Deduction of Initial Strategy Distributions of Agents in Mix-game Model

This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game model which is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-game to predict Shanghai Index, we find the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 2 who play minority game, but less sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 1 who play majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the initial strategy distributions and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.Comment: 8 figures, 2 tables, 10 page

Testing for Multiple Bubbles 1: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500

Published in International Economic Review, https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12132</p

Testing for Multiple Bubbles 2: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors

Singapore MOE Academic Research Tier 2Published in International Economic Review, https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12131</p

Anchoring historical sequences using a new source of astro-chronological tie-points

The discovery of past spikes in atmospheric radiocarbon activity, caused by major solar energetic particle events, has opened up new possibilities for high-precision chronometry. The two spikes, or Miyake Events, have now been widely identified in tree-rings that grew in the years 775 and 994 CE. Furthermore, all other plant material that grew in these years would also have incorporated the anomalously high concentrations of radiocarbon. Crucially, some plant-based artefacts, such as papyrus documents, timber beams and linen garments, can also be allocated to specific positions within long, currently unfixed, historical sequences. Thus, Miyake Events represent a new source of tie-points that could provide the means for anchoring early chronologies to the absolute timescale. Here, we explore this possibility, outlining the most expeditious approaches, the current challenges and obstacles, and how they might best be overcome.Comment: 11 pages, accepted to Royal Society Proc

A case study of case studies: producing real world learning within the business classroom

Teaching and learning about business organisations and the environment in which they operate is contained within a curriculum but context and events in which they operate is constantly changing. In responding to this context one solution is to construct and use case-studies, but these are (a) time-consuming and expensive to produce (b) need constant up-dating (c) may be unsuited for classrooms. This paper shows how these problems have been overcome by using a innovative methodology based in a continuing public-private partnership (1994-present) between H.E., schools and business organisations. The organisations pay to contribute - and distribute - the case-studies which must conform to requirements which ensure classroom materials are relevant, rigorous, up-to-date, and unbiased: cross-referenced to the curriculum; both practical and theoretical; designed to enrich classroom experiences; ethically-based, taking into account the advice of teachers. The paper argues for a way of producing curriculum materials which itself constitutes a methodological contribution to the uses of case-study in research-based learning

Ericka L. Daniels - Distinguishing between Risk Factors for Aggression Perpetration, and Victimization in Adolescent Dating Relationships

Objective: Aggression in adolescent romantic relationships occurs at a substantial rate and has negative effects on victims. This study will investigate risk factors that may anticipate a person’s role as a victim or perpetrator of aggression in dating relationships. Also, this study will examine whether males or females are more likely to perpetrate or be victimized by dating aggression. Expanding research on relationship aggression is important because TDV can cause significant mental and physical health problems (e.g. distress, physical injuries, and panic attacks). We focused on risk factors in four general categories: family, cognitions, emotions, and alcohol use. Some of these risk factors include: exposure to relationship violence, whether between the child and a parent or between parents, internalizing cognitions and behaviors, depressive symptoms, alcohol use, and hostility. Methods: Participants were undergraduate students from a private institution. Data was collected through a number of questionnaires completed online. Results: We found that majority of the predictors were common to both victimization and perpetration, such as alexithymia, callous, interparental and parent-child conflict. We also found unique predictors of both victimization and perpetration, which were alcohol use, and relationship quality with one’s partner. Also, attitudes accepting and justifying dating aggression uniquely predicted perpetration only. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that each unique predictor should be considered when developing strategies to reduce or prevent aggression in romantic relationships. Our study implies that couples should use alcohol moderately, find satisfaction in one’s relationship partner, and evaluate one’s beliefs about dating aggression in order to avoid TDV.https://epublications.marquette.edu/mcnair_2013/1011/thumbnail.jp

The Potential Applications of Optical Dating to the Sandy Uplands of East Texas and Northwest Louisiana

The fine, sandy soils of East Texas and Northwest Louisiana have been the source of archaeological debate for some time. This discourse concerns the mode of burial of cultural material in the easily eroded soils and the mechanics of recent (Holocene) landform evolution. Because these deposits are typically well-drained, organic matter does not preserve well, thus hindering the dating of the geomorphic events that figure prominently in their development and the prehistoric occupations which lie buried throughout uplands of this region. A relatively new dating technique, optical dating, has much to offer this region and the archaeological community as it measures the period of time that has elapsed since sand grains were last exposed to sunlight. Hence, it directly dates the time of sediment transportation and deposition. This method is therefore applicable to a number of archaeological and geomorphic processes which may not be dated by traditional methods, owing to the lack of organic matter suitable for radiocarbon dating. In geomorphic contexts, optical dating may be preferred over radiocarbon as it directly dates the time of sedimentation rather than the age of organic matter in features such as buried soils that may be significantly different from the geomorphic event which fossilized the soil

Assessing the Need and Receptivity for an Integrated Healthy Sexual and Dating Relationships Intervention for Community College Students

Background: In emerging adulthood, youth often become involved in more serious romantic relationships. However, many lack the skills to avoid an unplanned pregnancy or sexually transmitted infection (STI), and to ensure a healthy dating relationship. Community college students serve nearly half of all undergraduate students in the United States; yet, community colleges typically lack resources for sexual health promotion. Purpose: To assess the need and receptivity for a web-based integrated healthy sexual and dating relationships intervention among community college students. Methods: In summer 2016, we partnered with three community colleges in South Central Texas to conduct an online survey of students’ sexual behaviors and dating relationships, and usability testing of activities from an integrated, web-based healthy sexual and dating relationship intervention. Results: Online survey participants (n=271) were 70% female, 38% Hispanic, 24% White, 17% Black, and 16% Asian; 20% self-identified as sexual minority; mean age was 20.8 years (SD = 2.05). Participants reported high rates of sexual risk behavior including sex without a condom or an effective birth control method, low use of long-acting reversible contraception, frequent use of emergency contraception, and low use of dual protection to prevent pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections. Two-thirds reported experiencing any type of dating violence perpetration or victimization in the past year. Usability testing participants (n=14) were 86% female, 42% Hispanic, 50% Asian/Pacific Islander, 14% Black, and 7% White; 71% were sexually experienced; mean age was 20.7 years (SD = 1.64). The web-based activities were highly rated in terms of usability parameters, and positively impacted short-term psychosocial outcomes related to condom use, accessing contraceptive health services, and constructive interpersonal conflict resolution. Conclusion: Findings underscore the high need and receptivity for an integrated healthy sexual and dating relationship web-based intervention among community college students, an understudied subgroup of youth in emerging adulthood