3,172 research outputs found
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Software tools for stochastic programming: A Stochastic Programming Integrated Environment (SPInE)
SP models combine the paradigm of dynamic linear programming with
modelling of random parameters, providing optimal decisions which hedge
against future uncertainties. Advances in hardware as well as software
techniques and solution methods have made SP a viable optimisation tool.
We identify a growing need for modelling systems which support the creation
and investigation of SP problems. Our SPInE system integrates a number of
components which include a flexible modelling tool (based on stochastic
extensions of the algebraic modelling languages AMPL and MPL), stochastic
solvers, as well as special purpose scenario generators and database tools.
We introduce an asset/liability management model and illustrate how SPInE
can be used to create and process this model as a multistage SP application
Economic effects of mobile technologies on operations of sales agents
In the presented paper we introduce an approach to assess particular economic effects which may arise with bringing mobile technologies into the field of sales and distribution. The research problem posed here comprises quite a special case where sales operations of a company are carried by its sales representatives, which may count as a resource allocation problem. We apply stochastic programming methodology to model the agent's multistage decision making in a distribution system with uncertain customer demands, and exemplify a potential improvement in the company's overall performance when mobile facilities are utilized for making decisions. We provide finally an efficient computational algorithm that delivers optimal decision making with and without mobile technologies, and computers the expected overall performance in both cases, for any configuration of a distribution system. Some computational results are presented. --
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Dynamic asset (and liability) management under market and credit risk
We introduce a modelling paradigm which integrates credit risk and market
risk in describing the random dynamical behaviour of the underlying fixed income assets.
We then consider an asset and liability management (ALM) problem and develop a mul-
tistage stochastic programming model which focuses on optimum risk decisions. These
models exploit the dynamical multiperiod structure of credit risk and provide insight
into the corrective recourse decisions whereby issues such as the timing risk of default is
appropriately taken into consideration. We also present a index tracking model in which
risk is measured (and optimised) by the CVaR of the tracking portfolio in relation to the
index. Both in- and out-of-sample (backtesting) experiments are undertaken to validate
our approach. In this way we are able to demonstrate the feasibility and flexibility of
the chosen framework
Investment and the Dynamic Cost of Income Uncertainty: the Case of Diminishing Expectations in Agriculture
This paper studies optimal investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty, applying a stochastic programming approach. The motivation is given by a case study in Finnish agriculture. Investment decision is modelled as a Markov decision process, extended to account for risk. A numerical framework for studying the dynamic uncertainty cost is presented, modifying the classical expected value of perfect information to a dynamic setting. The uncertainty cost depends on the volatility of income; e.g. with stationary income, the dynamic uncertainty cost corresponds to a dynamic option value of postponing investment. The numerical investment model also yields the optimal investment behavior of a representative farm. The model can be applied e.g. in planning investment subsidies for maintaining target investments. In the case study, the investment decision is sensitive to risk.Financial Economics,
AN APPLICATION OF SAFETY-FIRST PROBABILITY LIMITS IN A DISCRETE STOCHASTIC FARM MANAGEMENT PROGRAMMING MODEL
A sequential decision-making model was developed, and data from farm-raised catfish production were used to demonstrate its use. Outcomes of sequences of decisions which satisfied chance constraints on ending cash balances were traced through a specified time period. Discrete choice variables were specified due to the fixed nature of pond facilities. Recourse actions specified were sale of production in excess of endogenously determined transfer levels or purchase of inputs to supplement needs of the next production stage. Production activities cannot be changed during the planning period. Only yield variability was considered due to its impact on relative competitiveness among growth stages. Deviations were calculated from endogenously determined target levels based on goal and probability limits.Farm Management,
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