Solving multiple-criteria R&D project selection problems with a data-driven evidential reasoning rule

In this paper, a likelihood based evidence acquisition approach is proposed to acquire evidence from experts'assessments as recorded in historical datasets. Then a data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model is introduced to R&D project selection process by combining multiple pieces of evidence with different weights and reliabilities. As a result, the total belief degrees and the overall performance can be generated for ranking and selecting projects. Finally, a case study on the R&D project selection for the National Science Foundation of China is conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. The data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model for project evaluation and selection (1) utilizes experimental data to represent experts' assessments by using belief distributions over the set of final funding outcomes, and through this historic statistics it helps experts and applicants to understand the funding probability to a given assessment grade, (2) implies the mapping relationships between the evaluation grades and the final funding outcomes by using historical data, and (3) provides a way to make fair decisions by taking experts' reliabilities into account. In the data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model, experts play different roles in accordance with their reliabilities which are determined by their previous review track records, and the selection process is made interpretable and fairer. The newly proposed model reduces the time-consuming panel review work for both managers and experts, and significantly improves the efficiency and quality of project selection process. Although the model is demonstrated for project selection in the NSFC, it can be generalized to other funding agencies or industries.Comment: 20 pages, forthcoming in International Journal of Project Management (2019

On fuzzy-qualitative descriptions and entropy

This paper models the assessments of a group of experts when evaluating different magnitudes, features or objects by using linguistic descriptions. A new general representation of linguistic descriptions is provided by unifying ordinal and fuzzy perspectives. Fuzzy qualitative labels are proposed as a generalization of the concept of qualitative labels over a well-ordered set. A lattice structure is established in the set of fuzzy-qualitative labels to enable the introduction of fuzzy-qualitative descriptions as L-fuzzy sets. A theorem is given that characterizes finite fuzzy partitions using fuzzy-qualitative labels, the cores and supports of which are qualitative labels. This theorem leads to a mathematical justification for commonly-used fuzzy partitions of real intervals via trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The information of a fuzzy-qualitative label is defined using a measure of specificity, in order to introduce the entropy of fuzzy-qualitative descriptions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

An evaluation methodology for ergonomic design of electronic consumer products based on fuzzy axiomatic design

This article is posted with permission of OCP Science imprint. Copyright @ 2008 Old City Publishing Group.The development life cycle of software and electronic products has been shortened by the growth of rapid prototyping techniques. The evaluation of electronic consumer products should consider hardware and software as well as the ergonomic usability, emotional appeal and aesthetic integrity of the design. This research follows a systematic approach to develop an evaluation methodology for electronic mobile products on ergonomic design. The proposed methodology is based on fuzzy multi attribute decision making and fuzzy axiomatic design realized in three steps; determination of ergonomic attributes for electronic consumer products, determination of a representative set of alternatives, and selection of the best alternative in terms of ergonomic design by utilizing fuzzy axiomatic design. A case study is also provided to support the proposed methodology

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis

A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the