Decision-theoretic MPC: Motion Planning with Weighted Maneuver Preferences Under Uncertainty

Continuous optimization based motion planners require deciding on a maneuver homotopy before optimizing the trajectory. Under uncertainty, maneuver intentions of other participants can be unclear, and the vehicle might not be able to decide on the most suitable maneuver. This work introduces a method that incorporates multiple maneuver preferences in planning. It optimizes the trajectory by considering weighted maneuver preferences together with uncertainties ranging from perception to prediction while ensuring the feasibility of a chance-constrained fallback option. Evaluations in both driving experiments and simulation studies show enhanced interaction capabilities and comfort levels compared to conventional planners, which consider only a single maneuver

Probabilistic Motion Planning for Automated Vehicles

This thesis targets the problem of motion planning for automated vehicles. As a prerequisite for their on-road deployment, automated vehicles must show an appropriate and reliable driving behavior in mixed traffic, i.e. alongside human drivers. Besides the uncertainties resulting from imperfect perception, occlusions and limited sensor range, also the uncertainties in the behavior of other traffic participants have to be considered. Related approaches for motion planning in mixed traffic often employ a deterministic problem formulation. The solution of such formulations is restricted to a single trajectory. Deviations from the prediction of other traffic participants are accounted for during replanning, while large uncertainties lead to conservative and over-cautious behavior. As a result of the shortcomings of these formulations in cooperative scenarios and scenarios with severe uncertainties, probabilistic approaches are pursued. Due to the need for real-time capability, however, a holistic uncertainty treatment often induces a strong limitation of the action space of automated vehicles. Moreover, safety and traffic rule compliance are often not considered. Thus, in this work, three motion planning approaches and a scenario-based safety approach are presented. The safety approach is based on an existing concept, which targets the guarantee that automated vehicles will never cause accidents. This concept is enhanced by the consideration of traffic rules for crossing and merging traffic, occlusions, limited sensor range and lane changes. The three presented motion planning approaches are targeted towards the different predominant uncertainties in different scenarios, while operating in a continuous action space. For non-interactive scenarios with clear precedence, a probabilistic approach is presented. The problem is modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). In contrast to existing approaches, the underlying assumption is that the prediction of the future progression of the uncertainty in the behavior of other traffic participants can be performed independently of the automated vehicle\u27s motion plan. In addition to this prediction of currently visible traffic participants, the influence of occlusions and limited sensor range is considered. Despite its thorough uncertainty consideration, the presented approach facilitates planning in a continuous action space. Two further approaches are targeted towards the predominant uncertainties in interactive scenarios. In order to facilitate lane changes in dense traffic, a rule-based approach is proposed. The latter seeks to actively reduce the uncertainty in whether other vehicles willingly make room for a lane change. The generated trajectories are safe and traffic rule compliant with respect to the presented safety approach. To facilitate cooperation in scenarios without clear precedence, a multi-agent approach is presented. The globally optimal solution to the multi-agent problem is first analyzed regarding its ambiguity. If an unambiguous, cooperative solution is found, it is pursued. Still, the compliance of other vehicles with the presumed cooperation model is checked, and a conservative fallback trajectory is pursued in case of non-compliance. The performance of the presented approaches is shown in various scenarios with intersecting lanes, partly with limited visibility, as well as lane changes and a narrowing without predefined right of way

Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles in Partially Observable Environments

Unsicherheiten, welche aus Sensorrauschen oder nicht beobachtbaren Manöverintentionen anderer Verkehrsteilnehmer resultieren, akkumulieren sich in der Datenverarbeitungskette eines autonomen Fahrzeugs und führen zu einer unvollständigen oder fehlinterpretierten Umfeldrepräsentation. Dadurch weisen Bewegungsplaner in vielen Fällen ein konservatives Verhalten auf. Diese Dissertation entwickelt zwei Bewegungsplaner, welche die Defizite der vorgelagerten Verarbeitungsmodule durch Ausnutzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit des Fahrzeugs kompensieren. Diese Arbeit präsentiert zuerst eine ausgiebige Analyse über die Ursachen und Klassifikation der Unsicherheiten und zeigt die Eigenschaften eines idealen Bewegungsplaners auf. Anschließend befasst sie sich mit der mathematischen Modellierung der Fahrziele sowie den Randbedingungen, welche die Sicherheit gewährleisten. Das resultierende Planungsproblem wird mit zwei unterschiedlichen Methoden in Echtzeit gelöst: Zuerst mit nichtlinearer Optimierung und danach, indem es als teilweise beobachtbarer Markov-Entscheidungsprozess (POMDP) formuliert und die Lösung mit Stichproben angenähert wird. Der auf nichtlinearer Optimierung basierende Planer betrachtet mehrere Manöveroptionen mit individuellen Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten und berechnet daraus ein Bewegungsprofil. Er garantiert Sicherheit, indem er die Realisierbarkeit einer zufallsbeschränkten Rückfalloption gewährleistet. Der Beitrag zum POMDP-Framework konzentriert sich auf die Verbesserung der Stichprobeneffizienz in der Monte-Carlo-Planung. Erstens werden Informationsbelohnungen definiert, welche die Stichproben zu Aktionen führen, die eine höhere Belohnung ergeben. Dabei wird die Auswahl der Stichproben für das reward-shaped Problem durch die Verwendung einer allgemeinen Heuristik verbessert. Zweitens wird die Kontinuität in der Reward-Struktur für die Aktionsauswahl ausgenutzt und dadurch signifikante Leistungsverbesserungen erzielt. Evaluierungen zeigen, dass mit diesen Planern große Erfolge in Fahrversuchen und Simulationsstudien mit komplexen Interaktionsmodellen erreicht werden

Belief State Planning for Autonomous Driving: Planning with Interaction, Uncertain Prediction and Uncertain Perception

This work presents a behavior planning algorithm for automated driving in urban environments with an uncertain and dynamic nature. The algorithm allows to consider the prediction uncertainty (e.g. different intentions), perception uncertainty (e.g. occlusions) as well as the uncertain interactive behavior of the other agents explicitly. Simulating the most likely future scenarios allows to find an optimal policy online that enables non-conservative planning under uncertainty

Interaction-Aware Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles with Multi-Modal Obstacle Uncertainty Predictions

This paper proposes an interaction and safety-aware motion-planning method for an autonomous vehicle in uncertain multi-vehicle traffic environments. The method integrates the ability of the interaction-aware interacting multiple model Kalman filter (IAIMM-KF) to predict interactive multi-modal maneuvers of surrounding vehicles, and the advantage of model predictive control (MPC) in planning an optimal trajectory in uncertain dynamic environments. The multi-modal prediction uncertainties, containing both the maneuver and trajectory uncertainties of surrounding vehicles, are considered in computing the reference targets and designing the collision-avoidance constraints of MPC for resilient motion planning of the ego vehicle. The MPC achieves safety awareness by incorporating a tunable parameter to adjust the predicted obstacle occupancy in the design of the safety constraints, allowing the approach to achieve a trade-off between performance and robustness. Based on the prediction of the surrounding vehicles, an optimal reference trajectory of the ego vehicle is computed by MPC to follow the time-varying reference targets and avoid collisions with obstacles. The efficiency of the method is illustrated in challenging highway-driving simulation scenarios and a driving scenario from a recorded traffic dataset.Comment: 15 page

Mathematical Methods and Operation Research in Logistics, Project Planning, and Scheduling

In the last decade, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 brought flexible supply chains and flexible design projects to the forefront. Nevertheless, the recent pandemic, the accompanying economic problems, and the resulting supply problems have further increased the role of logistics and supply chains. Therefore, planning and scheduling procedures that can respond flexibly to changed circumstances have become more valuable both in logistics and projects. There are already several competing criteria of project and logistic process planning and scheduling that need to be reconciled. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that even more emphasis needs to be placed on taking potential risks into account. Flexibility and resilience are emphasized in all decision-making processes, including the scheduling of logistic processes, activities, and projects

Pitfalls of Analysis

Systems Analysis-or Policy Analysis, as it is sometimes called when public problems are being addressed-aims to deepen our understanding of sociotechnical problems, and to bring about improved solutions to them. However, the craft of systems analysis is a relatively new one, and its practitioners are still exploring ways to conduct such analyses properly, a task complicated by the necessary use of tools and knowledge from many disciplines and contexts. Any craft learns both by what works and by what fails to work, and systems analysis is no exception. This book contributes to the craft of systems analysis by describing many pitfalls of analysis that will lead to failure, thus helping analysts and users to recognize and avoid them