22,298 research outputs found

    ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

    Get PDF
    B

    Decision-Making with Belief Functions: a Review

    Get PDF
    Approaches to decision-making under uncertainty in the belief function framework are reviewed. Most methods are shown to blend criteria for decision under ignorance with the maximum expected utility principle of Bayesian decision theory. A distinction is made between methods that construct a complete preference relation among acts, and those that allow incomparability of some acts due to lack of information. Methods developed in the imprecise probability framework are applicable in the Dempster-Shafer context and are also reviewed. Shafer's constructive decision theory, which substitutes the notion of goal for that of utility, is described and contrasted with other approaches. The paper ends by pointing out the need to carry out deeper investigation of fundamental issues related to decision-making with belief functions and to assess the descriptive, normative and prescriptive values of the different approaches

    Optimisation under uncertainty applied to a bridge collision problem

    Get PDF
    We consider the problem of modelling the load on a bridge pillar when hit by a vehicle. This load depends on a number of uncertain variables, such as the mass of the vehicle and its speed on impact. The objective of our study is to analyse their effect on the load. More specifically, we are interested in finding the minimum distance of the pillar to the side of the road passing under the bridge such that a given constraint on the load is satisfied in 99% of impact cases, i.e., such that the probability of satisfying the constraint is 0.99. In addition, we look for solutions to the following optimisation problem: find the distance that minimises a given cost function while still satisfying a given constraint on the load. This optimisation problem under uncertain constraints is not a well-posed problem, so we turn it into a decision problem under uncertainty. For both problems, we consider two typical cases. In the first, so-called precise-probability case, all uncertain variables involved are modelled using probability distributions, and in the second, so-called imprecise-probability case, the uncertainty for at least some of the variables (in casu the mass) is modelled by an interval of possible values, which is a special imprecise-probabilistic model. In the first case, we compute the joint distribution using simple Monte Carlo simulation, and in the second case, we combine Monte Carlo simulation with newly developed techniques in the field of imprecise probabilities. For the optimisation problem with uncertain constraints, this leads to two distinct approaches with different optimality criteria, namely maximality and maximinity, which we discuss and compare

    Decision-Making Under Moral Uncertainty

    Get PDF

    Another Approach to Consensus and Maximally Informed Opinions with Increasing Evidence

    Get PDF
    Merging of opinions results underwrite Bayesian rejoinders to complaints about the subjective nature of personal probability. Such results establish that sufficiently similar priors achieve consensus in the long run when fed the same increasing stream of evidence. Initial subjectivity, the line goes, is of mere transient significance, giving way to intersubjective agreement eventually. Here, we establish a merging result for sets of probability measures that are updated by Jeffrey conditioning. This generalizes a number of different merging results in the literature. We also show that such sets converge to a shared, maximally informed opinion. Convergence to a maximally informed opinion is a (weak) Jeffrey conditioning analogue of Bayesian “convergence to the truth” for conditional probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the philosophical significance of our study by detailing applications to the topics of dynamic coherence, imprecise probabilities, and probabilistic opinion pooling

    Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

    Get PDF
    Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data

    Dilating and contracting arbitrarily

    Get PDF
    Standard accuracy-based approaches to imprecise credences have the consequence that it is rational to move between precise and imprecise credences arbitrarily, without gaining any new evidence. Building on the Educated Guessing Framework of Horowitz (2019), we develop an alternative accuracy-based approach to imprecise credences that does not have this shortcoming. We argue that it is always irrational to move from a precise state to an imprecise state arbitrarily, however it can be rational to move from an imprecise state to a precise state arbitrarily
    corecore