Modelling fraud detection by attack trees and Choquet integral

Modelling an attack tree is basically a matter of associating a logical ÒndÓand a logical ÒrÓ but in most of real world applications related to fraud management the Ònd/orÓlogic is not adequate to effectively represent the relationship between a parent node and its children, most of all when information about attributes is associated to the nodes and the main problem to solve is how to promulgate attribute values up the tree through recursive aggregation operations occurring at the Ònd/orÓnodes. OWA-based aggregations have been introduced to generalize ÒndÓand ÒrÓoperators starting from the observation that in between the extremes Òor allÓ(and) and Òor anyÓ(or), terms (quantifiers) like ÒeveralÓ ÒostÓ ÒewÓ ÒomeÓ etc. can be introduced to represent the different weights associated to the nodes in the aggregation. The aggregation process taking place at an OWA node depends on the ordered position of the child nodes but it doesnÕ take care of the possible interactions between the nodes. In this paper, we propose to overcome this drawback introducing the Choquet integral whose distinguished feature is to be able to take into account the interaction between nodes. At first, the attack tree is valuated recursively through a bottom-up algorithm whose complexity is linear versus the number of nodes and exponential for every node. Then, the algorithm is extended assuming that the attribute values in the leaves are unimodal LR fuzzy numbers and the calculation of Choquet integral is carried out using the alpha-cuts.Fraud detection; attack tree; ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator; Choquet integral; fuzzy numbers.

A statistical inference method for the stochastic reachability analysis.

The main contribution of this paper is the characterization of reachability problem associated to stochastic hybrid systems in terms of imprecise probabilities. This provides the connection between reachability problem and Bayesian statistics. Using generalised Bayesian statistical inference, a new concept of conditional reach set probabilities is defined. Then possible algorithms to compute the reach set probabilities are derived

Preference Rapresentation for Multicriteria Decision Making

In this note we consider a multicriteria decision problem where the decision maker know the the state of the world but the set of consequences is multidimensional. We suppose that a value function is specified over the attribute of the decision problem and we analyze some classes of non additive functions that can represent interaction between criteria.Multicriteria decision making, value functions, Choquet signed integral, Schur decreasing functions. functions

VR-PMS: a new approach for performance measurement and management of industrial systems

A new performance measurement and management framework based on value and risk is proposed. The proposed framework is applied to the modelling and evaluation of the a priori performance evaluation of manufacturing processes and to deciding on their alternatives. For this reason, it consistently integrates concepts relevant to objectives, activity, and risk in a single framework comprising a conceptual value/risk model, and it conceptualises the idea of value- and risk based performance management in a process context. In addition, a methodological framework is developed to provide guidelines for the decision-makers or performance evaluators of the processes. To facilitate the performance measurement and management process, this latter framework is organized in four phases: context establishment, performance modelling, performance assessment, and decision-making. Each phase of the framework is then instrumented with state of-the-art quantitative analysis tools and methods. For process design and evaluation, the deliverable of the value- and risk-based performance measurement and management system (VR-PMS) is a set of ranked solutions (i.e. alternative business processes) evaluated against the developed value and risk indicators. The proposed VR-PMS is illustrated with a case study from discrete parts manufacturing but is indeed applicable to a wide range of processes or systems

Contextual algorithm for decision of fuzzy estimation problems with network-like structure of criteria on the basis of fuzzy measures Sugeno

In this article the algorithm for the decision of alternatives' estimation problems for following conditions is considered. Values of alternative's characteristics (properties) are fuzzy. They are formalized as fuzzy sets. The estimation criteria structure is network-like and is formalized as the oriented graph with one source and many drains. The alternative's estimation result is calculated in criterion-source. Connections between criteria are formalized by fuzzy measures Sugeno. Upper-level criteria are considered as contexts for lower-level criteria. Fuzzy integrals Sugeno or Choquet are used as aggregation operator. In article also the properties of fuzzy measure and fuzzy integrals (Sugeno and Choquet) are analyzed. Properties of fuzzy measure and integrals are comparing with properties of other mathematical tools. As example the car's estimation problem is presented.fuzzy measure (Sugeno); fuzzy integral (Sugeno and Choquet); alternatives estimation; criteria structure

Fuzzy measures and integrals in MCDA

This chapter aims at a unified presentation of various methods of MCDA based onfuzzy measures (capacity) and fuzzy integrals, essentially the Choquet andSugeno integral. A first section sets the position of the problem ofmulticriteria decision making, and describes the various possible scales ofmeasurement (difference, ratio, and ordinal). Then a whole section is devotedto each case in detail: after introducing necessary concepts, the methodologyis described, and the problem of the practical identification of fuzzy measuresis given. The important concept of interaction between criteria, central inthis chapter, is explained in details. It is shown how it leads to k-additivefuzzy measures. The case of bipolar scales leads to thegeneral model based on bi-capacities, encompassing usual models based oncapacities. A general definition of interaction for bipolar scales isintroduced. The case of ordinal scales leads to the use of Sugeno integral, andits symmetrized version when one considers symmetric ordinal scales. Apractical methodology for the identification of fuzzy measures in this contextis given. Lastly, we give a short description of some practical applications.Choquet integral; fuzzy measure; interaction; bi-capacities

Representation of maxitive measures: an overview

Idempotent integration is an analogue of Lebesgue integration where $\sigma$-maxitive measures replace $\sigma$-additive measures. In addition to reviewing and unifying several Radon--Nikodym like theorems proven in the literature for the idempotent integral, we also prove new results of the same kind.Comment: 40 page

Intangibles mismeasurements, synergy, and accounting numbers : a note.

For the last two decades, authors (e.g. Ohlson, 1995; Lev, 2000, 2001) have regularly pointed out the enforcement of limitations by traditional accounting frameworks on financial reporting informativeness. Consistent with this claim, it has been then argued that accounting finds one of its major limits in not allowing for direct recognition of synergy occurring amongst the firm intangible and tangible items (Casta, 1994; Casta & Lesage, 2001). Although the firm synergy phenomenon has been widely documented in the recent accounting literature (see for instance, Hand & Lev, 2004; Lev, 2001) research hitherto has failed to provide a clear approach to assess directly and account for such a henceforth fundamental corporate factor. The objective of this paper is to raise and examine, but not address exhaustively, the specific issues induced by modelling the synergy occurring amongst the firm assets whilst pointing out the limits of traditional accounting valuation tools. Since financial accounting valuation methods are mostly based on the mathematical property of additivity, and consequently may occult the perspective of regarding the firm as an organized set of assets, we propose an alternative valuation approach based on non-additive measures issued from the Choquet's (1953) and Sugeno's (1997) framework. More precisely, we show how this integration technique with respect to a non-additive measure can be used to cope with either positive or negative synergy in a firm value-building process and then discuss its potential future implications for financial reporting.Financial reporting; accounting goodwill; assets synergy; non-additive measures; Choquet’s framework;