The compression of deaths above the mode

Kannisto (2001) has shown that as the frequency distribution of ages at death has shifted to the right, the age distribution of deaths above the modal age has become more compressed. In order to further investigate this old-age mortality compression, we adopt the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999). Based on the model, we show that three key measures of old-age mortality (the modal age of adult deaths, the life expectancy at the modal age, and the standard deviation of ages at death above the mode) can be estimated fairly accurately from death rates at only two suitably chosen high ages (70 and 90 in this study). The distribution of deaths above the modal age becomes compressed when the logits of death rates fall more at the lower age than at the higher age. Our analysis of mortality time series in six countries, using the logistic model, endorsed Kannisto’s conclusion. Some possible reasons for the compression are discussed.compression of mortality, lexis model, logistic model, modal age of death, oldest old mortality decline, standard deviation

Changes in the age-at-death distribution in four low mortality countries: A nonparametric approach

Since the beginning of the twentieth century, important transformations have occurred in the age-at-death distribution within human populations. We propose a flexible nonparametric smoothing approach based on P-splines to refine the monitoring of these changes. Using data from the Human Mortality Database for four low mortality countries, namely Canada (1921-2007), France (1920-2009), Japan (1947-2009), and the USA (1945-2007), we find that the general scenario of compression of mortality no longer describes appropriately some of the recent adult mortality trends recorded. Indeed, reductions in the variability of age at death above the mode have stopped since the early 1990s in Japan and since the early 2000s for Canadian, US, and French women, while their respective modal age at death continued to increase. These findings provide additional support to the shifting mortality scenario, using an alternative method free from any assumption on the shape of the age-at-death distribution.modal age of death, old-age mortality compression, P-spline smoothing, shifting mortality

A possible Macronova in the late afterglow of the `long-short' burst GRB 060614

Long-duration ($>2$ s) $\gamma$-ray bursts that are believed to originate from the death of massive stars are expected to be accompanied by supernovae. GRB 060614, that lasted 102 s, lacks a supernova-like emission down to very stringent limits and its physical origin is still debated. Here we report the discovery of near-infrared bump that is significantly above the regular decaying afterglow. This red bump is inconsistent with even the weakest known supernova. However, it can arise from a Li-Paczy\'{n}ski macronova $-$ the radioactive decay of debris following a compact binary merger. If this interpretation is correct GRB 060614 arose from a compact binary merger rather than from the death of a massive star and it was a site of a significant production of heavy r-process elements. The significant ejected mass favors a black hole-neutron star merger but a double neutron star merger cannot be ruled out.Comment: Minor revision; The version published in Nature Communication

Adipose Tissue Distribution and Survival Among Women with Nonmetastatic Breast Cancer.

ObjectivePrevious studies of breast cancer survival have not considered specific depots of adipose tissue such as subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT).MethodsThis study assessed these relationships among 3,235 women with stage II and III breast cancer diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California and between 2000 and 2012 at Dana Farber Cancer Institute. SAT and VAT areas (in centimeters squared) were calculated from routine computed tomography scans within 6 (median: 1.2) months of diagnosis, covariates were collected from electronic health records, and vital status was assessed by death records. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox regression.ResultsSAT and VAT ranged from 19.0 to 891 cm2 and from 0.484 to 454 cm2 , respectively. SAT was related to increased risk of death (127-cm2 increase; HR [95% CI]: 1.13 [1.02-1.26]), but no relationship was found with VAT (78.18-cm2 increase; HR [95% CI]: 1.02 [0.91-1.14]). An association with VAT was noted among women with stage II cancer (stage II: HR: 1.17 [95% CI: 0.99-1.39]; stage III: HR: 0.90 [95% CI: 0.76-1.07]; P interaction < 0.01). Joint increases in SAT and VAT were associated with mortality above either alone (simultaneous 1-SD increase: HR 1.19 [95% CI: 1.05-1.34]).ConclusionsSAT may be an underappreciated risk factor for breast cancer-related death

It’s time we made smoking history! Tobacco control in Malta : the present and the future

Tobacco products have no safe level of consumption. They are the only legal consumer products that cause ill health and premature death when used exactly as the manufacturer intends. Unless concerted action is taken quickly, 250 million of today’s children will die prematurely from an avoidable cause -tobacco use. The above declarations are not the author’s, but statements of the World Health Organisation (WHO). This article is a brief overview of tobacco control in Malta regarding the present situation and plans for the future, and is based on the following WHO Ten-Point Programme for Successful Tobacco Control.peer-reviewe

English economic growth, 1270-1700

We provide annual estimates of GDP for England over the period 1270-1700, constructed from the output side. The GDP data are combined with population estimates to calculate GDP per capita. Sectoral price data and estimates of nominal GDP are also provided. We find per capita income growth of 0.20 per cent per annum, although growth was episodic, with the strongest growth after the Black Death and in the second half of the seventeenth century. Living standards in the late medieval period were well above “bare bones subsistence”, although levels of kilocalorie consumption per head were modest because of the very large share of pastoral production in agriculture