872,150 research outputs found

    Complexity in decision-making - the case of Maasvlakte - Connecting decisions, arenas and actors in spatial decision-making

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    Decision-making about infrastructure is very complex. Decisions to develop the Rotterdam harbour are being taken in a network of local, regional and national actors and influenced by international actors (firms, NGO’s etc.) both public and private. This decision-making process shows a lot of uncertainty and complexity and the outcomes are of great importance for the development of the harbour. Network theory has been widely used to indicate, explain and manage uncertainty in decision-making processes. The theory is well equipped for empirical research and has shown many applicable results. The attention for influences from outside the network to decision-making inside the network is however still poorly developed. In the case of decision-making with a strong international component this is a handicap. In this paper the relation between influences from outside and decision-making inside networks is studied both theoretically and empirically. A distinction is made between locally bound and non-locally bound networks to theorise the complex decision-making process. The well-known scientific concept of space of flows versus space of places from Manuel Castells is used as an inspiration to describe the relation between the locally and non-locally bounded networks of decision making. The locally bounded network is formed by the formal decision making process between the governmental and non-governmental organisations in countries, regions and municipalities. The non-locally bounded networks exist of organizations that are footloose and act globally mainly according to economic principals. The concept of inclusion is used to analyse the various actors in the decision-making process. The paper starts with the description of the external influences in port areas in general. The balance between the influence of local and non-local bounded networks depends on the multiple-inclusion of the different actors in the decision-making process in both networks. In areas in which many actors are included in the place-bounded networks, the external influences can be expected to be marginal. The port area of Rotterdam is a node in international networks and so the hypothesis can be set that in the Rotterdam port area the influence of actors mainly included in non-place bounded networks is significant in decision making networks. To explore this assumption various networks, which are relevant for decision-making about spatial issues in the Rotterdam port are identified and the differences in inclusion of the relevant actors is analysed. By means of the analysis of perceptions of the various actors (locally bound or non-locally bound) and their strategic choices and decisions we show that notions on international port development are being interpreted and transformed quite differently by the various actors. This first part of analysis highlights the possible gap between the awareness of the various actors of the non-locally bounded networks and their translation into their strategies in local bounded networks. We also trace difference of perceptions and strategies between actors who solely operate in locally bound networks and actors who are both included in locally and non-locally bound networks (like shipping firms etc). This second part of analysis indicates if there are differences in what the actors use as input for their respective positions in the decision-making networks. The paper shows that the influence of external developments in non-locally bound networks manifests itself in locally bound networks but is transformed and interpreted in many ways by the different actors. The paper ends with some conclusions about decision-making on large ports and the possibilities to influence this complex decision-making process that takes place in locally bound and non-locally bounded networks at the same time.

    Interference Effects in Quantum Belief Networks

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    Probabilistic graphical models such as Bayesian Networks are one of the most powerful structures known by the Computer Science community for deriving probabilistic inferences. However, modern cognitive psychology has revealed that human decisions could not follow the rules of classical probability theory, because humans cannot process large amounts of data in order to make judgements. Consequently, the inferences performed are based on limited data coupled with several heuristics, leading to violations of the law of total probability. This means that probabilistic graphical models based on classical probability theory are too limited to fully simulate and explain various aspects of human decision making. Quantum probability theory was developed in order to accommodate the paradoxical findings that the classical theory could not explain. Recent findings in cognitive psychology revealed that quantum probability can fully describe human decisions in an elegant framework. Their findings suggest that, before taking a decision, human thoughts are seen as superposed waves that can interfere with each other, influencing the final decision. In this work, we propose a new Bayesian Network based on the psychological findings of cognitive scientists. We made experiments with two very well known Bayesian Networks from the literature. The results obtained revealed that the quantum like Bayesian Network can affect drastically the probabilistic inferences, specially when the levels of uncertainty of the network are very high (no pieces of evidence observed). When the levels of uncertainty are very low, then the proposed quantum like network collapses to its classical counterpart

    Collective stability of networks of winner-take-all circuits

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    The neocortex has a remarkably uniform neuronal organization, suggesting that common principles of processing are employed throughout its extent. In particular, the patterns of connectivity observed in the superficial layers of the visual cortex are consistent with the recurrent excitation and inhibitory feedback required for cooperative-competitive circuits such as the soft winner-take-all (WTA). WTA circuits offer interesting computational properties such as selective amplification, signal restoration, and decision making. But, these properties depend on the signal gain derived from positive feedback, and so there is a critical trade-off between providing feedback strong enough to support the sophisticated computations, while maintaining overall circuit stability. We consider the question of how to reason about stability in very large distributed networks of such circuits. We approach this problem by approximating the regular cortical architecture as many interconnected cooperative-competitive modules. We demonstrate that by properly understanding the behavior of this small computational module, one can reason over the stability and convergence of very large networks composed of these modules. We obtain parameter ranges in which the WTA circuit operates in a high-gain regime, is stable, and can be aggregated arbitrarily to form large stable networks. We use nonlinear Contraction Theory to establish conditions for stability in the fully nonlinear case, and verify these solutions using numerical simulations. The derived bounds allow modes of operation in which the WTA network is multi-stable and exhibits state-dependent persistent activities. Our approach is sufficiently general to reason systematically about the stability of any network, biological or technological, composed of networks of small modules that express competition through shared inhibition.Comment: 7 Figure

    Integrating big data into a sustainable mobility policy 2.0 planning support system

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    It is estimated that each of us, on a daily basis, produces a bit more than 1 GB of digital content through our mobile phone and social networks activities, bank card payments, location-based positioning information, online activities, etc. However, the implementation of these large data amounts in city assets planning systems still remains a rather abstract idea for several reasons, including the fact that practical examples are still very strongly services-oriented, and are a largely unexplored and interdisciplinary field; hence, missing the cross-cutting dimension. In this paper, we describe the Policy 2.0 concept and integrate user generated content into Policy 2.0 platform for sustainable mobility planning. By means of a real-life example, we demonstrate the applicability of such a big data integration approach to smart cities planning process. Observed benefits range from improved timeliness of the data and reduced duration of the planning cycle to more informed and agile decision making, on both the citizens and the city planners end. The integration of big data into the planning process, at this stage, does not have uniform impact across all levels of decision making and planning process, therefore it should be performed gradually and with full awareness of existing limitations

    Poverty and public celebrations in rural India

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    The author examines the paradox of very poor households, spending large sums on celebrations. Using qualitative, and quantitative data from South India, the author demonstrates that spending on weddings, and festivals can be explained by integrating an anthropological understanding of how identity is shaped in Indian society, with an economic analysis of decision-making under conditions of extreme poverty, and risk. The author argues that publicly observable celebrations have two functions: they provide a space for maintaining social reputations, and webs of obligation, and, they serve as arenas for status-making competitions. The first role is central to maintaining the networks essential for social relationships, and coping with poverty. The second is a correlate of mobility that may become more prevalent as incomes rise. Development policies that favor individual over collective action, reduce the incentives for the networking function, and increase the incentives for status-enhancing functions - thus reducing social cohesion, and increasing conspicuous consumption. Market-driven improvements in urban employment, for example, could reduce a family's dependence on its traditional networks, could reduce incentives to maintain these networks, and could reduce social cohesion within a village, and thus its capacity for collective action. In contrast, micro-finance programs, and social funds try to retain, and even build a community's capacity for collective action.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Anthropology,Education and Society,Health Economics&Finance

    Recent Trends in Big Data Analytics and Role in Business Decision Making

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    In this information overload era, we can see that a large amount of data has been available for everyone, and it helps business organizations to take strategic decisions. The rapid increase of internet and digital marketing has made increased in demand for data. And we can see that the volume of the data is very high which can't be handled using traditional systems. Data has become more valuable nowadays for organizations because of the valuable insights in the data. Present we can see that every day millions of data was generated through our daily transactions to customer interactions and various social media networks. As we can that data is of various types like structured, and unstructured data, the data need to be cleaned and it should be converted into meaningful information for the organizations. In this paper, we are focusing on how big data will show an impact on business decision-making, and how big data will play a crucial role in the decision-making process

    Requirements for traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning: A critical assessment

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    Transport planning models are used all over the world to assist in the decision making regarding investments in infrastructure and transport services. Traffic assignment is one of the key components of transport models, which relate travel demand to infrastructure supply, by simulating (future) route choices and network conditions, resulting in traffic flows, congestion, travel times, and emissions. Cost benefit analyses rely on outcomes of such models, and since very large monetary investments are at stake, these outcomes should be as accurate and reliable as possible. However, the vast majority of strategic transport models still use traditional static traffic assignment procedures with travel time functions in which traffic flow can exceed capacity, delays are predicted in the wrong locations, and intersections are not properly handled. On the other hand, microscopic dynamic traffic simulation models can simulate traffic very realistically, but are not able to deal with very large networks and may not have the capability of providing robust results for scenario analysis. In this paper we discuss and identify the important characteristics of traffic assignment models for transport planning. We propose a modelling framework in which the traffic assignment model exhibits a good balance between traffic flow realism, robustness, consistency, accountability, and ease of use. Furthermore, case studies on several large networks of Dutch and Australian cities will be presented

    Networks and Fault Lines

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    The changing role of housing associations in neighbourhood regeneration This study aims to increase our understanding of the role of social housing organisations in neighbourhood regeneration governance networks, in order to enhance the performance and outcomes of these networks. Our understanding of how governance networks work is still limited, especially concerning the role of non-state actors like housing associations. Hierarchical government steering is increasingly mixed with market mechanisms and networked forms of decision-making. These shifts in governance often result in more complex decision-making that can easily lead to deadlocks, low-quality outcomes and ambiguous anchorage of democratic principles. Neighbourhood regeneration takes place in rather exceptional governance networks. The organisations involved, and the problems at hand, are place-based. Actors, like housing associations, local authorities and community organisations, are more or less ‘locked’ into the regeneration network and need to collaborate in order to solve the problems. The complexity of neighbourhood renewal processes is often very high, due to the large number of actors involved, and the combination of insufficient housing quality, lack of affordability and supply, along with social and economic problems that need to be addressed. Housing associations focus on the delivery of affordable decent quality housing; but, in many countries—like the Netherlands and England—these organisations also have an important role in neighbourhood regeneration. Housing associations are non-profit organisations that provide housing for low and moderate-income households. They operate largely autonomously from the government, although they are often strongly regulated and dependent on government subsidies. Housing associations in England and the Netherlands share many organisational characteristics and hybrid third-sector values emerging from the need to balance social and economic objectives. They have largely similar tasks and responsibilities, but work in very divergent contexts. This study devotes careful attention to the contingencies of time and place of decisionmaking in order to regenerate insights that are also relevant outside the case-study areas. Therefore, this study places Dutch and English housing associations in their respective political economies, welfare regimes and rental housing systems. The study also highlights the ambiguous position—between state, market, and society—of housing associations. Neighbourhood regeneration evolved from slum clearance and complete area redevelopment in the 1950s and 1960s, towards more integral place-based approaches—in the 1970s and 1980s—with a stronger emphasis on improving the existing housing stock and involving local communities. The nature of the involvement of housing associations in neighbourhood regeneration has changed over time in response to government policies, public opinion, their own strategies, and the strategies of their umbrella organisations. In both England and the Netherlands, their increasingly prominent role —especially after the start of the new millennium—was driven by pressures on housing associations to take a leading role in neighbourhood regeneration. A governance network perspective on neighbourhood regeneration The emergence of the ‘network society’ has led to a fragmentation of power and resources. This fragmentation has led to increased interdependence of actors; public, private and community actors need to collaborate to solve problems. This study uses a governance network approach to explore the complexity and uncertainties involved in neighbourhood regeneration decision-making. The study explores five interrelated questions [see Chapter 1, §1.2], each related to a component of a theoretical framework on decision-making in a network setting. These questions involve context, networks, actors, processes and outcomes. In order to answer the research questions, a qualitative, comparative, longitudinal exploration based on a case study methodology, was conducted. To ensure that comparable cases were explored, similar ‘focal actors’ were chosen (i.e. housing associations), as well as similar ‘policy outputs’ as starting points for the study (i.e. the drafting of neighbourhood regeneration plans). Based on these criteria, housing association Midland Heart, and the neighbourhood Lozells in North/West Birmingham, was selected as the English case study. In the Netherlands, housing association De Huismeesters, and De Hoogte, a neighbourhood in Groningen, were selected. Personal accounts have been an important data source for this study; 70 interviews with 45 different individuals were conducted between 2007 and 2014 in Groningen, and Birmingham. In addition, for the case study in The Hague (Chapter 5), around 25 interviews were conducted in 2004. That chapter was a first introduction to the explanatory capabilities of the network governance perspective. Research results The introductory chapter explores contextual factors—such as economic, social and political developments—that affect the role of housing associations in neighbourhood regeneration. Chapters 3 through 7 contain sections which describe the context relevant to that specific chapter. Chapter 8 is more reflective in nature and discusses the impact of post-crisis ‘Big Society’ (UK), and Participation Society (NL) government policies, as contingency factors for the role of housing associations in relation to local communities. Finally, Chapter 9 brings all the components of the theoretical framework together and especially reflects on the significant impact of contextual developments on the role played by housing associations in neighbourhood regeneration decision-making, and delivery. This research also highlighted the strong network relationships between housing associations and local authorities, but also revealed the often troublesome interactions between housing associations and residents. The title of this thesis: “Networks and Fault lines” is intended to reflect this. This research took place in a period of unexpectedly dynamic economic, social and political developments, i.e. the global financial crisis, the housing-market downturn, government austerity, and a more restricted interpretation of the state’s role in delivering welfare services. The impacts of these developments varied across the two cases. The Dutch housing association proved more resilient to contextual developments than its English counterpart; especially its ability to continue the neighbourhood investment programme. National government funding was less important to the Dutch housing association: the organisation already had access to neighbourhood regeneration investment resources. Other contextual factors, such as the characteristics of the national political economies, welfare and housing systems, indirectly affected the role played by housing associations. These factors mainly influenced the characteristics of the governance networks and the decision-making processes within these networks. Explored through the networks component are the characteristics of the governance networks that housing associations participate in: interdependencies, strength of network relations, and the nature of the coordination mechanisms that underline decision-making. The key concepts to exploring networks are introduced in Chapter 2, and further developed in Chapters 3, 5 and 7. We found high levels of uncertainty, generated by the variety of, and the interdependencies between, actors, the closed-mindedness of actors to the arguments of other parties, and the changes in composition of the governance network. For example, the research found substantial cross-national differences, and indications that network characteristics change and fluctuate over time. In contrast to the situation in Groningen, the dependency of the Birmingham network on external government funding negatively affected the stability and the performance of that network. In Groningen, top-down government intervention also negatively affected the stability of the network, but for other reasons. The, short-lived, abundance of resources for regeneration led to such a high number of new actors, issues, goals and decision-making arenas that the governance network was unable to function properly for some time. The network actors increased the complexity of policy games of their own volition. Sometimes, this was induced by the national government, when local network actors responded to steering instruments such as government subsidies. This led to more network complexity and dynamics in the form of new goals, network actors and decision-making arenas. The third research component—the actors— explored the perceptions and objectives of housing associations, and other key network actors concerning neighbourhood regeneration investments and activities. Housing associations in both case-study areas took a prominent role in neighbourhood regeneration activities, and collaborated closely with local authority departments in drafting regeneration plans. The housing associations regarded improving the quality and variety of the local housing stock as an important element in creating a more mixed community, and retaining and attracting more affluent households. The local authorities supported this predominantly longterm ambition. Residents were more concerned with tackling short-term liveability issues, such as anti-social behaviour, crime and litter. The role of housing associations changed during the 2007-2014 fieldwork period. From occupying a leading role in the regeneration process—in partnership with the local authority—at the start of the exploration in 2007, this role transformed into a more facilitating and supporting role. This appears to have been brought about by two related factors: a serious decline in available regeneration resources, and an increased emphasis on the responsibilities of individual residents and local communities under the influence of the Participation Society agenda, in the Netherlands, and the Localism agenda in England. Residents and private-sector organisations were rarely directly involved in regeneration decision-making. With a little hindsight, one could formulate the contention that these actors were not fully represented in the governance network because the incumbent network actors (i.e. the housing associations and local authorities) chose the devil they knew. They opted for state involvement to acquire investment resources, rather than facing the uncertainties that would have resulted from expanding the network to include residents and private-sector organisations as full and mature network actors. Decision-making processes constitute the fourth component of this study. It explored the decision-making interactions inside the neighbourhood regeneration networks, with a special focus on the interaction strategies used by housing associations. This study found that housing associations in the Groningen and Birmingham cases had a prominent and often leading role in the policy arenas where regeneration policies were developed. National governments in both countries had a strong impact on how these processes evolved, leveraged by the alluring investment resources offered by national regeneration programmes, and the preconditions accompanying these resources. Decision-making took place in arenas that almost exclusively consisted of housing association and local authority professionals. Residents were largely given a consumerist role in the process: their views on neighbourhood needs were collected through various instruments to involve residents, such as surveys and street interviews. Their views were, implicitly, taken into account in the decision-making. Residents were most often not part of these processes and not involved in the development of regeneration investments plans. Not all decision-making arenas were closed to residents. The housing associations in both case-study areas did involve residents as co-decision-makers in more ‘hands-on’ neighbourhood issues such as improving playareas, tackling garbage and litter problems. Decision-making conflicts and deadlocks were rather limited in the investigated governance networks. There was a strong impetus for the housing associations and the local authorities to reach agreements: no consensus would very likely mean no national government funding. Housing associations and local authorities used rather traditional instruments to facilitate decision-making, such as limiting the number of actors involved, and enforcing strict time constraints on decision-making processes. Outcomes are the fifth and last component of this study. In this component we explored how the network—and housing associations in particular—contributed to decision-making and neighbourhood regeneration outcomes. It is evident that the housing associations in the case-study areas contributed significantly to neighbourhood regeneration activities, not only because they channelled considerable investments into the areas, but also due to their strong network relations and frequent interactions with government agencies and local communities. The actions of network actors have improved the quality of some parts of the housing stock. Joint projects have been delivered to improve the public realm and contribute to neighbourhood safety. The research found that actors used very divergent process, input, output and outcome yardsticks to measure success, ranging from the number of projects and activities started, to the amount of money spent, the increase in resident satisfaction, the number of decision-making conflicts overcome, and the improvement achieved in quality-of-life indicators. These yardsticks changed over time and varied from actor to actor. This demonstrated how fluid the assessment of regeneration outcomes can be. New rounds of decision-making, as well as new network actors, led to a review of old decisions, sometimes with a different assessment of the outcomes achieved. Challenges for governance network approaches The governance network perspective has supported the exploration of the role played by housing associations in neighbourhood regeneration decision-making. It has increased our understanding of the complexity and the uncertainties involved in networked forms of decision-making. Governance network theory helped us identify instruments and strategies used by housing associations and local authorities to support regeneration decision-making. The governance network perspective is a rather new academic discipline that can be further developed. This study contributed to this development by addressing some issues and challenges; firstly, the role of residents in decision-making arenas, and secondly, the assessment of governance network outcomes. The theoretical and methodological implications of residents as neighbourhood regeneration co-producers Policy-makers expect a more active role of residents and local communities in the co-production of neighbourhood regeneration. This more inclusive approach may contribute to the quality and legitimacy of decisions made in governance networks, but the efficiency of decision-making will most probably not benefit. The trade-off between efficiency and legitimacy that arises from increased resident involvement is a challenge that calls for the further development of the governance network theory. This research suggests several avenues that could be followed to address this challenge. Firstly, a more extensive use of Habermas’s Theory of Communicative Action, as explored in Chapter 8, might be undertaken to supplement the governance network theory. Secondly, more use could be made of the body of knowledge and theories developed in England during the New Labour government (1997-2010), which was often explicitly concerned with networks that linked governments with citizens and local communities [see Chapter 9]. The assessment of governance network outcomes Co-production of neighbourhood regeneration can lead to more democratic and inclusive approaches to decision-making. This is likely to result in better outcomes, but not necessarily in greater consensus among the actors involved. Within network governance approaches, there is a tendency to define satisfactory outcomes as those that enjoy the greatest joint support of the actors involved in the process. More inclusive approaches, which engage a wider range of actors, might appear to be less successful as the benchmark of satisfaction is raised to include a wider range of preferences and experiences. Therefore, we need a more refined assessment of outcomes produced by increasingly heterogeneous networks. Governance network approaches could develop methods – or develop connections with other theories and methodologies – that help evaluate the success of governance networks by combining substantive regeneration outcomes, actor and stakeholder satisfaction, and network learning. Preventing ‘cherry picking’ in the use of assessment yardsticks is essential, given the disinclination of actors to closely scrutinise the outcomes produced by governance networks (as found in this research). Further development of network governance approaches may increase our understanding of how actors construct the yardsticks to evaluate success, and provide tools to facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of network outcomes [See chapter 9]. Housing associations as champions of networks in vulnerable neighbourhoods This research demonstrated that housing associations can play an important stabilising and cohesion-enhancing role in neighbourhood regeneration networks. Their interests are vested in the value of the local housing stock, and this financial incentive secures some level of commitment to vulnerable neighbourhoods. Their hybrid characteristics enable housing associations to collaborate with community, market and government organisations. Moreover, their professional capabilities and their relatively-easy access to resources allow them to champion neighbourhood needs, in cases where communities lack the capacity or cohesiveness to champion their own. Using the leeway that housing associations have, as a hybrid organisation, is an extremely delicate exercise. They should seek a balance between the very different and variable expectations of the outside world. This balancing act is only attainable when housing associations can combine proficiency in network management, with increased accountability. Each neighbourhood is different, and housing associations should take a role that is appropriate to each neighbourhood. To do this, they should increase their knowledge of the neighbourhood challenges and assess the capabilities of residents and the local community to address these problems. Housing associations can support the development of governance networks to address these problems by helping craft networks in such a way that they include all relevant parties, and by providing small but stable funding to support network development and by improving accountability in decision-making processes. There are strong arguments for housing associations to take a central role in neighbourhood regeneration. Housing associations are among the most prominent frontline agencies supporting vulnerable people and places. Through their housing stock, they are literally ‘anchored’ in the most deprived communities. Housing associations should not become the ‘jack-of-all-trades’ in neighbourhood regeneration, but can help develop, nurture and maintain well-functioning and stable regeneration networks which vulnerable neighbourhoods need. Housing associations can be the long-haul champion that neighbourhoods and local communities need
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