Order-of-Magnitude Influence Diagrams

In this paper, we develop a qualitative theory of influence diagrams that can be used to model and solve sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative (or imprecise) information is available. Our approach is based on an order-of-magnitude approximation of both probabilities and utilities and allows for specifying partially ordered preferences via sets of utility values. We also propose a dedicated variable elimination algorithm that can be applied for solving order-of-magnitude influence diagrams

Directed expected utility networks

A variety of statistical graphical models have been defined to represent the conditional independences underlying a random vector of interest. Similarly, many different graphs embedding various types of preferential independences, such as, for example, conditional utility independence and generalized additive independence, have more recently started to appear. In this paper, we define a new graphical model, called a directed expected utility network, whose edges depict both probabilistic and utility conditional independences. These embed a very flexible class of utility models, much larger than those usually conceived in standard influence diagrams. Our graphical representation and various transformations of the original graph into a tree structure are then used to guide fast routines for the computation of a decision problem’s expected utilities. We show that our routines generalize those usually utilized in standard influence diagrams’ evaluations under much more restrictive conditions. We then proceed with the construction of a directed expected utility network to support decision makers in the domain of household food security