Traveller Behaviour: Decision making in an unpredictable world

This paper discusses the nature and consequences of uncertainty in transport systems. Drawing on work from a number of fields, it addresses travellers’ abilities to predict variable phenomena, their perception of uncertainty, their attitude to risk and the various strategies they might adopt in response to uncertainty. It is argued that despite the increased interest in the representation of uncertainty in transport systems, most models treat uncertainty as a purely statistical issue and ignore the psychological aspects of response to uncertainty. The principle theories and models currently used to predict travellers’ response to uncertainty are presented and number of alternative modelling approaches are outlined. It is argued that the current generation of predictive models do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting response to changes in the degree of uncertainty or for predicting the likely effect of providing additional information. A number of alternative modelling approaches are identified to deal with travellers’ acquisition of information, the definition of their choice set and their choice between the available options. The use of heuristic approaches is recommended as an alternative to more conventional probabilistic methods

The role of decision confidence in advice-taking and trust formation

In a world where ideas flow freely between people across multiple platforms, we often find ourselves relying on others' information without an objective standard to judge whether those opinions are accurate. The present study tests an agreement-in-confidence hypothesis of advice perception, which holds that internal metacognitive evaluations of decision confidence play an important functional role in the perception and use of social information, such as peers' advice. We propose that confidence can be used, computationally, to estimate advisors' trustworthiness and advice reliability. Specifically, these processes are hypothesized to be particularly important in situations where objective feedback is absent or difficult to acquire. Here, we use a judge-advisor system paradigm to precisely manipulate the profiles of virtual advisors whose opinions are provided to participants performing a perceptual decision making task. We find that when advisors' and participants' judgments are independent, people are able to discriminate subtle advice features, like confidence calibration, whether or not objective feedback is available. However, when observers' judgments (and judgment errors) are correlated - as is the case in many social contexts - predictable distortions can be observed between feedback and feedback-free scenarios. A simple model of advice reliability estimation, endowed with metacognitive insight, is able to explain key patterns of results observed in the human data. We use agent-based modeling to explore implications of these individual-level decision strategies for network-level patterns of trust and belief formation

Structuring Decisions Under Deep Uncertainty

Innovative research on decision making under ‘deep uncertainty’ is underway in applied fields such as engineering and operational research, largely outside the view of normative theorists grounded in decision theory. Applied methods and tools for decision support under deep uncertainty go beyond standard decision theory in the attention that they give to the structuring of decisions. Decision structuring is an important part of a broader philosophy of managing uncertainty in decision making, and normative decision theorists can both learn from, and contribute to, the growing deep uncertainty decision support literature

Information sheets for patients with acute chest pain: randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To determine whether providing an information sheet to patients with acute chest pain reduces anxiety, improves health related quality of life, improves satisfaction with care, or alters subsequent symptoms or actions. Design: Single centre, non-blinded, randomised controlled trial. Setting: Chest pain unit of an emergency department. Participants: 700 consecutive patients with acute chest pain and no clear diagnosis at initial presentation. Interventions: After a diagnostic assessment patients were randomised to receive either standard verbal advice or verbal advice followed by an information sheet. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was anxiety (hospital anxiety and depression scale). Secondary outcomes were depression (hospital anxiety and depression scale), health related quality of life (SF-36), patient satisfaction, presentation with further chest pain within one month, lifestyle change (smoking cessation, diet, exercise), further information sought from other sources, and planned healthcare seeeking behaviour in response to further pain. Results 494 of 700 (70.6%) patients responded. Compared with those receiving standard verbal advice those receiving advice and an information sheet had lower mean hospital anxiety and depression scale scores for anxiety (7.61v8.63, difference 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 1.84) and depression (4.14 v 5.28, difference 1.14, 0.41 to 1.86) and higher scores for mental health and perception of general health on the SF-36. The information sheet had no significant effect on satisfaction with care, subsequent symptoms, lifestyle change, information seeking, or planned actions in the event of further pain. Conclusions: Provision of an information sheet to patients with acute chest pain can reduce anxiety and depression and improve mental health and perception of general health but does not alter satisfaction with care or other outcomes. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN85248020

Precautionary advice about mobile phones: Public understandings and intended responses

The official published version can be obtained from the link below - Copyright @ Taylor & FrancisThere is a widespread academic and policy debate about public responses to precaution in public health campaigns. This paper explores these issues in relation to the precautionary stance adopted in the UK around the regulation of mobile telecommunications. The aim of the paper is to examine the nature of attitudes to precaution, and the way in which these, along with other relevant variables, relate to the intention to adopt relevant behaviours. The results from an experimental study (n = 173) indicate that people distinguish between two dimensions of precaution: firstly in relation to its value or necessity per se and secondly as anchored to notions of governance. The two variables differentially relate to other variables including trust and uncertainty, and are predictive of intended behaviour change indirectly, through worry about mobile phone risks. Precautionary advice was generally interpreted as causing concern rather than providing reassurance. The results suggest that precaution may be considered a valuable stance but this does not mean that it is seen as good governance or that it will reduce concern. Whilst the discourse of precaution is aimed at reducing concern, it appears that the uptake of relevant behaviours is largely triggered by worry

Are Investors Warned by Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest? The Moderating Effect of Investment Horizon

Financial analysts are required to disclose conflicts of interest (COI) in their research reports, but there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of COI disclosures. We investigate whether the influence of disclosing COI in analyst reports on investors' decision making depends on investment horizon. Experimental results show that short-term investors who view a COI disclosure are significantly less willing to invest in the recommended stock compared to short-term investors who do not view such a disclosure, while the presence of a COI disclosure does not significantly affect long-term investors’ willingness to invest. Results further demonstrate that the COI disclosure decreases short-term investors’ willingness to invest by reducing their perception of analysts’ trustworthiness and expertness. This study provides evidence on when and how the COI disclosure can influence investors’ behavior and enhances our understanding of investors’ reactions to cautionary disclaimers

Getting By With The Advice Of Their Friends: Ceos' Advice Networks And Firms' Strategic Responses To Poor Performance

This paper theorizes that relatively poor firm performance can prompt chief executive officers (CEOs) to seek more advice from executives of other firms who are their friends or similar to them and less advice from acquaintances or dissimilar others and suggests how and why this pattern of advice seeking could reduce firms' propensity to change corporate strategy in response to poor performance. We test our hypotheses with large-sample survey data on the identities of CEOs' advice contacts and archival data on firm performance and corporate strategy. The results confirm our hypotheses and show that executives' social network ties can influence firms' responses to economic adversity, in particular by inhibiting strategic change in response to relatively poor firm performance. Additional findings indicate that CEOs' advice seeking in response to low performance may ultimately have negative consequences for subsequent performance, suggesting how CEOs' social network ties could play an indirect role in organizational decline and downward spirals in firm performance.Business Administratio

YIMBY Generation – yes in my back yard! UK householders pioneering microgeneration heat

This report summarises the responses to a survey of over 900 households (the largest such UK study to date) who were considering or buying microgeneration heat technologies. It reveals what makes people buy or reject them and provides insight into their experience of microgeneration. It covers four technologies, all of which were eligible for grants under phase 1 of the Low Carbon Buildings Programme (LCBP): – Solar thermal hot water – Ground source heat pumps – Wood-fuelled boilers – Automatic pellet-fed biomass room heaters or stoves. This report concerns part of an Open University and Energy Saving Trust project that aims to evaluate carbon saving microgeneration heat technologies for UK households, funded under the UK Higher Education Innovation Fund's Carbon Connections programme. This report builds on previous Open University research on consumer adoption of household renewables (e.g. Herring, Caird and Roy, 2007) and summarises the results of a scoping study on what drives and inhibits consumer adoption. This study also forms the background for a detailed technical and user evaluation by the Energy Saving Trust and Open University of a selected microgeneration heat technology – heat pumps – in real UK domestic installations