25,718 research outputs found
Postmortem Analysis of Decayed Online Social Communities: Cascade Pattern Analysis and Prediction
Recently, many online social networks, such as MySpace, Orkut, and
Friendster, have faced inactivity decay of their members, which contributed to
the collapse of these networks. The reasons, mechanics, and prevention
mechanisms of such inactivity decay are not fully understood. In this work, we
analyze decayed and alive sub-websites from the StackExchange platform. The
analysis mainly focuses on the inactivity cascades that occur among the members
of these communities. We provide measures to understand the decay process and
statistical analysis to extract the patterns that accompany the inactivity
decay. Additionally, we predict cascade size and cascade virality using machine
learning. The results of this work include a statistically significant
difference of the decay patterns between the decayed and the alive
sub-websites. These patterns are mainly: cascade size, cascade virality,
cascade duration, and cascade similarity. Additionally, the contributed
prediction framework showed satisfactory prediction results compared to a
baseline predictor. Supported by empirical evidence, the main findings of this
work are: (1) the decay process is not governed by only one network measure; it
is better described using multiple measures; (2) the expert members of the
StackExchange sub-websites were mainly responsible for the activity or
inactivity of the StackExchange sub-websites; (3) the Statistics sub-website is
going through decay dynamics that may lead to it becoming fully-decayed; and
(4) decayed sub-websites were originally less resilient to inactivity decay,
unlike the alive sub-websites
Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future
Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this
paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the
most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism
in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been
successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into
account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a
temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node
strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential
aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance
of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting
the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential
objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The
effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed
in detail
Community Aliveness: Discovering Interaction Decay Patterns in Online Social Communities
Online Social Communities (OSCs) provide a medium for connecting people,
sharing news, eliciting information, and finding jobs, among others. The
dynamics of the interaction among the members of OSCs is not always growth
dynamics. Instead, a or dynamics often
happens, which makes an OSC obsolete. Understanding the behavior and the
characteristics of the members of an inactive community help to sustain the
growth dynamics of these communities and, possibly, prevents them from being
out of service. In this work, we provide two prediction models for predicting
the interaction decay of community members, namely: a Simple Threshold Model
(STM) and a supervised machine learning classification framework. We conducted
evaluation experiments for our prediction models supported by a of decayed communities extracted from the StackExchange platform. The
results of the experiments revealed that it is possible, with satisfactory
prediction performance in terms of the F1-score and the accuracy, to predict
the decay of the activity of the members of these communities using
network-based attributes and network-exogenous attributes of the members. The
upper bound of the prediction performance of the methods we used is and
for the F1-score and the accuracy, respectively. These results indicate
that network-based attributes are correlated with the activity of the members
and that we can find decay patterns in terms of these attributes. The results
also showed that the structure of the decayed communities can be used to
support the alive communities by discovering inactive members.Comment: pre-print for the 4th European Network Intelligence Conference -
11-12 September 2017 Duisburg, German
Empirical studies on the network of social groups: the case of Tencent QQ
Participation in social groups are important but the collective behaviors of
human as a group are difficult to analyze due to the difficulties to quantify
ordinary social relation, group membership, and to collect a comprehensive
dataset. Such difficulties can be circumvented by analyzing online social
networks. In this paper, we analyze a comprehensive dataset obtained from
Tencent QQ, an instant messenger with the highest market share in China.
Specifically, we analyze three derivative networks involving groups and their
members -- the hypergraph of groups, the network of groups and the user network
-- to reveal social interactions at microscopic and mesoscopic level. Our
results uncover interesting behaviors on the growth of user groups, the
interactions between groups, and their relationship with member age and gender.
These findings lead to insights which are difficult to obtain in ordinary
social networks.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure
The Lifecycles of Apps in a Social Ecosystem
Apps are emerging as an important form of on-line content, and they combine
aspects of Web usage in interesting ways --- they exhibit a rich temporal
structure of user adoption and long-term engagement, and they exist in a
broader social ecosystem that helps drive these patterns of adoption and
engagement. It has been difficult, however, to study apps in their natural
setting since this requires a simultaneous analysis of a large set of popular
apps and the underlying social network they inhabit.
In this work we address this challenge through an analysis of the collection
of apps on Facebook Login, developing a novel framework for analyzing both
temporal and social properties. At the temporal level, we develop a retention
model that represents a user's tendency to return to an app using a very small
parameter set. At the social level, we organize the space of apps along two
fundamental axes --- popularity and sociality --- and we show how a user's
probability of adopting an app depends both on properties of the local network
structure and on the match between the user's attributes, his or her friends'
attributes, and the dominant attributes within the app's user population. We
also develop models that show the importance of different feature sets with
strong performance in predicting app success.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, International World Wide Web
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