así como de las nuevas tecnologías que puedan surgir. Los controladores de vuelo integran diferentes subsistemas los cuales generalmente son dependientes de otros sistemas. Un caso de esta situación son los sistemas de guiado. Estos sistemas son los encargados de proporcionar al controlador de los motores información necesaria para cumplir con una misión deseada. Para ello se componen de una ley de control de guiado que reacciona a la información percibida por los sistemas de percepción y navegación. El error de cualquiera de estos sistemas se propaga por el ecosistema del controlador siendo vital su estudio. Por otro lado, entre las estrategias para abordar el control del error se encuentran los estimadores en espacios de estados, donde el filtro de Kalman desde su aparición en los años 60, ha sido y continúa siendo un gran aliado para los ingenieros. Los filtros de Kalman son el corazón de los sistemas de fusión de información, los cuales minimizan la covarianza del error del sistema, permitiendo filtrar los estados medidos y estimarlos cuando no se tienen observaciones. Los modelos de espacios de estados se desarrollan en base a un conjunto de hipótesis para modelar el mundo. Entre las hipótesis se encuentra que los modelos del mundo han de ser lineales, markovianos y que el error de sus modelos ha de ser gaussiano. Generalmente los sistemas no son lineales por lo que se realizan linealizaciones sobre modelos que a su vez ya son aproximaciones del mundo. En otros casos el ruido que se desea controlar no es gaussiano, pero se aproxima a esta distribución para poder abordarlo. Por otro lado, multitud de sistemas no son markovianos, es decir, sus estados no solo dependen del estado anterior, sino que existen otras dependencias que los modelos de espacio de estados no son capaces de abordar. Esta tesis aborda un compendio de estudios sobre los que se formula y reduce el error. En primer lugar, se estudia el error en un sistema de aterrizaje de precisión basado en visión por computador. Después se plantean problemas de estimación y filtrado desde la aproximación del aprendizaje profundo. Por último, se estudian los conceptos de clasificación con aprendizaje profundo sobre trayectorias. El primer caso del compendio estudia las consecuencias de la propagación del error de un sistema de aterrizaje de precisión basado en visión artificial. En este trabajo se propone un conjunto de estrategias para reducir el impacto sobre el sistema de guiado, y en última instancia reducir el error. Los siguientes dos estudios abordan el problema de estimación y filtrado desde la perspectiva del aprendizaje profundo, donde el error es una función que minimizar mediante aprendizaje. El último caso del compendio aborda un problema de clasificación de trayectorias con datos reales. Con este trabajo se completan los dos campos principales en aprendizaje profundo, regresión y clasificación, donde se plantea el error como una función de probabilidad de pertenencia a una clase.I would like to thank the Ministry of Science and Innovation for granting me the funding with reference PRE2018-086793, associated to the project TEC2017-88048-C2-2-R, which provide me the opportunity to carry out all my PhD. activities, including completing an international research internship.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: Antonio Berlanga de Jesús.- Secretario: Daniel Arias Medina.- Vocal: Alejandro Martínez Cav