Deception and Convergence of Opinions Part 2: the Effects of Reproducibility

Recently Martins (Martins 2005) published an article in this journal analyzing the opinion dynamics of a neutral observer deciding between two competing scientific theories (Theory A and Theory B). The observer could not perform any experiments to verify either theory, but instead had to form its opinion solely by reading published articles reporting the experimental results of others. The observer was assumed to be rational (modeled with simple Bayesian rules) and the article examined how the observer\'s confidence in the correctness of the two theories changed as a function of number of articles read in support of each theory, and how much, if any, deception was believed to be present in the published articles. A key (and somewhat disturbing) result of this work was that for even relatively small amounts of perceived deception in the source articles, the observer could never be reasonably sure of which theory (A or B) was correct, even in the limit of the observer reading an infinite number of such articles. In this work we make a small extension to the Martins article by examining what happens when the observer only considers experimental results which have been reproduced by multiple parties. We find that even if the observer only requires that the articles he or she reads be verified by one additional party, its confidence in one of the two theories can converge to unity, regardless of the amount of amount of deception believed to be present in the source articles.Opinion Dynamics, Epistemology, Rational Agents, Deception, Confirmation Theory

Convergence and the Potential Ban on Interactive Product Placement in Germany

This paper addresses the economic impact of German advertising regulations. The digital convergence of media provides a starting point for the analysis. This convergence makes technically feasible “interactive product placement” (IPP), the integration of interactively purchasable products in television programs and movies for the purpose of advertising. Such advertising could conceivably outstrip traditional product placement as a source of revenues for the film industry. Moreover, IPP could provide valuable incentives to create new audiovisual hardware and software. As product placement is generally banned in Germany, we critically review relevant regulations. Additionally, a simple model is developed that allows for a welfare economic approach to the analysis of an IPP ban.Advertising regulations, German film industry, interactive product placement, law and economics

Verbal and Non-verbal Symptoms of Deception in the Eyes of Policemen and Psychologists

The objective of the study was to test how selected respondents (psychologists and police offi cers) evaluate the diagnostic value of symptoms (cues) of deception listed in literature on the subject. To achieve that, 16 verbal and non-verbal (behavioural) symptoms listed in literature as most typical and most frequently accompanying deceit were ever located by 100 police offi cers and 101 psychologists (n=201). Th eir task was to group the symptoms according to the following categories: “often present”, “rarely present”, and “never present”. Both the groups of respondents claimed that in their work they have to frequently decide whether their interlocutors tell the truth or lie, and are convinced that they are capable of accurate detection of deception through their assessment of verbal and non-verbal (behavioural) symptoms accompanying lie. Th e latter belief is clearly refuted by the results of all known experimental studies. In fact, police offi cers and psychologists agreed that the most diagnostic symptom is “avoidance of eye contact” (143 respondents categorised it as oft en present). “High frequency of eye blinking” was considered least diagnostic of the symptoms, with only 47 respondents claiming that it is frequent, together with “head scratching” with 51 considering it as occurring “often”). Convergence of the respondents’ opinions was high. No signifi cant diff erences between the occupational and age groups, and genders were discovered. Th e results of the study remain coherent with the results of studies by other authors maintaining that the skill of detecting deception in the interlocutor is determined neither by education, nor occupation, nor gender, nor the age of the person performing the detection

Social Effects in Science: Modelling Agents for a Better Scientific Practice

Science is a fundamental human activity and we trust its results because it has several error-correcting mechanisms. Its is subject to experimental tests that are replicated by independent parts. Given the huge amount of information available, scientists have to rely on the reports of others. This makes it possible for social effects to influence the scientific community. Here, an Opinion Dynamics agent model is proposed to describe this situation. The influence of Nature through experiments is described as an external field that acts on the experimental agents. We will see that the retirement of old scientists can be fundamental in the acceptance of a new theory. We will also investigate the interplay between social influence and observations. This will allow us to gain insight in the problem of when social effects can have negligible effects in the conclusions of a scientific community and when we should worry about them.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Worry and social desirability: Opposite relationships for socio-political and social-evaluation worries

The present article investigates the relationship between social desirability and worry. In particular, it addresses the question of whether socio-political worries (i.e. worries about societal or environmental problems) show a different relationship with social desirability than worries related to one's social-evaluative self-concept (i.e. worries about one's own relationships, future, work, or finances). A sample of 155 students responded to self-report questionnaires on worry and social desirability, first under standard instructions and then under social desirability-provoking instructions (imaginary job-application instructions). As expected, results showed opposite relationships for socio-political and social-evaluation worries. First, socio-political worries showed positive correlations with scores from the social desirability questionnaire, whereas social-evaluation worries showed negative correlations. Second, endorsements of socio-political worries increased under social desirability-provoking instructions, whereas those of social-evaluation worries decreased. However, all correlations between self-reported worry and social-desirability scores were rather small. Moreover, in absolute terms, socio-political worries did not show any greater social-desirability bias than social-evaluation worries. Implications for self-report measures of socio-political worries (e.g. environmental worry, worry about technological risks) and directions for future research are discussed

Measuring and Validating Emotional Intelligence as Performance or Self-Report

This is a study of emotional intelligence (EI). EI was measured by performance and self-report tasks. Data were also obtained on basic values, some standard personality dimensions such as those specified in the five-factor model, social adjustment and several scales of impression management. Criteria were loneliness, work-family life balance and Internet addiction, and also measures of emotional and value deviance. Participants were college students in a business education program who participated anonymously in the extensive test session, which took about six hours to complete. It was found that EI measures - both self-report and performance - intercorrelated as expected, and that EI was strongly related as expected to criteria. People high in EI reported less loneliness, less Internet addiction and better work/studies - leisure/family balance. Impression management was more strongly related to self-report data than to performance. Self-report data were to a large extent accounted for by measures of personality according to the five-factor model, but performance measures were not. Finally, the extent of faking was measured and controlled for.emotional intelligence; personality; five-factor model; and impression management

Expressive political behaviour : foundations, scope and implications

A growing literature has focused attention on ‘expressive’ rather than ‘instrumental’ behaviour in political settings, particularly voting. A common criticism of the expressive idea is that it is ad hoc and lacks both predictive and normative bite. No clear definition of expressive behaviour has gained wide acceptance yet, and no detailed understanding of the range of foundations of specific expressive motivations has emerged. This article provides a foundational discussion and definition of expressive behaviour accounting for a range of factors. The content of expressive choice – distinguishing between identity-based, moral and social cases – is discussed and related to the specific theories of expressive choice in the literature. There is also a discussion of the normative and institutional implications of expressive behaviour