Index Manipulation, the CFTC, and the Inanity of DiPlacido

Commodity markets are designed to enhance the flow of commoditiesand reduce risks for both buyers and sellers. Unfortunately, these marketscan be open to market manipulation, with economic actors functioning todistort markets and gain profits from engaging in activities that distortprices. This issue has increased in prominence over the last several yearsdue to concerns about the manipulation of various energy markets. The nature of market manipulation, the role of the primary enforcer ofsuch rules -- the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and itsrecent decision in DiPlacido are reviewed in this paper. The CFTC decision demonstrates its deficient understanding of both manipulationlaw and the actual workings of commodity markets. In particular, the CFTC appears to have no ability to discern the difference between procompetitivetrading according to supply-and-demand forces, and themarket manipulation that destroys markets. This raises significantquestions about whether the CFTC, the designated expert agency in thisarea, can be trusted to protect commodity markets from manipulation.

Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in Deregulated Electricity Markets Using Linear Decision Rules

The deregulation of electricity markets increases the financial risk faced by retailers who procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers’ electricity demand. To hedge against this exposure, retailers often hold a portfolio of electricity derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose a multistage stochastic mean-variance optimisation model for the management of such a portfolio. To reduce computational complexity, we perform two approximations: stage-aggregation and linear decision rules (LDR). The LDR approach consists of restricting the set of decision rules to those affine in the history of the random parameters. When applied to mean-variance optimisation models, it leads to convex quadratic programs. Since their size grows typically only polynomially with the number of periods, they can be efficiently solved. Our numerical experiments illustrate the value of adaptivity inherent in the LDR method and its potential for enabling scalability to problems with many periods.OR in energy, electricity portfolio management, stochastic programming, risk management, linear decision rules

Information Elicitation for Decision Making

Proper scoring rules, particularly when used as the basis for a prediction market, are powerful tools for eliciting and aggregating beliefs about events such as the likely outcome of an election or sporting event. Such scoring rules incentivize a single agent to reveal her true beliefs about the event. Othman and Sandholm introduced the idea of a decision rule to examine these problems in contexts where the information being elicited is conditional on some decision alternatives. For example, “What is the probability having ten million viewers if we choose to air new television show X? What if we choose Y?” Since only one show can actually air in a slot, only the results under the chosen alternative can ever be observed. Othman and Sandholm developed proper scoring rules (and thus decision markets) for a single, deterministic decision rule: always select the the action with the greatest probability of success. In this work we significantly generalize their results, developing scoring rules for other deterministic decision rules, randomized decision rules, and situations where there may be more than two outcomes (e.g. less than a million viewers, more than one but less than ten, or more than ten million).Engineering and Applied Science

Social Simulation of Stock Markets: Taking It to the Next Level

This paper studies the use of social simulation in linking micro level investor behaviour and macro level stock market dynamics. Empirical data from a survey on individual investors\' decision-making and social interaction was used to formalize the trading and interaction rules of the agents of the artificial stock market SimStockExchange. Multiple simulation runs were performed with this artificial stock market, which generated macro level results, like stock market prices and returns over time. These outcomes were subsequently compared to empirical macro level data from real stock markets. Partial qualitative as well as quantitative agreement between the simulated asset returns distributions and the asset returns distributions of the real stock markets was found.Agent-Based Computational Finance, Artificial Stock Markets, Behavioral Finance, Micro-Macro Links, Multi-Agent Simulation, Stock Market Characteristics

Emotion and financial markets

Psychologists and economists hold vastly different views about human behavior. Psychologists contend that economists' models bear little relation to actual behavior. This view is supported by a large body of psychological research that shows that emotional state can significantly affect decision making. ; Economists, on the other hand, argue that psychological studies have no theoretical basis and offer little empirical evidence about people's decision-making processes. The reigning financial economics paradigm-the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)-assumes that individuals make rational investment decisions using the rules of probability and statistics. A newer branch of financial economics called behavioral finance applies lessons from psychology to financial decision making, but most of these studies have focused on cognitive biases rather than emotion. ; The authors of this article argue that emotion has important, and possibly beneficial, influences on financial behavior. After defining the term emotion and describing how emotions can be categorized, the authors consider how emotions influence human behavior. The discussion focuses particularly on three aspects of emotion and financial decision making: emotional disposition and stock market pricing, the feeling of regret, and investors' emotional response to information. ; No new financial economics paradigm that incorporates behavioral influences and better models actual behavior has yet emerged to replace the EMH. Yet the authors believe that emotional behavior's influence on financial decision making should be taken into account in future research.Financial markets

Bankrisiko und Risikosteuerung mit Derivaten

We use a model of a bank under perfect competition to examine effects of derivatives for tradeable and non tradeable risks on optimal bank behavior in the deposit and loan markets. If both credit risk and interest risk are tradeable, we identify simple decision rules which require only market and cost data for setting deposit and loan volumes optimally. In the case of non tradeable risks, however, optimal behavior also depends on the degree of risk aversion, the distributions of random variables and the financial resources of the bank. Simple decision rules then no longer exist.banking, credit risk, interest risk, risk aversion, derivatives

Transferring Water in the American West: 1987-2005

Rising urban and environmental demand for water has created growing pressure to re-allocate water from traditional agricultural uses. Water markets are powerful institutions for facilitating this re-allocation, yet the evolution of water markets has been more complicated than those for other resources. In this paper, we set the context for water marketing with an overview of western water law that highlights unique aspects of water law that affect how or whether a water market can develop. Second, we present new, comprehensive data on the extent, nature, and timing of water transfers across 12 western states from 1987-2005. We describe the methodology and decision rules used to collect water transfer information. Third, we identify water market trends and movements to provide a greater understanding of the institutional structure and the mechanisms by which water is transferred in the American West

Product market regulation in Bulgaria : a comparison with OECD Countries

Less restrictive product market policies are crucial in promoting convergence to higher levels of GDP per capita. This paper benchmarks product market policies in Bulgaria to those of OECD countries by estimating OECD indicators of Product Market Regulation (PMR). The PMR indicators allow a comprehensive mapping of policies affecting competition in product markets. Comparison with OECD countries reveals that Bulgaria has made substantial progress towards less restrictive product market policies but also emphasizes a number of areas where further reform is needed. These include adoption of a regulatory process based on incentive-based rather than command-and-control approach, reduction of state interference in the decision of state-owned enterprises, further streamlining of business licensing procedures, and improvement in the communication of rules and procedures to affected parties.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Public Sector Regulation,E-Business,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access

Volatility and stock market direction: a study on emerging markets.

Volatility indices, such VIX, can be used for determining stock market direction. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between changes in the VIX direction and changes in the turning point of S&P 500 and the MSCI Latin-America Emerging Market index, in order to see whether they anticipate the changes. Also, the volatility of emerging markets measured by standard deviation and their relationship with the stock market movements within this market are calculated, since the greater the value of the volatility, the greater the likelihood of a rise or fall. In order to locate the turning point and the upward and downward phases of the cycles, empirical methods are applied and are characterized by using a set of decision rules that reflect the practical experience gained by analysts. Our conclusions include: Turning points, or peaks and troughs, in the VIX are coincident with peaks and troughs in the opposite direction for the S&P 500 index and in emerging markets