Selection of simulation variance reduction techniques through a fuzzy expert system

In this thesis, the design and development of a decision support system for the selection of a variance reduction technique for discrete event simulation studies is presented. In addition, the performance of variance reduction techniques as stand alone and combined application has been investigated. The aim of this research is to mimic the process of human decision making through an expert system and also handle the ambiguity associated with representing human expert knowledge through fuzzy logic. The result is a fuzzy expert system which was subjected to three different validation tests, the main objective being to establish the reasonableness of the systems output. Although these validation tests are among the most widely accepted tests for fuzzy expert systems, the overall results were not in agreement with expectations. In addition, results from the stand alone and combined application of variance reduction techniques, demonstrated that more instances of stand alone applications performed better at reducing variance than the combined application. The design and development of a fuzzy expert system as an advisory tool to aid simulation users, constitutes a significant contribution to the selection of variance reduction technique(s), for discrete event simulation studies. This is a novelty because it demonstrates the practicalities involved in the design and development process, which can be used on similar decision making problems by discrete event simulation researchers and practitioners using their own knowledge and experience. In addition, the application of a fuzzy expert system to this particular discrete event simulation problem, demonstrates the flexibility and usability of an alternative to the existing algorithmic approach. Under current experimental conditions, a new specific class of systems, in particular the Crossdocking Distribution System has been identified, for which the application of variance reduction techniques, i.e. Antithetic Variates and Control Variates are beneficial for variance reduction

Selection of simulation variance reduction techniques through a fuzzy expert system

In this thesis, the design and development of a decision support system for the selection of a variance reduction technique for discrete event simulation studies is presented. In addition, the performance of variance reduction techniques as stand alone and combined application has been investigated. The aim of this research is to mimic the process of human decision making through an expert system and also handle the ambiguity associated with representing human expert knowledge through fuzzy logic. The result is a fuzzy expert system which was subjected to three different validation tests, the main objective being to establish the reasonableness of the systems output. Although these validation tests are among the most widely accepted tests for fuzzy expert systems, the overall results were not in agreement with expectations. In addition, results from the stand alone and combined application of variance reduction techniques, demonstrated that more instances of stand alone applications performed better at reducing variance than the combined application. The design and development of a fuzzy expert system as an advisory tool to aid simulation users, constitutes a significant contribution to the selection of variance reduction technique(s), for discrete event simulation studies. This is a novelty because it demonstrates the practicalities involved in the design and development process, which can be used on similar decision making problems by discrete event simulation researchers and practitioners using their own knowledge and experience. In addition, the application of a fuzzy expert system to this particular discrete event simulation problem, demonstrates the flexibility and usability of an alternative to the existing algorithmic approach. Under current experimental conditions, a new specific class of systems, in particular the Crossdocking Distribution System has been identified, for which the application of variance reduction techniques, i.e. Antithetic Variates and Control Variates are beneficial for variance reduction

Artificial Neural Networks in Production Scheduling and Yield Prediction of Semiconductor Wafer Fabrication System

With the development of artificial intelligence, the artificial neural networks (ANN) are widely used in the control, decision‐making and prediction of complex discrete event manufacturing systems. Wafer fabrication is one of the most complicated and high competence manufacturing phases. The production scheduling and yield prediction are two critical issues in the operation of semiconductor wafer fabrication system (SWFS). This chapter proposed two fuzzy neural networks for the production rescheduling strategy decision and the die yield prediction. Firstly, a fuzzy neural network (FNN)‐based rescheduling decision model is implemented, which can rapidly choose an optimized rescheduling strategy to schedule the semiconductor wafer fabrication lines according to the current system disturbances. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed FNN‐based rescheduling decision mechanism approach over the alternatives (back‐propagation neural network and Multivariate regression). Secondly, a novel fuzzy neural network‐based yield prediction model is proposed to improve prediction accuracy of die yield in which the impact factors of yield and critical electrical test parameters are considered simultaneously and are taken as independent variables. The comparison experiment verifies the proposed yield prediction method improves on three traditional yield prediction methods with respect to prediction accuracy

Diagnosability of Fuzzy Discrete Event Systems

In order to more effectively cope with the real-world problems of vagueness, {\it fuzzy discrete event systems} (FDESs) were proposed recently, and the supervisory control theory of FDESs was developed. In view of the importance of failure diagnosis, in this paper, we present an approach of the failure diagnosis in the framework of FDESs. More specifically: (1) We formalize the definition of diagnosability for FDESs, in which the observable set and failure set of events are {\it fuzzy}, that is, each event has certain degree to be observable and unobservable, and, also, each event may possess different possibility of failure occurring. (2) Through the construction of observability-based diagnosers of FDESs, we investigate its some basic properties. In particular, we present a necessary and sufficient condition for diagnosability of FDESs. (3) Some examples serving to illuminate the applications of the diagnosability of FDESs are described. To conclude, some related issues are raised for further consideration.Comment: 14 pages; revisions have been mad

Integration of e-business strategy for multi-lifecycle production systems

Internet use has grown exponentially on the last few years becoming a global communication and business resource. Internet-based business, or e-Business will truly affect every sector of the economy in ways that today we can only imagine. The manufacturing sector will be at the forefront of this change. This doctoral dissertation provides a scientific framework and a set of novel decision support tools for evaluating, modeling, and optimizing the overall performance of e-Business integrated multi-lifecycle production systems. The characteristics of this framework include environmental lifecycle study, environmental performance metrics, hyper-network model of integrated e-supply chain networks, fuzzy multi-objective optimization method, discrete-event simulation approach, and scalable enterprise environmental management system design. The dissertation research reveals that integration of e-Business strategy into production systems can alter current industry practices along a pathway towards sustainability, enhancing resource productivity, improving cost efficiencies and reducing lifecycle environmental impacts. The following research challenges and scholarly accomplishments have been addressed in this dissertation: Identification and analysis of environmental impacts of e-Business. A pioneering environmental lifecycle study on the impact of e-Business is conducted, and fuzzy decision theory is further applied to evaluate e-Business scenarios in order to overcome data uncertainty and information gaps; Understanding, evaluation, and development of environmental performance metrics. Major environmental performance metrics are compared and evaluated. A universal target-based performance metric, developed jointly with a team of industry and university researchers, is evaluated, implemented, and utilized in the methodology framework; Generic framework of integrated e-supply chain network. The framework is based on the most recent research on large complex supply chain network model, but extended to integrate demanufacturers, recyclers, and resellers as supply chain partners. Moreover, The e-Business information network is modeled as a overlaid hypernetwork layer for the supply chain; Fuzzy multi-objective optimization theory and discrete-event simulation methods. The solution methods deal with overall system parameter trade-offs, partner selections, and sustainable decision-making; Architecture design for scalable enterprise environmental management system. This novel system is designed and deployed using knowledge-based ontology theory, and XML techniques within an agent-based structure. The implementation model and system prototype are also provided. The new methodology and framework have the potential of being widely used in system analysis, design and implementation of e-Business enabled engineering systems

Analysis, filtering, and control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models in networked systems

Copyright © 2015 Sunjie Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.The fuzzy logic theory has been proven to be effective in dealing with various nonlinear systems and has a great success in industry applications. Among different kinds of models for fuzzy systems, the so-called Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model has been quite popular due to its convenient and simple dynamic structure as well as its capability of approximating any smooth nonlinear function to any specified accuracy within any compact set. In terms of such a model, the performance analysis and the design of controllers and filters play important roles in the research of fuzzy systems. In this paper, we aim to survey some recent advances on the T-S fuzzy control and filtering problems with various network-induced phenomena. The network-induced phenomena under consideration mainly include communication delays, packet dropouts, signal quantization, and randomly occurring uncertainties (ROUs). With such network-induced phenomena, the developments on T-S fuzzy control and filtering issues are reviewed in detail. In addition, some latest results on this topic are highlighted. In the end, conclusions are drawn and some possible future research directions are pointed out.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61134009, 61329301, 11301118 and 61174136, the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China under Grant BK20130017, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under Grant CUSF-DH-D-2013061, the Royal Society of the U.K., and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems